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September Dogs - Starting with $4k

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Posted: #551
Thanks guys. Bankroll keeps on climbing to:

Current Bankroll: $8,354.17
from $4000 (+108.85 units)

 
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Posted: #552
For today, let's take the Angels; for one simple value reason:
Jered Weaver is 93-37 (71.5%, +35.09 units) at home. - Simple trend up at +40.1 units now since inception of trend in our newsletter.

$116 to win $143.84
LAA Angels +124
vs St. Louis Cardinals
B.O.
 
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Posted: #553
Good luck herb!
 
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Posts: 5107
Posted: #554
INJURIES
Los Angeles Angels 
Cliff Pennington
Andrelton Simmons SS
Craig Gentry LF
Huston Street RP CLOSER!
Garrett Richards SP
Andrew Heaney SP
C.J. Wilson SP
This team is wounded physically AND emotionally!
 
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Posted: #555
Quote Originally Posted by gbpackman:

INJURIES
Los Angeles Angels 
Cliff Pennington
Andrelton Simmons SS
Craig Gentry LF
Huston Street RP CLOSER!
Garrett Richards SP
Andrew Heaney SP
C.J. Wilson SP
This team is wounded physically AND emotionally!

Good stuff. Info like that is always better before the game starts.
 
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Posted: #556
Quote Originally Posted by herbshack:


Good stuff. Info like that is always better before the game starts.

That's info that when someone puts out a play should know.

Thanks for your hard work and good luck.

 
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Posted: #557
Quote Originally Posted by herbshack:


Good stuff. Info like that is always better before the game starts.
I know but I didn't look at the post until after the game/circus started. Hope they bench Pujols so the Halos can start winning (They won without him in ST) I know all the teams had scrubs playing, but Pujols doesn't have his heart in the game and he said he WANTS TO GO BACK TO ST LOUIS!!! WHAT GALL!!! I say put him on the DL because he PLAYS like he IS injured! He is a HUGE detriment to the team and all he cares about is making MORE $$$ and when these docile Halo fans realize he is fake they will rebel and force this guy out along with his enabler (Arte "AAA" Moreno) to GET THE HELLL OUT OF DODGE!!!
 
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Posted: #558
LAA
Yunel Escobar
3B
Thumb Questionable
IS THE ENTIRE TEAM ON THE DL???
 
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Posted: #559
Quote Originally Posted by gbpackman:

LAA
Yunel Escobar
3B
Thumb Questionable
IS THE ENTIRE TEAM ON THE DL???

Yeah, what the hell. Angels keep letting me down.
 
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Posted: #560
$232 to win $324.8
Minnesota Twins +140 
vs Detroit Tigers
 
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Posted: #561
Quote Originally Posted by herbshack:

$232 to win $324.8
Minnesota Twins +140 
vs Detroit Tigers

Herb,

Interesting play here. Not sure I have it in me to follow but you have a proven track record. That is why I am wondering if there is a specific angle you are playing on this one that you are willing to share?

BOL
 
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Posted: #562
Quote Originally Posted by steelersbets:


Herb,

Interesting play here. Not sure I have it in me to follow but you have a proven track record. That is why I am wondering if there is a specific angle you are playing on this one that you are willing to share?

BOL

The way I come up with my selections, in a nutshell, is this: I have my raw number projections (a stats model). I don't bet against it, ever. I have trigger play Systems and a large set of small filter trends. I'll go against my trends sometimes (you'll always find something wrong with a bet); however, I try to avoid going against trends of mine where I've logged positive performance since inception. I have all of this automated and try to minimize the need for critical thinking during anytime but the off seasons which is when I am building my systems. Day to day though, you shoot yourself in the foot over-analyzing a bet. Next time you see a tipster writing a full blown essay about their bet, think twice. As Jim Kaatz said, "Think Long, Think Wrong."

For that specific bet, I had a system; just wanted to keep it in the house so it will keep on working for me for years to come. I make a living off this...I don't mind sharing my wagers so long as I've already booked em first haha. Only fair?

Here's what I have today:

$348 to win $570.72
Houston Astros +164
vs Chicago White Sox

This one is for the big cheddar cheese.

I'll share a key trend and note: this is about 5% or less of what I am deriving the play with. It is just a "thought" let's say;

KEY SYSTEM At the end of the week, before the weekend (Thursday or a Friday); home teams off of 4+ straight losses go 137-173 -63.93 units. A good fade against the White Sox. 

This system is for the League: however, the White Sox haven't been strangers as a subset within. 2-4 -2.9 units in this scenario.


 
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Posted: #563
Quote Originally Posted by herbshack:


The way I come up with my selections, in a nutshell, is this: I have my raw number projections (a stats model). I don't bet against it, ever. I have trigger play Systems and a large set of small filter trends. I'll go against my trends sometimes (you'll always find something wrong with a bet); however, I try to avoid going against trends of mine where I've logged positive performance since inception. I have all of this automated and try to minimize the need for critical thinking during anytime but the off seasons which is when I am building my systems. Day to day though, you shoot yourself in the foot over-analyzing a bet. Next time you see a tipster writing a full blown essay about their bet, think twice. As Jim Kaatz said, "Think Long, Think Wrong."

For that specific bet, I had a system; just wanted to keep it in the house so it will keep on working for me for years to come. I make a living off this...I don't mind sharing my wagers so long as I've already booked em first haha. Only fair?

Here's what I have today:

$348 to win $570.72
Houston Astros +164
vs Chicago White Sox

This one is for the big cheddar cheese.

I'll share a key trend and note: this is about 5% or less of what I am deriving the play with. It is just a "thought" let's say;

KEY SYSTEM At the end of the week, before the weekend (Thursday or a Friday); home teams off of 4+ straight losses go 137-173 -63.93 units. A good fade against the White Sox. 

This system is for the League: however, the White Sox haven't been strangers as a subset within. 2-4 -2.9 units in this scenario.



Cool man, I like what you do. Appreciate you taking the time to explain also. I'll bite on this too. 
 
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Posted: #564
gl
 
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Posted: #565
Quote Originally Posted by steelersbets:


Cool man, I like what you do. Appreciate you taking the time to explain also. I'll bite on this too. 

No problem. Asstros missed it by one run. Dang.

Here's what I've got for today:

$580 to win $591.60
Washington Nationals -1 +102 
vs Miami Marlins



 
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Posted: #566
Winner on the Nats

Current Bankroll: $8,249.77
from $4000 (+106.24 units)
 
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Posts: 108
Posted: #567
Will you be posting today? And thanks for the Nats pick 
 
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Posted: #568
Quote Originally Posted by Vtechh:

Will you be posting today? And thanks for the Nats pick 

Sorry, had some obligations. Cleveland and Baltimore were my two big ones. 1-1 break even.

Here's what I like for today:

$114 to win $134.52
Kansas City Royals +118 
vs Chicago White Sox

Under Ned Yost, the Royals have been profitable against tough plus .500 opponents at 214-225 +36.49 units. +47.38 units now since sent out via my free trends newsletter which some of you follow (since inception).



 
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Posted: #569
Hello herbshack, I've been appreciating your posts for a couple months now.  I friended you if you would kindly oblige.  I'm an avid football guy, but I'll bet it all, from Colorado and I like systems.  It looks like you've got some stuff figured out.  Thanks for the posts.
 
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Posted: #570
Quote Originally Posted by doscabras:

Hello herbshack, I've been appreciating your posts for a couple months now.  I friended you if you would kindly oblige.  I'm an avid football guy, but I'll bet it all, from Colorado and I like systems.  It looks like you've got some stuff figured out.  Thanks for the posts.

Not sure if you meant American Football or Soccer. Am.Football is probably the only sport I truly enjoy watching. For me, this is all math and numbers. 

I accepted your friendship haha. What does that do exactly? Notify you when I post or something?
 
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Posted: #571
$228 to win $241.68
STL Cardinals +106 
vs Chicago Cubs

 
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Posted: #572
B.O.L Herbshack 
 
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Posted: #573
Quote Originally Posted by G1992:

B.O.L Herbshack 

Thanks.

That casher puts it at:

Current Bankroll: $8,377.45
from $4000 (+109.43 units)
 
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Posted: #574
$116 to win $212.28
Phillies +183 
vs Tigers

 
 
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Posted: #575
boom. nice work sir
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