"The Good 😊, the Bad 👿, the Ugly 🤮" (7/22)

"The Good:" Myers (MIL) + Assad (CHC)  Pick:  MIL/CHC Under 8.5

The Under 8.5 is 6-0 in the Cubs' most recent home games, and 8-2 in the last 10 games of this series @CHC.  Myers has a 2.32 ERA (42.2 IP) at NIGHT, 2.56 ERA (38.2 IP) AWAY (7 starts), .193 OBA vs. Righties.  Assad has a 2.38 ERA (41.2 IP) at HOME and a 0.00 ERA (7.2 IP) in his last two appearances vs. MIL. 

"The Bad:"  Rodon (NYY), Littell (TB) AWAY   Pick:  TB/NYY Over 8.5

Rodon has a 9.69 ERA (26.0 IP) vs. AL East teams.  Littell has a 7.36 ERA (22.0 IP) AWAY since June 1.  The Over 8.5 is 5-2 in Littell's last 7 starts, 6-3 in Rodon's last 9 starts, and 10-5 @NYY in the last 15 of the series.

"The Ugly:"  CLE offense  Pick:  DET/CLE Over 7.5

Yes, CLE has gone 6-0 to the Under 7.5 in their last 6 games, but the last game that they went Over 7.5 was vs. DET.  CLE is averagung 1.71 runs in the last 7 games, and I can't imagine that slump lasting much longer.  The Over 7.5 is 5-1 in the last 6 of the series, 3-0 in Carrasco's last 3 HOME starts, 11-4 in CLE's last 15 vs. AL Central teams, and 14-4 in DET's last 18 games.  Skubal has a 5.73 ERA (11.0 IP) in his last two starts vs. AL Central teams.  Carrasco has a 5.14 ERA (21.0 IP) in his last 4 HOME starts.

 Fade Alert 

"The Good, the Bad, the Ugly" is 6-3 since the all-star break.  Tread lightly.

@Ricodamus

 , why do you say tread lightly if your 6-3? Normally I would say tread lightly if I was in a cold patch.(example 0-4 last 4 plays), or maybe you don't like the card today.

The best cappers have a 55% win rate.  I'm at 66.6% at the moment.  At some point, I am going to go 0-3 to regress to the mean.

is the "under" first 5 innings? bc once bullpen comes in, game could change drastically.. any thoughts

Love these write ups!

That is always a risk.  But if both SP's put out a quality start, it minimizes that risk.  Myers has gone 6.0+ IP in 6 of his last 7 starts.  Assad went 6.0 IP in his last start in this series.  

I guess with Rodon throwing a no-hitter, Yanks will need to score 9 runs on their own today.

 TB/NYY Over 8.5

nice hit, i was on the wrong side of that moose...

I was on the Under 9.5 last night, Yankees messed it up in the 9th.  So I know how that feels. 

Never suggest regression on yourself, your momma didn't raise you to be a patsy 

@diondimucci

 Gotta reverse jinx myself. 

Believe in yourself...rule 1 as a sports bettor 

Good call

@Ricodamus

Big props as you’re going well. But Regression to the mean is not what you said. It describes how an event which Is nominally a 50-50 shot will tend closer to that ratio as you progress

Starting out hot doesn’t mean you’ll go cold just because you were hot. What is likely is that you’ll go closer to 50-50 as you advance

So if you start 10-0 there isn’t necessarily 0-6 on the way. More likely you’ll go 40-40 in your next 80 bets leaving you at 50-40 overall. Much closer to the mean than 10-0!

You probably know this but a lot of people misunderstand it

Looking forward to your next plays

Ah, that makes sense.  Yeah, I always get paranoid when I get hot because I just know the other shoe is about to drop at some point soon.  Thanks for that clarification, it makes more sense to me. 

Tigers could get there by themseleves...

4-0 Top 2nd.

 DET/CLE understood the assignment. 

 MIL/CHC understood the assignment.

3-0 day! 

 Love the overs ! 

   sad i checked em and didn't pull the trigger ... you have been doing well ....   

Every which way but lose