Posted:
#1
As I write this, Tampa is a slight favorite at -118 here. I like them at this price.
I've written in the past about Jake Odorizzi, calling him a "future ace." Of course, I'm talking a few years into the future, but his gains this year have been significant. As expected, his K rate has been in decline; this is something he has experienced at every level of pro ball. But at each level, the Ks have made a partial comeback as his control increases. His surface ERA of 4.18 is in part driven by bad luck, as he's had a 34% hit rate against. (Put another way, his expected ERA is closer to 3.75.) The long fly has been his problem all year, and his home-away splits show that he's particularly vulnerable on the road. Tonight he pitches at pitcher-friendly Tropicana.
KC's Shields might be better called "Regular Game James" as he's been anything but Big over the past month or so. But somewhere underneath lies the same talented pitcher we've seen over the past several years. Shield's main problem has been the homer--specifically, with runners on base, over a fifth of all flies hit against him are homers. That's an extraordinary rate, one that won't continue for long. His former home park should help, but suddenly-hot Tampa may delay the regression.
Should be a good game to watch.
I've written in the past about Jake Odorizzi, calling him a "future ace." Of course, I'm talking a few years into the future, but his gains this year have been significant. As expected, his K rate has been in decline; this is something he has experienced at every level of pro ball. But at each level, the Ks have made a partial comeback as his control increases. His surface ERA of 4.18 is in part driven by bad luck, as he's had a 34% hit rate against. (Put another way, his expected ERA is closer to 3.75.) The long fly has been his problem all year, and his home-away splits show that he's particularly vulnerable on the road. Tonight he pitches at pitcher-friendly Tropicana.
KC's Shields might be better called "Regular Game James" as he's been anything but Big over the past month or so. But somewhere underneath lies the same talented pitcher we've seen over the past several years. Shield's main problem has been the homer--specifically, with runners on base, over a fifth of all flies hit against him are homers. That's an extraordinary rate, one that won't continue for long. His former home park should help, but suddenly-hot Tampa may delay the regression.
Should be a good game to watch.
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