Red Sox v. Yankees
Eovaldi v. Happ
Analysis
Eovaldi was last used last in a “long relief” role after Sale opened to pitch just one inning on 9/11. He should start as normal today, but recently, he’s been throwing a ton of pitches and not getting through innings effectively. Since 8/10, he’s averaged 20 pitches/inning, so I’m expecting a 5IP day for him to follow suit. Last 5 starts he also carries a 1.94WHIP which is god awful. Now, the last truly effective start he had was in fact against the Yanks on 8/4 when he went 8 scoreless, but that was last month when he was dialed in. His home/away splits are bad, which favors the Yanks, but on 6+ days’ rest, he’s sharp as a tac. Take that for what it’s worth.
COUPLE THAT, with the Yanks hitting of late…eek. Through 14 games in September, they’ve hit .213. They are now a measly 1.5 games up on the Wild Card and the pressure is starting to heat up in the Bronx. Sox have already clinched, but this is a division rival game baby, and this is a pre-playoff type of game.
On the other side, Happ has been exactly what the Yanks expected, posting 2.7 ERA and 1.01 WHIP since being traded. He dominates LH hitters who hold a .161 avg against him and is also slightly better in day games than night. Last 6 games he’s thrown 16.8 pitch/inn averaging 96 pitches a game. Boston through 14 games in Sept have hit .248 with only 11hrs (league low)
Bullpens for both were off yesterday. Red Sox used more arms Sunday b/c Sale came in to pitch just 3IP, but I’m going to assume both bullpens will be available. Both squads boast top 6 bullpens, I’d say that helps the pitching side of our equation today.
In conclusion: I expect the Yanks to continue to struggle at the plate, gripping the bats tight and relying on Happ to deliver 7 strong innings. While Boston hasn’t hit many HR’s of recent, they still have a tough lineup, so it’ll be a tall order for him. In addition, the Sox do have quite a few LH bats that I’m expecting to be quieted by Happ’s dominance against them. With the delay from 1pm – 7pm being announced around 9:30am, the waiting around probably doesn’t help or hurt anyone out. Expecting a low scoring playoff type of game today, in a “must-win” scenario for the Yanks. Expecting a coin-flip 3-2, 4-2, 4-3 type of game.
Currently, my book has Under 9 (+105), and that’s good enough for me.
Good luck to the forum if you tail.