SJSharks - Saturday Bases

Cardinals ML (-115) @ Cubs: On Saturday we have the opportunity to back a very hot Reds team at a good price. The line is this low due to Jeff Samardzija recent outings being solid. He has pitched well going 2-1 with a 1.80 era but he is still a sub-par pitcher, who is 7-8 with a 4.25 era this season. He also struggles in day starts going 3-5 with a 6.35 era. Saturday's contest is a gonna be a bright sunny afternoon day game. The Cardinals are countering with a hot pitcher of their own in Joe Kelly. Entering Saturday's contest Joe Kelly is 1-3 but has a solid 2.78 era. Joe Kelly hasn't given up more then 3 runs in any start this season. If one of these 2 starters is gonna implode on Saturday, 2012's history has shown it's more likely gonna be Jeff Samardzija. Both of these starters are right handed pitchers and entering this contest the Cubs rank #29 against righties, meanwhile the Cardinals rank #3. Both the Reds and Pirates were victorious on Friday night in the heated NL Central. The big bats from the Cardinals have had success against Jeff Samardzjia... Molina, Beltran, Holliday and Jay are a combined 8-20 with a .400 average. The Cubs have never seen Joe Kelly pitch before which should give him an advantage navigating through the line up the first few times. The Cardinals know they need continue their winning ways (W4, 7-3 L10) and handle business vs. a weaker opponent in the Cubs on Saturday.  At a good price, sign me up



Nationals ML (-123) @ Brewers: The Nationals getting blasted 8-0 on Friday is a blessing in disguise for Nats backers on Saturday. This team has been extremely hot and had been scoring runs at will prior to Friday's game. This game should serve as a bit of a reality check and should bring those egos back down a bit. I expect the Nationals to get right back on track with their winning ways on Saturday. Beyond that angle, we have the favorable pitching advantage in this game. The Nationals will be sending arguably the hottest pitcher in the league to the hill in Jordan Zimmerman. He is hasn't lost since June 22nd against Baltimore, in a game which he only allowed 2 runs. This season he has only allowed more then 2 runs 1 time all year and that a was 3 spot against Boston. He has given up 1 run or less in 6 straight starts. His era in his last 3 outings is a jaw dropping 0.50. On the other side of the hill the Brewers will be countering with Randy Wolf, who honestly should already be retired. He has his moments, but his 3-6 record and a 5.46 era isn't something to write home about. The best years are behind this 13 year veteran and he will face a potent Nationals line up that will light him up on Saturday. The Nats have several guys with good numbers vs. Wolf. Ryan Zimmerman is 4-11 with a .364 avg, Adam LaRoche is 7-22 with a .311 avg, Jesus Flores is even 3-6 with a .500 avg. The Brewers Cody Ransom is the only person who has ever seen Jordan Zimmerman before (1-3 .333 avg). That plays right into another angle I like alot. Zimmerman should have the upper hand navigating through the Brewers line up the first few times through the batting order. The Brewers will find out really quickly how good Zimmerman is. I was tempted to roll with the RL here but the since the ML line is a good price, I am just gonna take that.



Reds ML (-155) @ Rockies: The most chalky play on my card is warranted since it's the hottest team in Baseball. The Reds enter this contest winners of 8 in a row and they are steamrolling in July with an ridiculous 16-2 mark. They will square off against a Rockies team who just traded their starting 2B in Marco Scudaro. This wasn't going anywhere anytime soon of course, but they have definitely waved the towel. The Reds will be sending their ace Johnny Cueto in this game. Cueto is 12-5 with a 2.23 era on the season, he is also 3-0 with a 1.45 era in his last 3 starts. Cueto did struggling in an earlier start this year vs the Rockies allowing 5 runs on 11 hits, but the Rockies line up he faced on May 25th and the line up he faces on Saturday is much different. The biggest piece is Troy Tuluwitzki not being in the line up. Troy's valuable to the Rockies really shows with him being out. Cargo still gets his because he is a phenom, but teams can pitcher around Cargo, because they don't have to worry about Troy being the line up. Instead the Rockies have Michael Cuddyer in the 4th spot. If your team is batting Cuddyer in the clean up spot, you obviously have some major problems. The Rockies will be sending left hander Christian Friedrich to the mound. He is 5-7 with a 5.71 era this season, 1-1 with a 4.60 era in his last 3 starts. Friedrich has also been absolutely AWFUL at home this year (2-4 with a 8.23 era). The south paw will have a hard time shutting down the Reds who are #6 in the league vs. Lefties. The Reds should have no problem getting the lead in this contest, allowing their ace to hand the rock over to the #1 bullpen in the late stages, en route to win #9 in a row.



Tigers ML (-127) @ Blue Jays: The Blue Jays were able to walk away with a pretty impressive victory on Friday. The joys of that victory will be short lived though. On Saturday the newly acquired Anibal Sanchez will be making his debut for the Tigers. On the season Sanchez is 5-7 with a 3.94 era. He didn't get any help from a anemic Marlins offense. Sanchez enters Saturday's contest having performed well in 3 straight contents all on the road against the Pirates, Cubs and Cardinals. In those 3 starts he allowed 3 runs or fewer and had a nice combined 18 to 2 strikeout to walk ratio. Sanchez will wanna have a good first outing to impressive his new teammates. On the other side of the hill the Blue Jays will be countering with a struggling Henderson Alvarez. Alvarez is 6-7 with a 4.61 era, but the wheels have fallen off in his last 3 starts, where has has gone 1-1 with an era of 7.41. The Tigers are ranked #5 against right handed pitching and they should be able to have their way with a struggling Alvarez. This feels like a very good spot for the Tigers to get back on track after dropping their last 2 games.






Saturday's card has some tough lines and even tougher totals. I am gonna lay off the totals and ride these 4 money line plays. I also wish I could throw a dog into the mix, but I am struggling to pinpoint which dog I think will have a day. Id much rather not try and force anything that doesn't need to be forced.



Feeling good about this card... best of luck to everyone on Saturday