Poll: Do you calculate implied line probabilities

Question

I am curious to know. How many people who post - regularly on this site - actually take the time to calculate the win probability implied by the line?

For example:

+100 ---> 50%
-125 ---> 55.56%
-150 ---> 60%
-200 ---> 66.67%

This is a fundamental ingredient in evaluate lines... and likewise, line movements. I 20 point move from -200 is far different than a 20 point move from -130 in terms of probability implied by the line.

At the end of the day, your profitability is determined by your ability to uncover lines in which the probability is mispriced (i.e., the implied probability is lower than the "actual" probability).

Question: who looks at lines as implied probabilities?

BirdsOnBat · Answer

I am curious to know. How many people who post - regularly on this site - actually take the time to calculate the win probability implied by the line?

For example:

+100 ---> 50%
-125 ---> 55.56%
-150 ---> 60%
-200 ---> 66.67%

This is a fundamental ingredient in evaluate lines... and likewise, line movements. I 20 point move from -200 is far different than a 20 point move from -130 in terms of probability implied by the line.

At the end of the day, your profitability is determined by your ability to uncover lines in which the probability is mispriced (i.e., the implied probability is lower than the "actual" probability).

Question: who looks at lines as implied probabilities?

darkmandave · Answer

I do they very important when they drop or go up a significant amount especially 20 cents or so.

kimoinsd808 · Answer

I do.

mbiddy · Answer

do not

MrECapps · Answer

If you don&#x27;t, you can certainly become a better handicapper by learning how to do it on the fly.For &#x2B; odds, say &#x2B;150, the equation is 100/(100&#x2B;150) = 0.4For - odds, say -150, the equation is 150/(100&#x2B;150) = 0.6Very useful also to see the house edge so you know how bad your book is screwing you over.  2:20 PM ET &#x9; PHI (&#x2B;224) at CHC (-246)PHI  Implied: 30.86 CHC Implied: 71.10Adding the two gives 101.96 so the house edge priced by covers is 1.96%.  Same game at Bovada is &#x2B;230/-270PHI Implied: 30.3CHI Implied: 73.0Adding gives 103.3, so Bovada is booking a 3.3% edge on the game.