Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox
See Analytical Breakdown below:
Starting Pitching:
Twins: 8.50
White Sox: 8.30
Starting Lineups:
Twins: 77.03
White Sox: 68.64
Bullpens:
Twins: 7.62
White Sox: 5.55
Significant advantages for the Twins in the starting lineup and bullpen. Starting pitching is a wash, wouldn't be shocked to see a high scoring game here. Let's breakdown the match ups some more. Dobnak throws primarily a 3 pitch arsenal, 36.5% Sinker, 27.8% Curve-ball and 22.7% 4seam fastball. Luckily for him, the White Sox rank below average against those 3 pitches; They have a -29.2 value against the 4seam fb, ranking 27th in the MLB, a -4.3 value ranking 17th against the Sinker and a 0.4 value, ranking 15th against the curve-ball. Heavy advantage for Dobnak against their lineup. Keuchel throws with a heavy arsenal of sinker balls (49%), cutters (20%) and change up's (14.5%). The Twins rank 2nd against the Sinker and Cutter and 10th against the change up.
Lines-makers Thought Process?
They opened this line at -125 but with the pitching change, the line went down. Over 82% of the money is on the White Sox, yet the line is holding steady at -105/-110. This line with that money should be at -120 minimum.
Minnesota Twins ML -110 (3 Units)
Minnesota Twins RL -1.5 +145 (1 Unit)
Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays
This play is purely based on analytics and the lines-makers thought process. Matt Shoemaker throws primarily 4 pitches, the splitter, sinker, slider and 4 seam fastball. Mostly though, 32% the splitter (Rays batting value of -0.3, #13 in the league) and 30% the sinker (ground ball inducing pitch). The Rays hit the 2ND MOST GROUNDBALLS in all of 2019, they hit a ground ball nearly 45% of the time, ranking 29th. So, what we have here is Shoemaker's strongest two pitches are difficult pitches for the Ray's to hit. Even his secondary pitches (slider and 4seam FB), they rank 14th and 21st respectively.
The Rays pitcher, Ryan Yarbrough throws 3 pitches, the cutter 37% of the time, the changeup 25% of the time and the sinker 24% of the time. Here are the Blue Jay's success and rankings against those pitch types. They hit the cutter at a +4.2, ranking #8, and they rarely ever induce ground balls at 39% ranking 2nd best in the league. They struggle against the changeup ranking 27th in the league against them but I don't think Yarbrough will throw primarily changeups.
Lines-Makers View:
They opened this line at -155 and with over 73% of the money on the Rays, the line has gone against their favor and down to -135. Even with the heavy money on the Rays, this line is still tempting more money to go on them. Especially after a "fluke" loss yesterday, big money is expecting a bounce back.
Toronto Blue Jays ML +120 (2 units)
Colorado Rockies vs Texas Rangers
We have two good ball clubs, two great offenses battling each other today. Let's breakdown the match ups
Mike Minor:
Throws 3 pitches: 44% 4 seam FB, 25% Change-up, 20% Slider.
Rockies hit those pitches all above average. They rank #14 against the 4seam FB, #8 against the change up and #4 against the slider.
Jon Gray:
Throws 3 pitches: 51% 4 seam FB, 33% Slider, #11 Curve ball
Rangers hit those pitches all average/below-average. They rank #20 against the 4seam FB, #9 against the slider and #21 against the curve ball.
We have a clear advantage based on pitching/hitting match ups for the Rockies. Now lets look at the lines makers standpoint. The line opened at the Rangers -105 and is now up to -120. Why the line move? We have over 82% of the money on the Rangers, the lines makers had to move this line up to continue to garner Rangers interest.
Colorado Rockies ML +110 (2 Units)
Established in 1995,
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