Everything that could have possibly went wrong with this team last year did. Charlie Manuel not being in the dugout should be good for an additional 4-5 wins. The team went 20-22 after Sandberg took over in the middle of August which includes 2-9 in their last 11 games of the season when they were trotting out Zack Minor and Tylor Cloyd as starting pitchers. Everyone in Philadelphia has totally given up on this team, which is usually a great sign that the team will over perform.
-Top 10 Rotation** (In my opinion)
-Healthy/Improved Bullpen
-Healthy Howard
-New Manager
The defense in the Outfield is a concern to me, but we aren't talking about 90 wins, we are talking 79 wins. I can't see this team not being a .500 team.
I am usually spot on when it comes to this team, however, I think I had a write up on here in 2011 that said I did not think they would go over their win total, so I am wrong at times.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Everything that could have possibly went wrong with this team last year did. Charlie Manuel not being in the dugout should be good for an additional 4-5 wins. The team went 20-22 after Sandberg took over in the middle of August which includes 2-9 in their last 11 games of the season when they were trotting out Zack Minor and Tylor Cloyd as starting pitchers. Everyone in Philadelphia has totally given up on this team, which is usually a great sign that the team will over perform.
-Top 10 Rotation** (In my opinion)
-Healthy/Improved Bullpen
-Healthy Howard
-New Manager
The defense in the Outfield is a concern to me, but we aren't talking about 90 wins, we are talking 79 wins. I can't see this team not being a .500 team.
I am usually spot on when it comes to this team, however, I think I had a write up on here in 2011 that said I did not think they would go over their win total, so I am wrong at times.
i think itll depend on how burnett pitches this year.....if he is anything close to what he was with the pirates last year the phillies should go over 79 for sure
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i think itll depend on how burnett pitches this year.....if he is anything close to what he was with the pirates last year the phillies should go over 79 for sure
It's still early and I have not gotten to the Phillies in my annual Pre Season work that I do on each team but here is the off the cuff 2014 assesement
C) Ruiz is entering the sunset for catchers and looked like it last year.
1b) Declining injury prone first baseman who is likely to see some bounce back if he can stay on the field but that is not a given
2B) Utley turned back the clock pretty nicely last season, does he maintain at 35?
SS) Rollins is falling quickly both at the plate and on the field. Might be playing his way into the broadcast booth.
3B) Ashe has potential to be a very nice everyday player.
LF) Brown has come into is own nicely
CF) Paul Revere's kin. If he picks up the OBP a bit more he could be a real nice table setter
RF) Marlon Byrd had the best year of his career last season, does he have a repeat performance? Daren Ruf needs to be seeing 500 at bats throu multiple positions in his age 27 season, often a year hitters take off
Rotation Hamels starts out banged up, need to see how this plays out. Lee is Lee and just keeps chugging along...Burnett may just find out pitching in Philly is not the same as pitching in Pittsburgh...Kendrick moved backwards last year...Bullpen has nice pieces...
It seems to me that the Phillies need a whole lot of things to go right to be a .500 team. 78 is a nicely set number as I think some folks will want to jump the over but if anything under seems to be the play. My initial impression is to just stay away, but an over play is really hoping for the best case scenario in my opinion, barring surprises. Like I said I am still working my way through all of the teams and perhaps my opinion will change a little when I work through some more stats but this is my opinion right now. Best of luck.
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It's still early and I have not gotten to the Phillies in my annual Pre Season work that I do on each team but here is the off the cuff 2014 assesement
C) Ruiz is entering the sunset for catchers and looked like it last year.
1b) Declining injury prone first baseman who is likely to see some bounce back if he can stay on the field but that is not a given
2B) Utley turned back the clock pretty nicely last season, does he maintain at 35?
SS) Rollins is falling quickly both at the plate and on the field. Might be playing his way into the broadcast booth.
3B) Ashe has potential to be a very nice everyday player.
LF) Brown has come into is own nicely
CF) Paul Revere's kin. If he picks up the OBP a bit more he could be a real nice table setter
RF) Marlon Byrd had the best year of his career last season, does he have a repeat performance? Daren Ruf needs to be seeing 500 at bats throu multiple positions in his age 27 season, often a year hitters take off
Rotation Hamels starts out banged up, need to see how this plays out. Lee is Lee and just keeps chugging along...Burnett may just find out pitching in Philly is not the same as pitching in Pittsburgh...Kendrick moved backwards last year...Bullpen has nice pieces...
It seems to me that the Phillies need a whole lot of things to go right to be a .500 team. 78 is a nicely set number as I think some folks will want to jump the over but if anything under seems to be the play. My initial impression is to just stay away, but an over play is really hoping for the best case scenario in my opinion, barring surprises. Like I said I am still working my way through all of the teams and perhaps my opinion will change a little when I work through some more stats but this is my opinion right now. Best of luck.
Until they recently sign AJ, the Phillies cry was "Hamels and Lee and pray for the other three." Now, who knows? Hamels should be fine, Lee is still a factor, Burnett will be pitching in a hitters park, Kendrick as a starter? and whoever is left. Also agree that they are old in some areas, youthful in others. Mixed bag for me. I think 78 is also a good number. Their division will not be easy as all of the other teams will be tough with the Mets and Fish being better. Looking forward to see if Ryne has a fire/temper in him over a full year.
GL
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Until they recently sign AJ, the Phillies cry was "Hamels and Lee and pray for the other three." Now, who knows? Hamels should be fine, Lee is still a factor, Burnett will be pitching in a hitters park, Kendrick as a starter? and whoever is left. Also agree that they are old in some areas, youthful in others. Mixed bag for me. I think 78 is also a good number. Their division will not be easy as all of the other teams will be tough with the Mets and Fish being better. Looking forward to see if Ryne has a fire/temper in him over a full year.
Great insight tiger. However, I'm not a big believer in breaking down a lineup and going position by position to figure out if a team will go over because it never works out how you think it will.
I've been a phillies fan my entire life and I've been following them closely since 2000, they are way undervalued this year. Public perception is everything. I'm sure you will find far less people from Philly that agree with me on my prediction and from the 1st few comments it looks like the majority on covers will disagree with me as well.
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Great insight tiger. However, I'm not a big believer in breaking down a lineup and going position by position to figure out if a team will go over because it never works out how you think it will.
I've been a phillies fan my entire life and I've been following them closely since 2000, they are way undervalued this year. Public perception is everything. I'm sure you will find far less people from Philly that agree with me on my prediction and from the 1st few comments it looks like the majority on covers will disagree with me as well.
Wednesday's six-pack
Six of the Philadelphia Phillies' best minor league prospects.......
1) Maikel Franco, 3B-- Hit .339 in 69 games in Eastern League.
2) Jesse Biddle, P-- Allowed 104 hits, 82 walks in 138 IP at AA.
4) Miguel Gonzalez, P-- Former ace of Cuba's national team.
7) Cesar Hernandez, 2B/OF-- Hit .289 in 34 big league games LY.
13) Luis Encarnacion, 3B-- Turns 17 in August. Seriously.
16) Cameron Rupp, C-- Texas alum could be catcher of future.
~~~~~ZOSO~~~~~
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From the Amirillo today...
Wednesday's six-pack
Six of the Philadelphia Phillies' best minor league prospects.......
1) Maikel Franco, 3B-- Hit .339 in 69 games in Eastern League.
2) Jesse Biddle, P-- Allowed 104 hits, 82 walks in 138 IP at AA.
4) Miguel Gonzalez, P-- Former ace of Cuba's national team.
7) Cesar Hernandez, 2B/OF-- Hit .289 in 34 big league games LY.
13) Luis Encarnacion, 3B-- Turns 17 in August. Seriously.
16) Cameron Rupp, C-- Texas alum could be catcher of future.
Great insight tiger. However, I'm not a big believer in breaking down a lineup and going position by position to figure out if a team will go over because it never works out how you think it will.
I've been a phillies fan my entire life and I've been following them closely since 2000, they are way undervalued this year. Public perception is everything. I'm sure you will find far less people from Philly that agree with me on my prediction and from the 1st few comments it looks like the majority on covers will disagree with me as well.
Agree 100 percent breaking down a line up rarely works out exactly as you have planned. I look for holes and question marks and the Phillies have plenty of questions in my opinion. So many guys on this team could realisitcaly go up or down, with so many being variable I think it is safe to say some will be ok and others wont. Is that enough for them toIgets over the hump? I don't think it is the worst play in the world but it sure is hoping for a lot of good going over with the Phillies. For me it is just a stay away situation but gun to my head I would play under. I really don't like Hamels having shoulder issues and already being assured of missing Opening Day. Many a minor spring shoulder has wrecked a whole season. It doesn't sound like that is the case but nobody here know for sure and that is enough uncertainty for me to not like an over when looking at the rest of the roster. But heck what do I know, I had the Red Sox as a 4th place team last year (but I did really like the Cardinals).
I am not quite done going through every team yet, but just looking at the rest of the division, I think the Nats got a little better, The Braves a little worse, the Marlins a little better and the Mets I will say about the same or maybe slightly better but I have no feel for that and really need to dig into them before I feel comfortable standing behind that opinion. I do think this just a better team to stay away from on the Totals. Best of luck.
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Quote Originally Posted by tlosers:
Great insight tiger. However, I'm not a big believer in breaking down a lineup and going position by position to figure out if a team will go over because it never works out how you think it will.
I've been a phillies fan my entire life and I've been following them closely since 2000, they are way undervalued this year. Public perception is everything. I'm sure you will find far less people from Philly that agree with me on my prediction and from the 1st few comments it looks like the majority on covers will disagree with me as well.
Agree 100 percent breaking down a line up rarely works out exactly as you have planned. I look for holes and question marks and the Phillies have plenty of questions in my opinion. So many guys on this team could realisitcaly go up or down, with so many being variable I think it is safe to say some will be ok and others wont. Is that enough for them toIgets over the hump? I don't think it is the worst play in the world but it sure is hoping for a lot of good going over with the Phillies. For me it is just a stay away situation but gun to my head I would play under. I really don't like Hamels having shoulder issues and already being assured of missing Opening Day. Many a minor spring shoulder has wrecked a whole season. It doesn't sound like that is the case but nobody here know for sure and that is enough uncertainty for me to not like an over when looking at the rest of the roster. But heck what do I know, I had the Red Sox as a 4th place team last year (but I did really like the Cardinals).
I am not quite done going through every team yet, but just looking at the rest of the division, I think the Nats got a little better, The Braves a little worse, the Marlins a little better and the Mets I will say about the same or maybe slightly better but I have no feel for that and really need to dig into them before I feel comfortable standing behind that opinion. I do think this just a better team to stay away from on the Totals. Best of luck.
X Philly guy and don't see much out of this team this year and pitching staff is highly suspect with Halladay gone
I think there in for a long season as it all starts with pitching Staff and i just don't see it and in fact i doubt they match last years results
pitching staff is not suspect, when healthy they have 3 guys in lee,hamels,burnett who could be the number 1 starter on most teams in the league...big question mark is once again what will the offense do, cant win games wit a fickle lineup
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Quote Originally Posted by stevo1:
X Philly guy and don't see much out of this team this year and pitching staff is highly suspect with Halladay gone
I think there in for a long season as it all starts with pitching Staff and i just don't see it and in fact i doubt they match last years results
pitching staff is not suspect, when healthy they have 3 guys in lee,hamels,burnett who could be the number 1 starter on most teams in the league...big question mark is once again what will the offense do, cant win games wit a fickle lineup
I think there's only one question here, and that's Cole Hamels health. Word in Philly is his injury could be worse than expected and Burnett was insurance. If he's healthy, this team definitely goes over the .500 mark easy.
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I think there's only one question here, and that's Cole Hamels health. Word in Philly is his injury could be worse than expected and Burnett was insurance. If he's healthy, this team definitely goes over the .500 mark easy.
I think there's only one question here, and that's Cole Hamels health. Word in Philly is his injury could be worse than expected and Burnett was insurance. If he's healthy, this team definitely goes over the .500 mark easy.
My Response
They may go over 500 but not enough to get to 79 game wins
IMO also with Burnett i do not see much if last year has anything to do with it with his records from 2013
Burnett 26 starts 51 RA first 5 inn (8W/ 12L ,6P) And Phil Run support is non existent as was Pirates
________________________________________________
After Lee and Hamel's you have nothing and their 2013 records speak for themselves
Hamels 32 starts 67 Runs allowed in first 5 inn (13W /13L/ 6P) First 5
________________________________________________
Lee 30 Starts 46 RA in first 5 inn (15W /8L /7P )
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
and i'm a Philly Guy from the 50"s days of the WIZ kids
Robin Roberts, Curt Konstany, del Ennis Etc and they beat the Dodgers to go to the World series and NYY beat them in 4 games.So don't be telling me i'm a hater as i live this team but i also must be honest to myself
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Maxim said
I think there's only one question here, and that's Cole Hamels health. Word in Philly is his injury could be worse than expected and Burnett was insurance. If he's healthy, this team definitely goes over the .500 mark easy.
My Response
They may go over 500 but not enough to get to 79 game wins
IMO also with Burnett i do not see much if last year has anything to do with it with his records from 2013
Burnett 26 starts 51 RA first 5 inn (8W/ 12L ,6P) And Phil Run support is non existent as was Pirates
________________________________________________
After Lee and Hamel's you have nothing and their 2013 records speak for themselves
Hamels 32 starts 67 Runs allowed in first 5 inn (13W /13L/ 6P) First 5
________________________________________________
Lee 30 Starts 46 RA in first 5 inn (15W /8L /7P )
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
and i'm a Philly Guy from the 50"s days of the WIZ kids
Robin Roberts, Curt Konstany, del Ennis Etc and they beat the Dodgers to go to the World series and NYY beat them in 4 games.So don't be telling me i'm a hater as i live this team but i also must be honest to myself
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When healthy goes for all teams
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