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September Dogs - Starting with $4k

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Posted: #1426

Your winning ways never cease Herbals !!

 
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Posted: #1427
Hey guys, sorry I've been absent in the playoffs. I did well, but didn't have time to post.

The game now is difficult to prediction, but my lean.....a sort of weak lean.....is on the Dodgers:

Here are some important factors to consider:

2 other pretty big systems FOR the Dodgers (systems, not trends)

...but then we have this beast of a system liking the Astros:

Although....if you dissect that one, it completely flips to 2-9 SU (+42.5% roi fade ML / +84.7% roi fade RL) looking only at World Series games, later in the series, road teams only averaging at least a half a run negative run per game SU margin in their last 4 games. The Astros fit that bill as a fade.


 
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Posted: #1428
Quote Originally Posted by herbshack:

 
Los Angeles Dodgers -1.25 +124 WINNER!
vs Chicago Cubs 
$154 to win $190.96 

Current Bankroll: $13,807.95
from $4000 (+245.20 units)

Sorry again, was afk for a while and never updated after that last win. That win brought the record to a new all time high for the thread (since 9/6/2012).

Whatever you bet, you doubled your money if you tailed all of it, and then some. MLB is coming to an end now, but I'll most likely be back next year doing the same thing here.
 
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Posted: #1429
For today, I like the Dodgers, but really don't want to force a bet here. The Dodgers might be a trap and we're on the public side, so 

Los Angeles Dodgers -1.25 +116
vs Houston Astros
$15 to win $17.40

Small "Beer Money" Play
Read the writeup in the other post (2 back)
 
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Posted: #1430
Quote Originally Posted by herbshack:

For today, I like the Dodgers, but really don't want to force a bet here. The Dodgers might be a trap and we're on the public side, so 

Los Angeles Dodgers -1.25 +116
vs Houston Astros
$15 to win $17.40

Small "Beer Money" Play
Read the writeup in the other post (2 back)
 
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Posts: 1096
Posted: #1431
you have no idea how happy i am to see you on my boys in blue 


cheers and good luck to the dodgers!!!!!!!
 
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Posted: #1432
Quote Originally Posted by MONEYMISFITS:

you have no idea how happy i am to see you on my boys in blue 


cheers and good luck to the dodgers!!!!!!!

Glad it was Beer money :)  They tried....maybe :P

Season Ends!

Current Bankroll: $13,792.95
from $4000 (+244.82 units)

Started thread in 2013. 
Profit this season was +71.01 units 

See you all next year, hopefully in April 2018 we'll continue. First month is great for dogs traditionally.
 
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Posted: #1433
BOL this year herb 
 
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Posted: #1434

Herbs?

 
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Posted: #1435
Hehe. Sorry guys, I took a vacation.
Plan to get going again when the dogs start barking late season
....so soon!

 
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Posted: #1436
Just a quick recap and we'll trickle back into this:

Started thread in 2013. 
Profit last season was +71.01 units 

Current Bankroll: $13,792.95
from $4000 (+244.82 units)


Let's get 'em!

 
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Posted: #1437
Just a note:
Originally the thread was dogs only, but the primary objective that is rooted from is the premise: 
*We are dealing with professional athletics organizations. There shouldn't be a need to lay the chalk really ever. Of course, that is a very loose theory and concept which isn't true in the real world; however, with outliers within the greater sample size filtered out (matchups without any parity. eg. A struggling organization that drafted poorly vs. an ace squad properly funded and managed team does happen, but I say they're outlier situations we're better off avoiding or taking the long shots).

With that said, we will always have a lean towards dogs, but the core idea is to get plus odds assuming all things are created equal and for the interest of MLB as a business and profit making organization: parity within the league is always going to be paramount. Therefore, it would be wise to assume when in doubt: these are professional athletes and the games should, by and large go 50/50...so at a 50% win rate, you're making money on dogs.

Again, very very loose theory and borderline just a person preference with some logic backing it. 
Every bet should be plus odds though...parlays, over unders with plus odds, dogs, runlines on favorites, asian handicaps, etc.

I hope you all have been well. Let's rock.
Let's rock...
 
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Posted: #1438

Quote Originally Posted by herbshack:

Just a note:Originally the thread was dogs only, but the primary objective that is rooted from is the premise: *We are dealing with professional athletics organizations. There shouldn't be a need to lay the chalk really ever. Of course, that is a very loose theory and concept which isn't true in the real world; however, with outliers within the greater sample size filtered out (matchups without any parity. eg. A struggling organization that drafted poorly vs. an ace squad properly funded and managed team does happen, but I say they're outlier situations we're better off avoiding or taking the long shots).With that said, we will always have a lean towards dogs, but the core idea is to get plus odds assuming all things are created equal and for the interest of MLB as a business and profit making organization: parity within the league is always going to be paramount. Therefore, it would be wise to assume when in doubt: these are professional athletes and the games should, by and large go 50/50...so at a 50% win rate, you're making money on dogs.Again, very very loose theory and borderline just a person preference with some logic backing it. Every bet should be plus odds though...parlays, over unders with plus odds, dogs, runlines on favorites, asian handicaps, etc.I hope you all have been well. Let's rock.Let's rock...
Fuckín' Shack is back. an_cheers

The pen is mightier than the pigs
 
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Posted: #1439
Stl. Cardinals -1.25 +101
vs KC Royals
$15 to win $15.15

MLB TREND OF THE DAY: Road Favorites over -147 since 2010 (total<10.5) have gone 100-41 +31.32 units (Take the Cardinals ; consider Indians, Phillies and Red Sox as well today)

Current Bankroll: $13,792.95
from $4000 (+244.82 units)

 
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Posted: #1440
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
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Posted: #1441
Welcome back
No team is as good as it looks when winning nor are they as bad as they look when losing
 
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Posted: #1442
Herbshack in the house 
 
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Posted: #1443
 
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Posted: #1444
The greatest capper on covers
Nice to see you back
 
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Posted: #1445
Thanks. Glad to be.

 
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Posted: #1446
anything today?
 
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Posted: #1447
Quote Originally Posted by herbshack:

Stl. Cardinals -1.25 +101 WINNER!
vs KC Royals
$15 to win $15.15

MLB TREND OF THE DAY: Road Favorites over -147 since 2010 (total<10.5) have gone 100-41 +31.32 units (Take the Cardinals ; consider Indians, Phillies and Red Sox as well today)

Kicking things off right with a nice big blowout win for the Cardies 8-3 on the road....

Current Bankroll: $13,808.10
from $4000 (+245.20 units)


Will post in a bit if I have anything...
 
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Posted: #1448
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
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Posted: #1449
Lean on the Dodgers, but passing. Good luck today yalls.
 
 
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Posts: 1630
Posted: #1450
Hi Herbshack, Are you coming out to play today ? Very much looking forward to your keen eye on Baseball Winning plays. A little over 3 weeks to meaningful Football games and am looking to pad the bankroll prior to opening week 

Continued Success Sir...   
DaBreeze
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