Posted:
#1
MLB is finally back and as much as I like to wait a week or two before playing to feel out the teams, my inner gambling addict tells me to go for it tomorrow here are some plays I like.
Homerun Pick-
Dodgers Over 6
This is intriguing to me, this Padres rotation is patch work top to bottom and an early line at 6 is just too tasty for me to pass up against the dodgers bats, I expect Kersh to cruise and the Dodgers bats to feast on Jhoulys Chacin tomorrow. This is a guy who wasn't good enough to stick in an absolutely depleted Angels rotation last year. Grab it before it jumps to 7!
Value ML's-
Rockies -115
Jon Gray is a potential early season candidate for NL ROY and this guy has electric stuff. For once, pitching in an away park may give you the advantage here when you play at home in Coors field. I expect Jon Gray to cruise through this line up today and I expect this potent Rockies lineup to attack Junior Guerra and maybe not torch him but definitely make him get his work in and make the Brew Crew make an early bullpen call.
Blue Jays +115
This game has good value here with Estrada going up young stud Kevin Gausman, on the surface the O's look like a no brainer pick at home but Estrada is a very consistent pitcher and has owned the O's in the past. I think there is good enough value here for you to roll this pick out given I think the line ups are fairly evenly matched here. The loss of Encarnacion is huge but Kendrys Morales is a very good hitter in his own right and should be able to shoulder some of the load. O's definitely have the bullpen edge with Osuna out but again I think the value here is too good to pass up on a +115 dog in the Jays.
Royals -105
Danny Duffy toeing the rubber against Ervin Santana in this one looks great to me. Duffy broke out last year and truly was able to finally harness his control and dominate big league bats. This carried over into the WBC and Duffy looks in mid season form to me, no slowing down today against a rebuilding Twins team. I think this will be a rubber match with the Royals taking the lead late with Herrera nailing down a save.
Mariners +125
This one may be a stretch but I really think this Mariners team will be a force to be reckoned with this year. Dallas Keuchel does not scare me and although I do think he rebounds this year, no where near what he was 2 years ago. This is a deep Mariners lineup 1-9 that can beat you in a lot of ways and I think they will tee off against Keuchel. Opposing him is Felix Hernandez, I think King Felix rebounds this year in a Verlander-esque resurgence (but not to that degree). This is a dangerous dangerous Astros lineup but Felix knows them well and as a vet I think he comes out on opening day and pitches a quality game for the M's. Again there is a lot of value as a dog here and this is a Mariners team I am quite high on.
BONUS PARLAY:
1st leg- Mets ML -183
2nd leg- Royals ML -105
3rd leg- Dodgers Over 6
This parlay IMO is the safest while providing you the most value, I have toyed around with Rockies -115 in place of the Royals -105 and think that would be a suitable play as well.
Comment if youd like more info or my analysis on a game, im crunched on time so I just put out a few games that stick out to me. Tail me at your own risk but regardless BOL!
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