Posted:
#76
Another winning pick from the almighty mouth of know it all.
VANZACK BABY.
Seattle is favored at the home of the best record in baseball....
Thx u King Felix for the 10 units.
Posted:
#80
I'm not one to bash, it's always tough to lose money. BUT as much as the "idiots" on this site can be wrong with their opinions I have to agree with some that this whole idea of value betting in baseball is worthless. Value betting in my opinion is simply an excuse for going out on a limb to reassure yourself that your wager has a chance. Really what is value? Like all things in life; if a house is valued at 1 mil but can't sell it for peanuts it's really not worth as much as a home that is worth $200,000 and that has 20 offers at $150,000. I am a strong believer in handicapping a baseball game and taking the team that has a multitude of distinct advantages over their opponent. Over the years I've noticed the term value being thrown around and I can't help but say that better teams that have said advantages on a given night win far more often than a team with "value".
Posted:
#82
Quote Originally Posted by WhiteRussian:
I'm not one to bash, it's always tough to lose money. BUT as much as the "idiots" on this site can be wrong with their opinions I have to agree with some that this whole idea of value betting in baseball is worthless. Value betting in my opinion is simply an excuse for going out on a limb to reassure yourself that your wager has a chance. Really what is value? Like all things in life; if a house is valued at 1 mil but can't sell it for peanuts it's really not worth as much as a home that is worth $200,000 and that has 20 offers at $150,000. I am a strong believer in handicapping a baseball game and taking the team that has a multitude of distinct advantages over their opponent. Over the years I've noticed the term value being thrown around and I can't help but say that better teams that have said advantages on a given night win far more often than a team with "value".
I'm not one to bash, it's always tough to lose money. BUT as much as the "idiots" on this site can be wrong with their opinions I have to agree with some that this whole idea of value betting in baseball is worthless. Value betting in my opinion is simply an excuse for going out on a limb to reassure yourself that your wager has a chance. Really what is value? Like all things in life; if a house is valued at 1 mil but can't sell it for peanuts it's really not worth as much as a home that is worth $200,000 and that has 20 offers at $150,000. I am a strong believer in handicapping a baseball game and taking the team that has a multitude of distinct advantages over their opponent. Over the years I've noticed the term value being thrown around and I can't help but say that better teams that have said advantages on a given night win far more often than a team with "value".
So you bet favorites every night?
Lets say the Yankees are playing the Nationals in NY, and its Joba Chamberlain vs a rookie bum for the Nats. Yankees are a better team, they have all of the advantages on this given night - but the line is:
NYY -950 Was +900
Now - are you telling me that the line has nothing to do with your choice of who to bet? You are just going to pick the winner that night?
The line is the ONLY thing you should be handicapping, and the quicker you realize that the faster you will stop losing as a gambler.
Yes, the Dodgers lost last night. I had them as a -110 favorite, which means I thought they had a 53% chance to win - but also a 47% chance of losing!!
I BET TEAMS EVERY SINGLE DAY THAT I THINK ARE GOING TO LOSE. If you dont, you are a losing gambler.
Read that again, and think about it for a minute. And then go read this too while you are at it.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
Posted:
#83
Quote Originally Posted by primetimeblitz:
HOW MANY TIMES WILL THIS GUY HAVE A THREAD SUGGESTING A LINE IS 2O CENTS OFF AND KEEPS ON LOSING. YOU CANT READ LINES.
HOW MANY TIMES WILL THIS GUY HAVE A THREAD SUGGESTING A LINE IS 2O CENTS OFF AND KEEPS ON LOSING. YOU CANT READ LINES.
BTW - being 20 cents off in a baseball game gives you approximately a 6% edge.
That means, that I hope to win 6% more games than I lose.
So every game I bet is not a winner - unlike you guys who win every game you bet - I bet a lot of games over the course of the season - and hope to win about 6% (weighted) than I lose.
I know that kind of winning percentage isnt enough for you and your buddies here at covers that win almost every bet you place, but for me it allows me to do this for a living, make money 7 out of the last 8 MLB seasons, and be up this season so far much more than the average american family makes at their jobs in a year.
So keep doing what you are doing. I wll keep doing what I do. And thank god for all of the covers morons - they make lines better for me to bet in to.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
Posted:
#84
I can't argue the logic - LAD at home against any pitcher would be worth a look at plus money.
Felix is on fire, so that made me stay away, but Van's logic is the correct way to bet. That is how you come out ahead at season's end, and that is what counts to most of us.
People who can afford to gamble don't need money, and those who need money can't afford to
Posted:
#85
Quote Originally Posted by WhiteRussian:
I'm not one to bash, it's always tough to lose money. BUT as much as the "idiots" on this site can be wrong with their opinions I have to agree with some that this whole idea of value betting in baseball is worthless. Value betting in my opinion is simply an excuse for going out on a limb to reassure yourself that your wager has a chance. Really what is value? Like all things in life; if a house is valued at 1 mil but can't sell it for peanuts it's really not worth as much as a home that is worth $200,000 and that has 20 offers at $150,000. I am a strong believer in handicapping a baseball game and taking the team that has a multitude of distinct advantages over their opponent. Over the years I've noticed the term value being thrown around and I can't help but say that better teams that have said advantages on a given night win far more often than a team with "value".
I'm not one to bash, it's always tough to lose money. BUT as much as the "idiots" on this site can be wrong with their opinions I have to agree with some that this whole idea of value betting in baseball is worthless. Value betting in my opinion is simply an excuse for going out on a limb to reassure yourself that your wager has a chance. Really what is value? Like all things in life; if a house is valued at 1 mil but can't sell it for peanuts it's really not worth as much as a home that is worth $200,000 and that has 20 offers at $150,000. I am a strong believer in handicapping a baseball game and taking the team that has a multitude of distinct advantages over their opponent. Over the years I've noticed the term value being thrown around and I can't help but say that better teams that have said advantages on a given night win far more often than a team with "value".
Are you being serious? The value in the line is EVERYTHING in baseball. If you bet faves you will not gain anything overtime even by winning more than you lose. The value stacks up overtime for profit if you know how to read lines.
Posted:
#86
Quote Originally Posted by WhiteRussian:
I'm not one to bash, it's always tough to lose money. BUT as much as the "idiots" on this site can be wrong with their opinions I have to agree with some that this whole idea of value betting in baseball is worthless. Value betting in my opinion is simply an excuse for going out on a limb to reassure yourself that your wager has a chance. Really what is value? Like all things in life; if a house is valued at 1 mil but can't sell it for peanuts it's really not worth as much as a home that is worth $200,000 and that has 20 offers at $150,000. I am a strong believer in handicapping a baseball game and taking the team that has a multitude of distinct advantages over their opponent. Over the years I've noticed the term value being thrown around and I can't help but say that better teams that have said advantages on a given night win far more often than a team with "value".
I'm not one to bash, it's always tough to lose money. BUT as much as the "idiots" on this site can be wrong with their opinions I have to agree with some that this whole idea of value betting in baseball is worthless. Value betting in my opinion is simply an excuse for going out on a limb to reassure yourself that your wager has a chance. Really what is value? Like all things in life; if a house is valued at 1 mil but can't sell it for peanuts it's really not worth as much as a home that is worth $200,000 and that has 20 offers at $150,000. I am a strong believer in handicapping a baseball game and taking the team that has a multitude of distinct advantages over their opponent. Over the years I've noticed the term value being thrown around and I can't help but say that better teams that have said advantages on a given night win far more often than a team with "value".
I read this again, and genuinely feel bad for you.
To try and put this as simply as possible, the one thing you forget, and most at covers forget:
THE GOAL OF SPORTSBETTING IS TO MAKE MONEY, NOT WIN MORE BETS THAN YOU LOSE.
In all of your discussion above, you leave out the most important thing - odds and payout. You talk about teams winning more on a given night than others, and a single example of a house. The problem is that you are not betting a single baseball game in a season - you will bet many - and over the course of those many games - if you want to be profitable VALUE IS THE ONLY THING THAT MATTERS.
If you buy a hundred houses, and those houses you estimate are worth 200K each, and you buy those 100 houses for 190K each - when you go to sell them you will get less than 190K for a lot of them. But overall if your value estimate is correct you will make an AVERAGE of 10K per house.
It doesnt matter that you will lose on some individual houses, but overall you will make profit.
That is the only way to bet baseball and make money. Picking who you think will win each game is pointless. There is a price attached to each game that is the great equalizer. You are ignoring it, and therefore ignoring the only thing that matters - not picking more winners than losers - but having more money at the end than the start.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
Posted:
#87
I BET TEAMS EVERY SINGLE DAY THAT I THINK ARE GOING TO LOSE. If you dont, you are a losing gambler.
beautifully put vanzack, but the real value lies in the RL +160, or even at -2.5 not +110 or 120 w/a pitcher that stinks and coming off the DL. the pub was betting the dodgers that game at over 70% and whenever its that much to the dog the dog almost always seems to lose. i like taking my dogs when theres only about 35% on them ideally. GL man.
Hot Forum Topics
