SEP 30

1100-1009  +4351

G1 ATL 1st5 U4.5 -132

Just to look at some of my thinking on this matchup.  These are some of the things I will consider even before looking into the starting pitching and a few other things.

Moneyline:

ATL at home 47/33  .588 for -7.65 U

NYM away    43/37  .538 for +7.10 U

Runline:

ATL at home 34/46  .425 for -12.8 U

NYM away    43/37   .538 for -2.85 U

Total:

ATL at home 53/25  .679 for +25.45 U to the UNDER

NYM away    40/35  .533 for +1.05 U    to the OVER

Team Total:

ATL at home 51/26  .662 for +21.75 U to the UNDER

NYM away    40/38  .513 for -3.40 U  to the OVER

1st5 Runline:

ATL at home 37/39  .513 for -12.15 U

NYM away    44/34  .564 for +6.30 U

1st5 Total:

ATL at home  34/37  .479 for -1.60 U

NYM away     39/32  .549 for +2.90 U

Just looking at this it would seem there might be some opportunities on NYM Moneyline, Under for the game, ATL TT Under, NYM 1st5 Runline.  Maybe a small opportunity on NYM Runline for the game.

I would not consider NYM TT or the 1st5 Total.

I figured the line slightly lower than where it is at about -140 for ATL.

I had the total right about 7.5.

A couple of places I respect have the game ATL 3.5 - NYM 4.3 for a total of 7.8   and   ATL 4.1 NYM 3.5 for. Total of 7.6

Then I would look at the pitchers and see if there is any extreme looks with the umpiring crew.

Megill away 4.81 and day 5.01 ERA but last three .56 giving up 4,2,1 hits in 4,6,6 innings.  Lost to ATL 4-0 but was two months ago.

Schwellenbach home 3.62 and day 5.02 ERA but last three 1.89 giving up 1,1,2 runs on 3,5,4 hits in 7,6,6 innings.  Beat NYM 5-1 6 days ago.

I realize there has been a kind of rivalry between these two teams for a bit.  But I think the last few games ATL has looked better, including the win against NYM.  Both played playoff teams over the weekend and ATL looked slightly better.

I think the opening game will be played very tight — just like a true playoff game.

So, I could make a very good case that the odds are set just about right to play ATL -147 and NYM +1.5 -161.  I would like to see the odds a bit tighter to do this.  I also worry that one team could get out to a lead and open it up a tad later.

The ATL TT U4.5 -142 is a bit higher than I would like.

The 1st5 RL for NYM +.5 at -107 is very tempting and looks the most solid play to me.

But I like the game to start slow or at the worst for only one team to come out on fire.  I am hoping for that team to still not score enough in the 1st 5 to send it over.

G1 ATL 1st5 U4.5 -132 is the play for me in the first game.

Even though this seems counterintuitive to the numbers I showed that I initially look at.  I just see this game playing out a particular way and see the best value on this play.

Since both teams will get in the playoffs with a split, I can actually see a split.

I am not saying there is a ‘gentlemen’s agreement’ to let the losing team in the first game win the other.  But I could see one team relieved to be in and not go as hard in the second game.

I almost think it is free money to take the loser in the first game to win in the second game.

The ideal setup for me would be for ATL to win a close low-scoring game.

Then in the second game I could see playing NYM moneyline and ATL TT U.

If anyone actually cared to get this far into my long-winded ramble:

Good luck to whatever anyone decides on today’s games and good luck in the playoffs.

Lol I did!  Thanks much for your thoughts and posts, Raiders... BOL to you and to all during the playoffs!  

Hard to believe the Mets are starting Megill - a gas can !

Bol Raid 

Thanks!!

Good Luck today and in the playoffs!!

Good luck Raiders.  

Seems to me the Mets played a better level of competition to close the season than the Braves.

GL

@MB67

 1.80 era last 4 starts. 

Bol raiders

I'm prolly dead

FF Over 4

FG Over (7-)

Mets facing this arm they saw less than a week ago.

Day games=errors

BOL Raiders!!

@IntenseOperator

 Hope you win your FG play 

@Raiders22

@Raiders22

 Nice winner man