Mackenzie Gore gets the start for the Padres and although he has been very sharp, there is one thing that concerns me most about his game. When Gore gets hit, like many young pitchers coming up in the game today, he usually gets hit very hard. Gore is in the bottom 24th percentile in average exit velocity and 20th percentile in hard-hit %. The Pirates are not the strongest lineup in the MLB, but they do hit lefties better than righties and have done so in the past two weeks as well. Despite having good strikeout stuff, Gore is in the bottom 12th percentile in chase rate and 22nd percentile in curve spin, and I think the Pirates can find 2 or more runs on him in this one. 3-4 runs by the Pirates in total may be enough for us to cover here, as the total for this game is set super low at 7 and I think the Pirates have a beneficial matchup on their side of the mound. Roansy Contreras has been very sharp in his first 12.2 innings this season. Contreras is striking out batters and limiting BBs and HRs, which is what you like to see from any pitcher, starter, or reliever. We saw Contreras start his first game this season last time out and he was special, going 5.0 innings with no runs allowed and five strikeouts. Contreras faces a Padres lineup that has struggled all season long against RHP, but especially in the last few weeks or so. In fact, since May 13th, no team has a worse team OPS or isolated power number than the Padres do against RHP. I think the Pirates keep this game close throughout and at least cover the run line here on the road.
Mackenzie Gore gets the start for the Padres and although he has been very sharp, there is one thing that concerns me most about his game. When Gore gets hit, like many young pitchers coming up in the game today, he usually gets hit very hard. Gore is in the bottom 24th percentile in average exit velocity and 20th percentile in hard-hit %. The Pirates are not the strongest lineup in the MLB, but they do hit lefties better than righties and have done so in the past two weeks as well. Despite having good strikeout stuff, Gore is in the bottom 12th percentile in chase rate and 22nd percentile in curve spin, and I think the Pirates can find 2 or more runs on him in this one. 3-4 runs by the Pirates in total may be enough for us to cover here, as the total for this game is set super low at 7 and I think the Pirates have a beneficial matchup on their side of the mound. Roansy Contreras has been very sharp in his first 12.2 innings this season. Contreras is striking out batters and limiting BBs and HRs, which is what you like to see from any pitcher, starter, or reliever. We saw Contreras start his first game this season last time out and he was special, going 5.0 innings with no runs allowed and five strikeouts. Contreras faces a Padres lineup that has struggled all season long against RHP, but especially in the last few weeks or so. In fact, since May 13th, no team has a worse team OPS or isolated power number than the Padres do against RHP. I think the Pirates keep this game close throughout and at least cover the run line here on the road.
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