There were many other times to grab the phillies with value as I did at +175, but there is still major value here when the outcome of this series is clear.
Books are slow to react here. They can't see what's happening or even correctly factor the future pitching matchups. Public/sharp money will push this to -160 tomorrow.
Books are unable to calculate the intangible factor of a team when it's just their year.
Down 2-0 in the 9th of the WC game vs STL - win with a 5 run inning
Knockoff the #2 seed and rival Braves with ease
Beat an equally hot SD team easily. This included a 4-0 comeback and a 3-2 comeback in the 8th inning with a quasi walk off Harper HR - legendary moment that carries to the WS
WS game 1 down 5-0 to a team that can't lose. The phillies magic is over, clearly. How about a 5 run comeback on the road to win in extras. 7-0 home win in gm3 to crush the spirts of HOU. Another Harper HR. Harper whispering in Bohm's ear followed immediately by a HR to put the game away? lol
All stuff of destiny
Game 3 on Monday they get a rainout from God that sets up their rotation perfectly for the rest of the series. Then go on to win with the optimal pitcher
Now game 4 - Ace 1A Nola vs some kid nobody from the DR. Nola off back to back terrible starts will come out lights out. Those bad starts are the best thing to happen to him for this game - there won't be a 3rd shitter. This Javier Kid for HOU is a nobody with 10 days between starts. He pitched a fluke game vs a trash NYY lineup last series in a pressure free spot. Now all the pressure is on him and he will crack in that environment. This game is 100% priced incorrectly and Nola should be -135 minimum.
Game 5 - Syndergarrd/bullpen vs Verlander. The bullpen game is 2-0 for phillies. Verlander should have pitched game 4 if he wasn't an old washed bum with nothing left. One of the biggest playoff chokers EVER, especially in WS. He is overpriced every game in the playoffs and vegas is still pricing him like this is a game in May. Huge choke probability in that environment for a close out loss.
STRONG chance this is over in 5. If not
Game 6 - Ace 1B Wheeler vs Valdez. Wheeler also off back to back terrible starts. There will not be a 3rd. He comes out with max urgency/focus. Valdez is frankly an overachieving fat ass who will be due for a bad game in a pressure spot with the Astros probably down 2-3. Watch the ghosts of the Nats and Braves creep into the brains of the stros when they choked at home to lose the WS on their homefield.
Game 7 - Ace 1A Nola vs Mcullers. Mcullers looked mind broken tonight. Suarez out the pen for Phillies, Javier out the pen for Hou, and all the other long relivers. Pitching edge is for philly. Dusty's skeletons come out the closet + the ghosts mentioned above. It won't go 7, but massive choke potential at home once again for the stros.
Stros aren't hitting consistently. This is a fraud team who should have lost to SEA but is only here because of shit decisions and Alvarez, who has now disappeared and 1 for 11 in the WS. Altuve a free out all playoffs. Meanwhile, Phillies stars Harper and Schwarber keep delivering. This isn't a place where you flip a switch and get out of a slump.
Phillies Aces had 4 HORRIBLe games this postseason and they still won 2 of them lol. Now imagine if their aces even give an average performance. Their aces will pitch 3 of the last 4 possible games vs overachieving bums in pressure spots. That is actually identical to 2019 when Nats had Strausburg and Scherzer in game 6/7.
The numbers and intangible factors are clear: Phillies win this series beyond all doubt
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