Saturday Thoughts

Well, let´s keep it going. I give you input you do what you want with it. Ill start keeping track of the picks I post here. 

Yankees: The Yanks suck vs righties. Why? Because their lineup is filled with right batters, and Aaron Boone is the worst manager in MLB who would never vary its lineup according to the pitcher he is facing. Well, today they face a leftie again. The starting pitcher match up is a push, but the Yanks have a better bullpen, better lineup, and great odds. THAT = easy pick @1.980

Twins: Most of you guys have grown up under the "you never bet huge favorites in baseball" myth. You handicap a game. And if according to your model your team is a huge favorite, you balance your probabilities against the odds. If it favors you, you bet it. Simple as that. There are no blind rules here, everything is determined on a game by game basis. It does not matter that in the end most teams end with records between 40%-60% wins. There are games on which the probabilities will be 80-20 or even more. This is one of them. TWINS @1.406

Those are the picks Ill share. 

Some food for thought and hopefully some discussion on a forum which could see more of it instead of random picks and lines: 

1. Tell me about Vlady Jr. If you didnt watch the game the numbers dont do justice. Solid contact all 4 turns at bat. One hits the back wall and is caught by Piscotty on a great play, and the other one was caught on the warning track. His defense looked impressive as well. He threw perfect fastball strikes to 1st base when he had to. The MLB needs this, and the Blue Jays will improve drastically. I took em yesterday, not today though. 

2. Jose Ramirez. This was one of my favorite players last season. And he has disappeared. The biggest disappointment so far this season is not Mookie Betts, or Carpenter, or Nola, De Grom, etc. The biggest disappointment is this guy. We need him to wake up. 

3. Nolan vs lefties. There is no largers splits discrepancy in baseball as Arenado vs righties (slightly above average batter) and vs lefties (the absolute best in the league for quite some time now).

4. Tampa Bay yesterday would have been the best bet of the season. Today, it is not even worth taking a stab, and if all, I would be more inclined towards Boston. What a difference does a storm make in a gambler´s finances?!

Good luck all!

90 views and zero posts. On one of the only threads that dissects today´s game. Well, not much more I can do to help those who are where I was a year ago. I add another: 

Phillies @ 1.52: Same reasoning as with the Twins. Way better starter, way better lineup, way better matchup and way better relievers. Lets print some Benjamins. 

Very nice insight. Thanks for sharing!

No problem mate! Hope you were aboard!

Lookin good so far bro. Good luck 

Well, +1.906u to start counting. 

Final observation. The only worse manager than Aron Boone is Snitker. AJ Minter throwing all  over the place and he has no one warming up in the bullpen. What makes it worse is that he was facing 2 righties. Minter SUCKS against right batters, Snitker has Winker who makes a living out of that, doing nothing in the pen. The Braves have the talent to be among the very best of the league, yet, this  moron ties them up.