Posted:
#1
Hey guys, i'm back with a post. This would have been my article, but the SBR guys aren't posting it yet? I don't think editors like to sift through all of my detail, but I think that's what makes me unique and you can't meaningfully contribute to anything in life if you aren't unique. So this is what I like today. Good luck if you decide to tail. Nothing is a guarantee, but I think that this is statistically most likely to hit.
The Cardinals took their revenge on Arizona’s late-inning comeback victory in the Series Opener. They barely hung on for a 4-3 victory last night in order to end Arizona’s four-game win streak. Look for Arizona to win the series: behind superior pitching and hitting, this one shouldn’t be close.
The Diamondbacks have dealt with the best of Cardinals’ pitching. On Tuesday, they had their way with the Cardinals’ statistically below-average bullpen after Cardinals’ ace Carlos Martinez exited the game. Last night, they dealt with the Cardinals’ second-best pitcher, Adam Wainwright, and nearly came back against the same shaky bullpen. Today, their hitters get to go up against both a shaky starter and a shaky bullpen. Look especially for lefties to do well against Cardinals’ starter Lance Lynn. This year, lefties are batting .241 against Lynn, while righties are batting only .180. Watch out especially for right-fielder David Peralta, who is 5-for-7 with a home run in his career against Lynn, and for third baseman Jake Lamb, who is batting .335 this season against right-handed pitchers.
Probable Pitchers
Lance Lynn (5-5 3.86 ERA) pitches for St. Louis. His 3.86 ERA masks considerable issues with his pitching, which are summarized by his 5.54 FIP (this is like ERA, but factors out luck). He hasn’t completed the sixth inning since May 23rd. He is throwing a lot of pitches because he is unable to command his stuff: his 3.75 BB/9 rate is a career high. Velocity has been an issue as well, particularly with his fastball, which he throws 43.7% of the time, and his sinker, which he throws 34.7% of the time. His fastball velocity this season averages 92.6 mph, which is .9 mph lower than his career average. His sinker is averaging 91.7 mph, .5 less than his career average. But his velocity was at its worst in his last start, in which he threw his fastball at an average of just 90.95 mph, and his sinker at an average of 90.40 mph. Partly in order to compensate for his velocity struggles, he has relied more on his off-speed pitches, particularly the sinker. For example, in his last start vs Pittsburgh he threw his sinker at an almost 50% rate. Lynn’s adjustments have not worked: in his past two outings, he has given up 14 earned runs, including four home runs. He struck out just eight batters in those two outings, although he averages 8.69 K/9 in his career. He walked five in the 10.1 innings he pitched. His FIP and ERA were both above 8 in each outing. So Lynn is struggling with his stuff because his pitches are easier to see and easier to hit. The vastly diverging vertical and horizontal release points of his pitches shows that he is unable to mask his pitches, meaning that opposing batters are easily able to discern whether a fastball or sinker is approaching them. Also, the decrease in his velocity is giving opposing batters more time to react to his pitches. His high walk and home run rates indicate that he is unable to compensate for his velocity struggles by effectively locating his pitches. Rest hasn't seemed to help Lynn, as he pitched against Pittsburgh with five days’ rest. For one of baseball’s elite offenses today he’ll only get four days’ rest.
0
Hot Forum Topics
