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September Dogs - Starting with $4k

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Posted: #801
I think he's taking the day off :-\
 
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Posted: #802
Quote Originally Posted by TheOtherTimTBo:

I think he's taking the day off :-\

No, there just wasn't a play.
 
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Posted: #803
$138 for $207 Kansas City Royals +150 vs Boston Red Sox

If this one wins, we clear $10k
 
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Posted: #804
Quote Originally Posted by herbshack:

$138 for $207 Kansas City Royals +150 vs Boston Red Sox

If this one wins, we clear $10k


Been checking every hour for the past two days finally!!! Thanks bud I hate betting against the Sox but this does seem like a very good pick.
 
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Posted: #805
Quote Originally Posted by TheOtherTimTBo:



Been checking every hour for the past two days finally!!! Thanks bud I hate betting against the Sox but this does seem like a very good pick.

Turned out to be good instinct. Why are you not liking bets against the Red Sox? I like to learn from losses....

Anyways, for today:

$138 to win $138 
Texas Rangers +100 
vs Cleveland Indians

THIS TREND: The Rangers are 15-5 SU +16.07 units since 2014 against plus .500 teams. I presented in my free newsletter when the record was 15-5....it is now 78-49 +46.16 units....a HUGE gainer. I say ride the Rangers train (and I could get down with the Royals train) just so long as the two aren't public dogs....which the Rangers may end up being today, but it is too early really to say with bets mostly split. 

I like the Angels today a lot as well; however, late season Sunday home favorites are a thing I'm not super crazy about betting against...

 
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Posted: #806
Quote Originally Posted by herbshack:


Turned out to be good instinct. Why are you not liking bets against the Red Sox? I like to learn from losses....

Anyways, for today:

$138 to win $138 
Texas Rangers +100 
vs Cleveland Indians

THIS TREND: The Rangers are 15-5 SU +16.07 units since 2014 against plus .500 teams. I presented in my free newsletter when the record was 15-5....it is now 78-49 +46.16 units....a HUGE gainer. I say ride the Rangers train (and I could get down with the Royals train) just so long as the two aren't public dogs....which the Rangers may end up being today, but it is too early really to say with bets mostly split. 

I like the Angels today a lot as well; however, late season Sunday home favorites are a thing I'm not super crazy about betting against...




Very nice hit man. I hate betting against the Sox because they can explode at any moment as well as the Cubs. Got anything on the Sox game tonight?
 
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Posted: #807
Been dealing with fleas the pets dragged in. Never underestimate how much fleas suck...

Anyways, average play qualifies here. Its been slim pickin's; I had the Rays yesterday. Didn't have a chance to publish it here and they lost so you all lucked out. That's a dumb luck win like any other:

$137 to win $176.73
Miami Marlins +1 +129 
vs New York Mets

No one is interested in the Marlins and the value is there and, in my opinion, large because of that. I see the Mets in a possible breather spot here and I see the Marlins on the edge of falling all the way down to .500 -- they need to end this 5 game losing streak. 

Think about it this way: I don't really know much about the Marlins, but I am going to assume they're professional athletes that might be inclined to give 110% here so as to not lose faith in themselves. When you're above .500, you're a "winner"; below .500 you're a "loser" -- a team fighting to not be "losers" is worth more than +180-ish odds. Just my thought process...derived by cold hard facts though as always. I have a 585-485 SU +87.95 units system that calls for betting a team 1 game above .500 off of a loss. Has been hot since I discovered the trend, and has been a winner in 10 out of 13 seasons...on a 4 season winning streak (counting 2016 current season).


 
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Posted: #808
Quote Originally Posted by herbshack:

Think about it this way: I don't really know much about the Marlins, but I am going to assume they're professional athletes that might be inclined to give 110% here so as to not lose faith in themselves. When you're above .500, you're a "winner"; below .500 you're a "loser" -- a team fighting to not be "losers" is worth more than +180-ish odds.

I'm going to follow that thought up with this one...maybe this is a long shot prediction, but I say, if the Marlins win here (win, not cover), you fade them the next game.

The fact is, they loosened the belt and wrecklessly blew a solid plus .500 record. Nothing makes me lose respect for a team, a player, a coach etc. than getting cocky, loosening the belt and forgetting how to win again. Applies to everything and is a big concept for me coincidentally in NCAAF (just sent out week 1 in my newsletter by the way)...I focus on the coaches in NCAAF more than anything else. I want to know everything about them; what time they go to bed, what they eat for breakfast....and, by the same token, do the tend to rest on their laurels and lose sitting on huge paychecks or do they keep their foot on the pedal. Best way right there to snowball things in NCAAF.

Enough of this rant. Time to kills fleas...

Good luck guys.
 
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Posted: #809
Quote Originally Posted by herbshack:


I'm going to follow that thought up with this one...maybe this is a long shot prediction, but I say, if the Marlins win here (win, not cover), you fade them the next game.

The fact is, they loosened the belt and wrecklessly blew a solid plus .500 record. Nothing makes me lose respect for a team, a player, a coach etc. than getting cocky, loosening the belt and forgetting how to win again. Applies to everything and is a big concept for me coincidentally in NCAAF (just sent out week 1 in my newsletter by the way)...I focus on the coaches in NCAAF more than anything else. I want to know everything about them; what time they go to bed, what they eat for breakfast....and, by the same token, do the tend to rest on their laurels and lose sitting on huge paychecks or do they keep their foot on the pedal. Best way right there to snowball things in NCAAF.

Enough of this rant. Time to kills fleas...

Good luck guys.

Awesome bro. DeGrom is overrated in my opinion so its not necessarily a bad bet. I just feel like it is a bit of arisk with the Marlins bats I think I am going to lay off and follow your NCAA picks for sure though. Good luck with the fleas!
 
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Posted: #810
I like the Under on this game !
 
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Posted: #811
Quote Originally Posted by herbshack:

$137 to win $176.73
Miami Marlins +1 +129  WINNER!
vs New York Mets

So we open the month of September breaking through a huge milestone: $10,000.00

Current Bankroll: $10,171.78
from $4000 (+154.29 units)
 
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Posted: #812
Much respect for your discipline
 
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Posted: #813
Thanks Herb!
 
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Posted: #814
Gl today.
 
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Posted: #815
a true beast. thanks for the excellent long term thread. and good luck with the fleas :) better fleas than bed bugs imo
 
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Posted: #816
Herb, you started this thread in sept 2012, and now you reached over $10k?
 
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Posted: #817
Quote Originally Posted by Efini:

Herb, you started this thread in sept 2012, and now you reached over $10k?

From a starting hypothetical bankroll of $4k. Plus over 150 "units" now is more accurate to say.
 
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Posted: #818
Hey look, Marlins lost their next one like I was saying. Consider Brewers today; not 100% on it yet.
 
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Posted: #819
$141 to win $218.55 
San Diego Padres +155 
vs Boston Red Sox

I see one sort of obscure book out there with +175 on this one fyi. +155 is the best a few different big books have that I can personally find. Anyways, the thought here is: play a large dog off of a win as a large dog. That's it. Huge roi; keep it simple folks. BOL and go Padres!
 
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Posted: #820
Phillies lookin' good too...
 
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Posted: #821
Well it's Setember again,
meaning Herbal's on his positive trend
and he's 2-0 so he's our best friend.

Excellent piece of advice from Herb:
"play a large dog off of a win as a large dog.
 That's it. Huge roi; keep it simple folks."
 
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Posted: #822
Quote Originally Posted by herbshack:

Phillies lookin' good too...


Make that 3-0 for Herb's doggy-woggy September run
I'm afraid herbal goes undefeated and blows up Cover's servers...
 
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Posted: #823
Hey Herb,

Do you know what Home Dogs are in Interleague games this season?
 
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Posted: #824
1st page of September 2016 - deserving reiterations:

Herb comes back strong as Sept is MONEY time. Get out yer wallets.

Keep focusing on the bullpens and you'll keep on doing well. 
The public focuses in too heavily on the bats & starting pitchers
so an edge definately exists in knowing things like:
how much rest the bullpen is on last 7 days,
since last game, etc...
Bullpen systems are quite useful for W's & O/U's.

Dogs just do their thing in for Herb in September. 
While all the noobs are losing money on 1st Weeks on NFL & NCAAF,
look at MLB.  ..After MLB tho',
start pounding away on those fb teams that left
a bitter taste in the public's mouth early on....

Gonna rock September exactly as has been done since 2012:
esp., looking for the uncanny dog off of a win in this last month.

The public gets killed every year trying to get fancy in July & August
then only wants to bet favorites in the regular season's last month (post-deadline), just when the fav's start letting down as they clinch.

Woof woof!!... r.r.r.r.r...Woof!!!

 
 
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Posted: #825
now for that i'd say best gambling approach

4 years and return of 150%, hope you reach 12k this season, i really do
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