One would first have to quantify an intrinsic season's total worth to decipher an equivlant O/U pricing at 70.5 commensurate to the Greek's pricing. To simplify matters, assuming the Greek's price you posted is "true intrinsic pricing", an equivlant O/U line at 70.5 would be about -295/+210. However, keep in mind, that quanitifying equivlancy is dependent on intrinsic worth, and therefore subject to change based on handicappers expectations.
Again, deciphering whether the DRay's bet at 70.5 -185 has greater utility than a middle at the Greeks current Under offering price is dependent on your intrinsic value of the Rays season total win expectancy and your risk preference as an individual handicapper.
Again, to simplify matters, lets assume Greeks current market price is equivlant to true intrinsic worth. This would present a profitable middle expectancy, as your slow to move book allows for the Over expected profit @-180 to be greater than the Under expected loss at -105 by about 1.8%. The "value at risk" return is is greater than the Over stand alone expected return. Having said that, one often overlooked variable in dealing with futures is the cost of capital for EV cappers. When the cost of capital is quantified into expected returns of futuers with EV cappers, futures are not terribly compelling, thus middling futures is even less compelling (unless you are on credit).
Also, one major caveat is the underlying mathematics behind quantifying expected returns of futures. The Mathematics actually makes the expected returns of the middle higher for handicappers that quantify the expected win rate of the DRays to be below 73.5 and above 70.5. Anything out of this range, and the expected value of the middle diminishes substantially. Based on your bullish comments on the Rays, I would assume you think they will win over 74 games. If this is in fact true, your expected returns on this middle becomes negative EV.
In other words, stick with your Over 70.5 bet.
Best of luck.
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