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    All Forums | MLB Betting Forum

    On the subject of OVERS

    «First Previous 12
    pipedoctor
    KeyElement
    BarneysDad
    undermysac
    Ghorvath32
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    pipedoctor
    pipedoctor
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    Posted: Jun. 15, 2019 - 4:03 PM ET #26

    total talk 

    jmho

    ...i always keep a close eye on travel day unders and 'speed games' (where one, or both teams need to eat and run)

    ...home plate umpire tendencies (small/large strike zone critical imho) read, read and read some more, almost cap umpire tendencies as much as current team form...pitchers will make minor adjustments knowing umpire tendencies

    ...how fast does a pitcher 'work'...again, jmho a fast working pitcher sometimes grabs 'psychological command' over the batter, not letting the batter work the count

    ...weather, wind direction, humidity, light rain, cold

    ...al vs nl, interleague, designated hitter or not

    ...and of course, condition of the bullpens

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    total talk 

    jmho

    ...i always keep a close eye on travel day unders and 'speed games' (where one, or both teams need to eat and run)

    ...home plate umpire tendencies (small/large strike zone critical imho) read, read and read some more, almost cap umpire tendencies as much as current team form...pitchers will make minor adjustments knowing umpire tendencies

    ...how fast does a pitcher 'work'...again, jmho a fast working pitcher sometimes grabs 'psychological command' over the batter, not letting the batter work the count

    ...weather, wind direction, humidity, light rain, cold

    ...al vs nl, interleague, designated hitter or not

    ...and of course, condition of the bullpens

     
    KeyElement
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    Posted: Jun. 15, 2019 - 4:15 PM ET #27

    Quote Originally Posted by Unclebenelli:

    Yes but isn’t that just handicapping?  

    Much more extensively than the average "Joe Six Pack" will get into it. Success is work, and if you think most of the guys on this site actually work at it, you have another thought or two coming. Handicapping here is whatever my dad, uncle, older brother or friend told me verbally. Losing for years is not proof that they were wrong. The "fall back position" is listen to the other losers on Covers.


    Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
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    Quote Originally Posted by Unclebenelli:

    Yes but isn’t that just handicapping?  

    Much more extensively than the average "Joe Six Pack" will get into it. Success is work, and if you think most of the guys on this site actually work at it, you have another thought or two coming. Handicapping here is whatever my dad, uncle, older brother or friend told me verbally. Losing for years is not proof that they were wrong. The "fall back position" is listen to the other losers on Covers.


     
    BarneysDad
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    Posted: Jun. 15, 2019 - 4:33 PM ET #28

    5 he in inning and half in Washington 
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    5 he in inning and half in Washington 
     
    undermysac
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    Posted: Jun. 15, 2019 - 4:33 PM ET #29

    Today...the public is on every over but 2, AZ/WAS and KC/MIN.

    All ready 6 runs top of the 2nd in Washington 

    Strasburg must be an auto under right? Do they even know who Clarke is?

    Glenn freaking Sparkman is pitching for KC today...Odorizzi I get but c'mon.
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    Today...the public is on every over but 2, AZ/WAS and KC/MIN.

    All ready 6 runs top of the 2nd in Washington 

    Strasburg must be an auto under right? Do they even know who Clarke is?

    Glenn freaking Sparkman is pitching for KC today...Odorizzi I get but c'mon.
     
    BarneysDad
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    Posted: Jun. 15, 2019 - 4:36 PM ET #30

    Ahhhh Nationaly televised game. Hmmmmmm..  Give the fans what they want Right. Oversized golf balls
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    Ahhhh Nationaly televised game. Hmmmmmm..  Give the fans what they want Right. Oversized golf balls
     
    BarneysDad
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    Posted: Jun. 15, 2019 - 4:45 PM ET #31

    Even the sound off the bat doesn't have the crack noise any longer
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    Even the sound off the bat doesn't have the crack noise any longer
     
    KeyElement
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    Posted: Jun. 15, 2019 - 6:11 PM ET #32

    The thread is losing its direction guys. It was intended to be a strategy discussion, not what is happening on any one given day.
    Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
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    The thread is losing its direction guys. It was intended to be a strategy discussion, not what is happening on any one given day.
     
    pipedoctor
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    Posted: Jun. 15, 2019 - 7:22 PM ET #33

    ...i study ballpark dimensions also, power allys/short porch, twi-light/sun set shadows, turf or grass 
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    ...i study ballpark dimensions also, power allys/short porch, twi-light/sun set shadows, turf or grass 
     
    Ghorvath32
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    Posted: Jun. 16, 2019 - 1:33 AM ET #34

    Quote Originally Posted by KeyElement:

    Quote Originally Posted by Unclebenelli:

    Yes but isn’t that just handicapping?  
    Much more extensively than the average "Joe Six Pack" will get into it. Success is work, and if you think most of the guys on this site actually work at it, you have another thought or two coming. Handicapping here is whatever my dad, uncle, older brother or friend told me verbally. Losing for years is not proof that they were wrong. The "fall back position" is listen to the other losers on Covers.

     

    Someone on here said yesterday, in baseball over and unders balance theirselves out, rockies have gotten alot of overs lately so im on the under lol 

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    Quote Originally Posted by KeyElement:

    Quote Originally Posted by Unclebenelli:

    Yes but isn’t that just handicapping?  
    Much more extensively than the average "Joe Six Pack" will get into it. Success is work, and if you think most of the guys on this site actually work at it, you have another thought or two coming. Handicapping here is whatever my dad, uncle, older brother or friend told me verbally. Losing for years is not proof that they were wrong. The "fall back position" is listen to the other losers on Covers.

     

    Someone on here said yesterday, in baseball over and unders balance theirselves out, rockies have gotten alot of overs lately so im on the under lol 

     
    StumpTownStu
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    Posted: Jun. 16, 2019 - 4:35 AM ET #35

    Quote Originally Posted by pipedoctor:

    ...i study ballpark dimensions also, power allys/short porch, twi-light/sun set shadows, turf or grass

    I cap all of that except for twilight/sunset shadows. Would be interested in your insight in this.

    R.I.P. #94 MARSHAWN KNEELAND - DC4L
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    Quote Originally Posted by pipedoctor:

    ...i study ballpark dimensions also, power allys/short porch, twi-light/sun set shadows, turf or grass

    I cap all of that except for twilight/sunset shadows. Would be interested in your insight in this.

     
    GanjaGandalf
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    Posted: Jun. 16, 2019 - 8:57 AM ET #36

    An under strategy that works quite good for me is to take Pitchers who mostly allow soft contact in a Pitcher friendly ballpark with Wind blowing in.

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    An under strategy that works quite good for me is to take Pitchers who mostly allow soft contact in a Pitcher friendly ballpark with Wind blowing in.

     
    pipedoctor
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    Posted: Jun. 16, 2019 - 9:19 AM ET #37

    @stupmtownstu.. google a ny times article called 'post season afternoon starts put shadows in play' ...gives a good perspective of shadows hitting the infield, who benefits and who doesn't

    ...not revealing anything groundbreaking new with capping, just sharing my approach that has helped buy some shiny new guitars, and family trips to the carribean over the years 
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    @stupmtownstu.. google a ny times article called 'post season afternoon starts put shadows in play' ...gives a good perspective of shadows hitting the infield, who benefits and who doesn't

    ...not revealing anything groundbreaking new with capping, just sharing my approach that has helped buy some shiny new guitars, and family trips to the carribean over the years 
     
    concavecapital
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    Posted: Jun. 16, 2019 - 7:00 PM ET #38

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    StumpTownStu
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    Posted: Jun. 16, 2019 - 10:00 PM ET #39

    Bump

    R.I.P. #94 MARSHAWN KNEELAND - DC4L
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    Bump

     
    concavecapital
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    Posted: Jun. 16, 2019 - 10:26 PM ET #40

    10 of the first 11 went over and a push in there 
    The last three of the night stayed under 
    kinda goofy as Sunday’s usually tend to be under days in my opinion.  When do books just throw a 10 spot out there for almost every game? 
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    10 of the first 11 went over and a push in there 
    The last three of the night stayed under 
    kinda goofy as Sunday’s usually tend to be under days in my opinion.  When do books just throw a 10 spot out there for almost every game? 
     
    BarneysDad
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    Posted: Jun. 16, 2019 - 10:39 PM ET #41

    It is so painfully obvious to watch the ball go off the bat. Little check swings for HR's and so forth. Can we bring back the asterisk conversation from years ago.. Anyways keep betting overs till the wheels fall off or MLB dupes us by going back to the real balls. Every announcer always coments on how many HR's and runs scored and you know they want to tell you but can't because of MLB 
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    It is so painfully obvious to watch the ball go off the bat. Little check swings for HR's and so forth. Can we bring back the asterisk conversation from years ago.. Anyways keep betting overs till the wheels fall off or MLB dupes us by going back to the real balls. Every announcer always coments on how many HR's and runs scored and you know they want to tell you but can't because of MLB 
     
    BarneysDad
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    Posted: Jun. 16, 2019 - 10:51 PM ET #42

    The most obvious IMHO is the foul balls that bounce of the cement!! Hello
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    The most obvious IMHO is the foul balls that bounce of the cement!! Hello
     
    Justasquirrel
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    Posted: Jun. 16, 2019 - 10:59 PM ET #43

    really dumb post by OP.  avg runs per game means literally nothing when it comes to overs.  when a game goes 2-1 and 3 games go 6-5

    you avg out to 9 runs and have 3 overs.  that is how this year has gone.  again, really dumb OP
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    really dumb post by OP.  avg runs per game means literally nothing when it comes to overs.  when a game goes 2-1 and 3 games go 6-5

    you avg out to 9 runs and have 3 overs.  that is how this year has gone.  again, really dumb OP
     
    StumpTownStu
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    Posted: Jun. 16, 2019 - 11:19 PM ET #44

    Quote Originally Posted by BarneysDad:

    It is so painfully obvious to watch the ball go off the bat. Little check swings for HR's and so forth. Can we bring back the asterisk conversation from years ago.. Anyways keep betting overs till the wheels fall off or MLB dupes us by going back to the real balls. Every announcer always coments on how many HR's and runs scored and you know they want to tell you but can't because of MLB

    Ken Griffey Jr was my favorite player as a kid. I remember his swing as a kid. The bat speed and the way the ball took off on a line. Now it's these "launch angle" flicks and the ball just takes off. The greats, from Griffey Jr all the way back to George Herman Ruth, even Bonds, would hit 80-90 home runs in this era. Better swings, better eyes. The league saw the response to the steroid era and the home run race and decided they needed to recreate it. They didn't though. It took more than steroids to make great hitters so while more were juicing than got caught, a few really took advantage. And those stories captivated the fans. Pitchers were juicing too and we had dominant pitching stories. Lights out 1.2.3 closers, ect. And baseball was still baseball. Now we have silly 14-12 games literally everyday. That's not entertaining to me. The MLB is risking retaining it's loyal fans in an attempt to garner new fans and I feel that's a mistake.

    R.I.P. #94 MARSHAWN KNEELAND - DC4L
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    Quote Originally Posted by BarneysDad:

    It is so painfully obvious to watch the ball go off the bat. Little check swings for HR's and so forth. Can we bring back the asterisk conversation from years ago.. Anyways keep betting overs till the wheels fall off or MLB dupes us by going back to the real balls. Every announcer always coments on how many HR's and runs scored and you know they want to tell you but can't because of MLB

    Ken Griffey Jr was my favorite player as a kid. I remember his swing as a kid. The bat speed and the way the ball took off on a line. Now it's these "launch angle" flicks and the ball just takes off. The greats, from Griffey Jr all the way back to George Herman Ruth, even Bonds, would hit 80-90 home runs in this era. Better swings, better eyes. The league saw the response to the steroid era and the home run race and decided they needed to recreate it. They didn't though. It took more than steroids to make great hitters so while more were juicing than got caught, a few really took advantage. And those stories captivated the fans. Pitchers were juicing too and we had dominant pitching stories. Lights out 1.2.3 closers, ect. And baseball was still baseball. Now we have silly 14-12 games literally everyday. That's not entertaining to me. The MLB is risking retaining it's loyal fans in an attempt to garner new fans and I feel that's a mistake.

     
    BarneysDad
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    Posted: Jun. 16, 2019 - 11:28 PM ET #45

    Quote Originally Posted by StumpTownStu:

    Ken Griffey Jr was my favorite player as a kid. I remember his swing as a kid. The bat speed and the way the ball took off on a line. Now it's these "launch angle" flicks and the ball just takes off. The greats, from Griffey Jr all the way back to George Herman Ruth, even Bonds, would hit 80-90 home runs in this era. Better swings, better eyes. The league saw the response to the steroid era and the home run race and decided they needed to recreate it. They didn't though. It took more than steroids to make great hitters so while more were juicing than got caught, a few really took advantage. And those stories captivated the fans. Pitchers were juicing too and we had dominant pitching stories. Lights out 1.2.3 closers, ect. And baseball was still baseball. Now we have silly 14-12 games literally everyday. That's not entertaining to me. The MLB is risking retaining it's loyal fans in an attempt to garner new fans and I feel that's a mistake.

    To anyone who would listen I always bring up the hype and buzz the steroid brothers Big Mac and Soda created chasing the record and Mr barryroid Bonds going for Aarons title. They saw the writing on the wall. 
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    Quote Originally Posted by StumpTownStu:

    Ken Griffey Jr was my favorite player as a kid. I remember his swing as a kid. The bat speed and the way the ball took off on a line. Now it's these "launch angle" flicks and the ball just takes off. The greats, from Griffey Jr all the way back to George Herman Ruth, even Bonds, would hit 80-90 home runs in this era. Better swings, better eyes. The league saw the response to the steroid era and the home run race and decided they needed to recreate it. They didn't though. It took more than steroids to make great hitters so while more were juicing than got caught, a few really took advantage. And those stories captivated the fans. Pitchers were juicing too and we had dominant pitching stories. Lights out 1.2.3 closers, ect. And baseball was still baseball. Now we have silly 14-12 games literally everyday. That's not entertaining to me. The MLB is risking retaining it's loyal fans in an attempt to garner new fans and I feel that's a mistake.

    To anyone who would listen I always bring up the hype and buzz the steroid brothers Big Mac and Soda created chasing the record and Mr barryroid Bonds going for Aarons title. They saw the writing on the wall. 
     
    BarneysDad
    BarneysDad
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    Posted: Jun. 16, 2019 - 11:30 PM ET #46

    I think it will backfire someday and MLB will become a thing of the past just a memory of the good old days and a time gone by
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    I think it will backfire someday and MLB will become a thing of the past just a memory of the good old days and a time gone by
     
     
    BarneysDad
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    Posted: Jun. 16, 2019 - 11:38 PM ET #47

    Meant bygone era
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    Meant bygone era
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