Haha ya, Herb has over 200K viewers on his post and lets some idiot call his 2-3 game losing "cold" bother him. Get real Herb we all appreciate your picks and know you're legit.
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Haha ya, Herb has over 200K viewers on his post and lets some idiot call his 2-3 game losing "cold" bother him. Get real Herb we all appreciate your picks and know you're legit.
I have Baltimore today actually. Now remember, the odds are +170 on the moneyline here so, it is implied that the odds are that, very likely, Baltimore won't win. I disagree, and think the odds are more like 50/50 and see value here. If it loses, cest la vie. Doesn't mean we're cold. That's just how it goes betting dogs. It is fun to feel like you're winning more often betting favorites, but most people don't pull out any long term profit...but then again, most bettors out there aren't profiting betting dogs or whatever else too.
$607.43 to win $735
Baltimore Orioles +1 +121
vs Toronto Blue Jays
Quick thought on the wager:
We have a split series here. Last game and then Baltimore hits the road over to New York. In divisional matchups, history favors the road dog in September games since 2004 at a 128-141 (only 47.6% SU), but an average line of +147.5 and +45.88 units profit and +17.1 ROI on the blind. I also like the Orioles in a spot where they pulled the 1 run upset win under Buck Showalter. He's 84-66 +38.1 units in that situation if it is a divisional matchup. Go O's.
PS: I'm sorry you saw that as defensive housemoney21...and maybe you're right; however, I like helping people, and what (in my mind at least) I was doing was calling out an issue/phenomenon I've seen over many yearswhere gamblers tend to overreact to recent performance and then completely change up their gambling strategy. I've seen people say, 'it is time to start fading' a viable long term system that's gone cold (or at least percieved to be cold) and then the whole thing turns into a gigantic mess and everyone starts fighting...mostly seen it over at SBR forum; won't ever post there again...whole other story. Anyways, everybody starts losing going back and forth on fading when cold and playing after a hot run and regression mows them down. People get mad at the poster etc. Just trying to avoid all that.
Keep your eyes on the money and stay the course and stay disciplined. You're right, I'm probably wasting my time getting all in a huff and defensive. Sometimes I get a little too passionate...
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Quote Originally Posted by monkeebooger:
Herb- any feedback on Baltimore today bud?
I have Baltimore today actually. Now remember, the odds are +170 on the moneyline here so, it is implied that the odds are that, very likely, Baltimore won't win. I disagree, and think the odds are more like 50/50 and see value here. If it loses, cest la vie. Doesn't mean we're cold. That's just how it goes betting dogs. It is fun to feel like you're winning more often betting favorites, but most people don't pull out any long term profit...but then again, most bettors out there aren't profiting betting dogs or whatever else too.
$607.43 to win $735
Baltimore Orioles +1 +121
vs Toronto Blue Jays
Quick thought on the wager:
We have a split series here. Last game and then Baltimore hits the road over to New York. In divisional matchups, history favors the road dog in September games since 2004 at a 128-141 (only 47.6% SU), but an average line of +147.5 and +45.88 units profit and +17.1 ROI on the blind. I also like the Orioles in a spot where they pulled the 1 run upset win under Buck Showalter. He's 84-66 +38.1 units in that situation if it is a divisional matchup. Go O's.
PS: I'm sorry you saw that as defensive housemoney21...and maybe you're right; however, I like helping people, and what (in my mind at least) I was doing was calling out an issue/phenomenon I've seen over many yearswhere gamblers tend to overreact to recent performance and then completely change up their gambling strategy. I've seen people say, 'it is time to start fading' a viable long term system that's gone cold (or at least percieved to be cold) and then the whole thing turns into a gigantic mess and everyone starts fighting...mostly seen it over at SBR forum; won't ever post there again...whole other story. Anyways, everybody starts losing going back and forth on fading when cold and playing after a hot run and regression mows them down. People get mad at the poster etc. Just trying to avoid all that.
Keep your eyes on the money and stay the course and stay disciplined. You're right, I'm probably wasting my time getting all in a huff and defensive. Sometimes I get a little too passionate...
Due to Herb's low profile nature, our long history warrants that I have to clue new readership in: His FB-savvy is greater still — so to the haters who've posted, you were attacking his side job.
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Due to Herb's low profile nature, our long history warrants that I have to clue new readership in: His FB-savvy is greater still — so to the haters who've posted, you were attacking his side job.
Due to Herb's low profile nature, our long history warrants that I have to clue new readership in: His FB-savvy is greater still — so to the haters who've posted, you were attacking his side job.
Lol, thanks Pendo.
To clarify: I don't want to say anyone was 'hatin' -- I just got a little passionate about people turning away when they think a viable system is cold. Doesn't mean you're hating; it is actually a very common, normal human nature thing you just have to resist.
Here's an example. Very simple:
In NCAAF, I look to bet a team off ot 3+ straight losses facing a team off of 3+ straight wins.
That's it. So simple.
It can be that simple because it is, what I call, a 'gut-twister' or a 'nose-pincher' bet. That is, the bet feels horribly uncomfortable....
And that is really what you want, and by the same token, you should be very very wary of putting your hard earned money on a bet you feel very great and very comfortable about.
Betting can be very easy if you think about it this way.
Find your squarest friend, show him the Sunday NFL card and ask him, as an NFL fan, quickly, who he or she would bet. Then just bet the opposite and I bet you'd do well. That is how the whole industry works; linesmakers don't think about getting even money so much as they try to get the majority of the bettors on the wrong side by thinking ahead and over chalking up a line on a public darling. Knowing that flawed and inherent human nature dictates most bettors' every decision.
Take it to the bank
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Quote Originally Posted by Pendo:
Due to Herb's low profile nature, our long history warrants that I have to clue new readership in: His FB-savvy is greater still — so to the haters who've posted, you were attacking his side job.
Lol, thanks Pendo.
To clarify: I don't want to say anyone was 'hatin' -- I just got a little passionate about people turning away when they think a viable system is cold. Doesn't mean you're hating; it is actually a very common, normal human nature thing you just have to resist.
Here's an example. Very simple:
In NCAAF, I look to bet a team off ot 3+ straight losses facing a team off of 3+ straight wins.
That's it. So simple.
It can be that simple because it is, what I call, a 'gut-twister' or a 'nose-pincher' bet. That is, the bet feels horribly uncomfortable....
And that is really what you want, and by the same token, you should be very very wary of putting your hard earned money on a bet you feel very great and very comfortable about.
Betting can be very easy if you think about it this way.
Find your squarest friend, show him the Sunday NFL card and ask him, as an NFL fan, quickly, who he or she would bet. Then just bet the opposite and I bet you'd do well. That is how the whole industry works; linesmakers don't think about getting even money so much as they try to get the majority of the bettors on the wrong side by thinking ahead and over chalking up a line on a public darling. Knowing that flawed and inherent human nature dictates most bettors' every decision.
Please adjust the computer program for the games tomorrow all starting at the same time (because of the implications derived from this year's Wild WILD CARDTIEs
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Herb —• you're smokin' !
Please adjust the computer program for the games tomorrow all starting at the same time (because of the implications derived from this year's Wild WILD CARDTIEs
Please adjust the computer program for the games tomorrow all starting at the same time (because of the implications derived from this year's Wild WILD CARDTIEs
rearrange that a little...
—• you're smokin' !
Herb
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Quote Originally Posted by Pendo:
Herb —• you're smokin' !
Please adjust the computer program for the games tomorrow all starting at the same time (because of the implications derived from this year's Wild WILD CARDTIEs
I haven't been keeping track of the SU w/l record, but is probably nothing special at around 45 to 52% since we're only betting plus odds on everything. If someone wants to go back through the thread and get that, I suppose it would be interesting, but all that really matters to me is the $$$.
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Quote Originally Posted by Dbreezyy:
whats your record this year?
Current Bankroll: $10,456.15
from $4000 (+161.40 units)
I haven't been keeping track of the SU w/l record, but is probably nothing special at around 45 to 52% since we're only betting plus odds on everything. If someone wants to go back through the thread and get that, I suppose it would be interesting, but all that really matters to me is the $$$.
Current Bankroll: $10,456.15from $4000 (+161.40 units)I haven't been keeping track of the SU w/l record, but is probably nothing special at around 45 to 52% since we're only betting plus odds on everything. If someone wants to go back through the thread and get that, I suppose it would be interesting, but all that really matters to me is the $$$.
You up that many units since 2012 or this year?
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Quote Originally Posted by herbshack:
Quote Originally Posted by Dbreezyy:
whats your record this year?
Current Bankroll: $10,456.15from $4000 (+161.40 units)I haven't been keeping track of the SU w/l record, but is probably nothing special at around 45 to 52% since we're only betting plus odds on everything. If someone wants to go back through the thread and get that, I suppose it would be interesting, but all that really matters to me is the $$$.
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