OK OK I realize that 9 of the last game 7 home teams have won. I think everyone knows that by now. Bet KC and cash that easy ticket! Vegas is always just giving away free money... LOL..
KC already won the game 3 pitching matchup with Guthrie vs Hudson. Guthrie has a little over a 1 ER last 3 appearances. KC just blew out San Fran 10-0 and are playing game 7 at home with one of the loudest crowds you can have in baseball. Line is posted give or take around -135. I don't buy into free money. I know it happens and I am not claiming to play San Fran just because it feels like the "sharp" side to be on.
I feel that it is a complete toss up with a winner tonight. accuscore simulations on this game show a TINY advantage to San Fran and attributes it to a little work from BUM and each inning he pitches favors there chances a little more. You might not believe in simulation predictions but they are 5-1 so far in this series.
Guthrie 1.59 ERA last 3 app.
Hudson 3.09 ERA last 3 road starts
Both teams will be using entire pen at any point in time in the game. Vegas hasn't moved off of 7 even though 5 of the last 7 playoff home games for KC have gone OVER. I see a lot of value in the UNDER tonight. I am seeing a 3-2, 4-2 type game. I think we see BUM pitch innings 4-6 or 5-7. Good luck whatever you pick.
4 UNITS on Under 7
1 UNIT on San Fran+1.5
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