Thursday 2-3 (-0.62 units): I hit the play that mattered the most but other than it was a pretty blah kinda day. I have to give credit when credit is due, for all those that stopped in my thread warning me about fading the A's, you guys were right. No fading the green machine anytime soon.
Thursday 2-3 (-0.62 units): I hit the play that mattered the most but other than it was a pretty blah kinda day. I have to give credit when credit is due, for all those that stopped in my thread warning me about fading the A's, you guys were right. No fading the green machine anytime soon.
Dodgers @ D'Backs U 8 (-118) 2 Units: The
Dodgers will be sending Clayton Kershaw to the mound in this one and so
far in 2 starts he has been pretty much untouchable. In 16 innings of
work, Clayton still hasn't allowed a run thus far. What is even more
impressive is his 16K/1BB ratio, to go with a ridiculously good whip of
0.44. He will have a good opportunity to keep the ball rolling against
an Arizona team that has struggled against lefties the past couple
seasons. Arizona comes in hitting just .186 so far this year against
south paws and they will be facing the best left handed pitcher in the
game on Friday imo. Kershaw has a career era of 2.25, 1.11 whip, and has
held Arizona to a .205 batting average in 14 appearances. Those #s were
pretty close to his right in line with his 2012 #s vs Arizona, where he
had a 2.40 era, 1.26 whip and a .236 average against in 4 appearances. On the other side of the mound Arizona will be countering with a very good young lefty of their own in Patrick Corbin. Corbin is entering his 2nd season in the Majors, and he kicked it off with an impressive road victory against a good offensive team in Milwaukee. In that outing Corbin went 6 innings, allowing 2 runs on 8 hits, walking 1 and striking out 2. This will be the 4th time Corbin has faced the Dodgers and so far he has pitched very good against them. Corbin comes in with an era of 1.88, to go with a 1.26 whip and the Dodgers are hitting just .218 against him. I watched Corbin pitch a lot last season and I was very impressed. He has great stuff and no doubt will be competing with Miley for the next few years to be the ace for the D'Backs. Corbin like many other young pitchers really enjoyed home cooking during his rookie year last season. He had a 2.69 era, 1.11 whip and .254 batting average against at home last season, compared to an era in the 6s, a whip of 1.54 and a .300 batting average against on the road. Luckily this game will be at the friendly confines of Chase field. I really think we will have a pitchers dual in this one and that's why I made it 2 units, I will be very very surprised if this play missed. I just don't see how this game isn't a low scoring affair with 2 very good lefties on the mound who are both very confident heading into this one.
Mets ML (-102) 1 Unit: 2
words for you... Jonathon Niese!!! I really like what the lefty Niese
brings to the table for the Mets. He finished his 2012 season on a high
note and he instantly snatched the top spot in the rotation this season
following the departure of some guy named RA Dickey. Has anyone seen
that Dickey guy? Rumor has it he is stranded in Canada trying to find
the nearest Tim Hortons for a pack of smokes. Anyways sorry I got
carried away their for a minute but back to Niese. So far in his 2
starts in 2013 Niese is 1-0, with a 2.13 era, 9K/4BB ratio, whip of 1.26
and batting average against of .250. Niese will be making his first
road start of the year but that shouldn't be a detractor in anyway since
Niese actually did better on the road then he did at home in 2012.
Niese had a road era of 3.04 compared to a home era of 3.77. As
mentioned above, Niese finished 2012 with a good amount of confidence as
well. Prior to the All Star game Niese had a 3.73 era, after the All
Star game he brought that down to 3.03. Then he kicked 2013 off with 2
strong outings. This will be Niese's 2nd career start against the Twins
and the first one went very well. In that outing Niese went 6 scoreless
innings, allowing just 4 hits, walking 3 and striking out 5. That start
did come 3 years ago though so there isn't much value to that, if
anything I am happy it was that long ago. Niese will be facing a Twins
team that has very little to no experience at all against him, which of
course should give him the advantage in terms of familiarity factor. On
the other side of the mound the Twins will be going with Vance Worley.
The ex Philly will have no such advantage as Mets have seen a ton of
their former divisional rival. This will be Worley's 10th career start
against the Mets and so far he is 3-3 with an era of 5.17, whip of 1.77
and the Mets are hitting .329 against him. The Mets line up should know
exactly what he will be bringing to the table on Friday. Worley hasn't
gotten off to a good start either in 2013. In his first 2 outings he has
a 5.73 era, 1.82 whip and teams are hitting .360 against him, he has
allowed 8 runs on 18 hits in just 11 innings of work. Beyond the
starting pitching major advantage for the Mets. The offensive splits
should also come into play. The Mets are currently hitting .278 right
handed pitchers, meanwhile the Twins are hitting just .185 against
lefties. I try and pick my spots when backing the Mets as they have
burned me in the past. That being said, this feels like a great spot to
back them at almost even money. If this game was being played in Citi
Field the Mets would be around -140, so I like the value I am getting
with them with the better starter, edge in terms of familiarity vs the
opposing pitcher and a nice advantage in terms of offensive splits
(albeit a small sample size).
Reds ML (-101) 1 Unit:
Well I am sure this will be the most public play on Friday's slate, but
I simply can't help but pull the trigger. If I have fallen for the bait
then so be it. The fact of the matter is the Reds are on a different
wavelength then the Pirates. The pitching match up in this one is about
even with the Pirates getting the nod, but the offensive advantage for
the Reds is a landslide and that is where the problem lies for the
Pirates. The Pirates offense is just flat out awful and that will be the
major reason they regress from their 2012 season imo. If the Reds can
get the early lead in this one that could spell trouble for the Pirates
who definitely don't have team designed to play catch up style baseball.
Burnett enters this game 0-2 on the season with an era of 3.27, a whip
of 1.36 and batting average against of .243. He has pitched well but
against the Pirates offense is just flat out anemic. Burnett is 5-5 in
his career against the Reds with a 4.06 era, 1.30 whip and .237 batting
average against. Leake will be getting the starting nod for the Reds in
this one. His opening start of 2012 wasn't the greatest, he allowed 4
runs on 6 hits in 6 innings of work against the Nationals. That start
came at home where Leake has struggled due like many pitchers due to the
fact Great American Ballpark is very hitter friendly park. Leake has a
4.69 career era at home, and a 3.74 era on the road. In 2012 his home
era was 5.54 compared to his 3.65 era on the road. In 2012 Leake made 2
starts at the friendlier PNC Park, posting a 2.08 era, 1.11 whip and he
held the Pirates offense to just a .174 batting average. I did also like
the fact Leake has held the only true real threat the Pirates have
Andrew McCutchen to a .200 average, 6-30, 5 of them being singles and
just 1 home run. This won't be the first or last bet I win or lose, but I
definitely feel like I am getting my money in good on the much better
team at a good price. I think if the Reds muster up a couple runs of
support for Leake, that's all it might take against an ice cold
offensively challenged Pirates team.
As always, best of luck to everyone on Friday
0
Friday
Dodgers @ D'Backs U 8 (-118) 2 Units: The
Dodgers will be sending Clayton Kershaw to the mound in this one and so
far in 2 starts he has been pretty much untouchable. In 16 innings of
work, Clayton still hasn't allowed a run thus far. What is even more
impressive is his 16K/1BB ratio, to go with a ridiculously good whip of
0.44. He will have a good opportunity to keep the ball rolling against
an Arizona team that has struggled against lefties the past couple
seasons. Arizona comes in hitting just .186 so far this year against
south paws and they will be facing the best left handed pitcher in the
game on Friday imo. Kershaw has a career era of 2.25, 1.11 whip, and has
held Arizona to a .205 batting average in 14 appearances. Those #s were
pretty close to his right in line with his 2012 #s vs Arizona, where he
had a 2.40 era, 1.26 whip and a .236 average against in 4 appearances. On the other side of the mound Arizona will be countering with a very good young lefty of their own in Patrick Corbin. Corbin is entering his 2nd season in the Majors, and he kicked it off with an impressive road victory against a good offensive team in Milwaukee. In that outing Corbin went 6 innings, allowing 2 runs on 8 hits, walking 1 and striking out 2. This will be the 4th time Corbin has faced the Dodgers and so far he has pitched very good against them. Corbin comes in with an era of 1.88, to go with a 1.26 whip and the Dodgers are hitting just .218 against him. I watched Corbin pitch a lot last season and I was very impressed. He has great stuff and no doubt will be competing with Miley for the next few years to be the ace for the D'Backs. Corbin like many other young pitchers really enjoyed home cooking during his rookie year last season. He had a 2.69 era, 1.11 whip and .254 batting average against at home last season, compared to an era in the 6s, a whip of 1.54 and a .300 batting average against on the road. Luckily this game will be at the friendly confines of Chase field. I really think we will have a pitchers dual in this one and that's why I made it 2 units, I will be very very surprised if this play missed. I just don't see how this game isn't a low scoring affair with 2 very good lefties on the mound who are both very confident heading into this one.
Mets ML (-102) 1 Unit: 2
words for you... Jonathon Niese!!! I really like what the lefty Niese
brings to the table for the Mets. He finished his 2012 season on a high
note and he instantly snatched the top spot in the rotation this season
following the departure of some guy named RA Dickey. Has anyone seen
that Dickey guy? Rumor has it he is stranded in Canada trying to find
the nearest Tim Hortons for a pack of smokes. Anyways sorry I got
carried away their for a minute but back to Niese. So far in his 2
starts in 2013 Niese is 1-0, with a 2.13 era, 9K/4BB ratio, whip of 1.26
and batting average against of .250. Niese will be making his first
road start of the year but that shouldn't be a detractor in anyway since
Niese actually did better on the road then he did at home in 2012.
Niese had a road era of 3.04 compared to a home era of 3.77. As
mentioned above, Niese finished 2012 with a good amount of confidence as
well. Prior to the All Star game Niese had a 3.73 era, after the All
Star game he brought that down to 3.03. Then he kicked 2013 off with 2
strong outings. This will be Niese's 2nd career start against the Twins
and the first one went very well. In that outing Niese went 6 scoreless
innings, allowing just 4 hits, walking 3 and striking out 5. That start
did come 3 years ago though so there isn't much value to that, if
anything I am happy it was that long ago. Niese will be facing a Twins
team that has very little to no experience at all against him, which of
course should give him the advantage in terms of familiarity factor. On
the other side of the mound the Twins will be going with Vance Worley.
The ex Philly will have no such advantage as Mets have seen a ton of
their former divisional rival. This will be Worley's 10th career start
against the Mets and so far he is 3-3 with an era of 5.17, whip of 1.77
and the Mets are hitting .329 against him. The Mets line up should know
exactly what he will be bringing to the table on Friday. Worley hasn't
gotten off to a good start either in 2013. In his first 2 outings he has
a 5.73 era, 1.82 whip and teams are hitting .360 against him, he has
allowed 8 runs on 18 hits in just 11 innings of work. Beyond the
starting pitching major advantage for the Mets. The offensive splits
should also come into play. The Mets are currently hitting .278 right
handed pitchers, meanwhile the Twins are hitting just .185 against
lefties. I try and pick my spots when backing the Mets as they have
burned me in the past. That being said, this feels like a great spot to
back them at almost even money. If this game was being played in Citi
Field the Mets would be around -140, so I like the value I am getting
with them with the better starter, edge in terms of familiarity vs the
opposing pitcher and a nice advantage in terms of offensive splits
(albeit a small sample size).
Reds ML (-101) 1 Unit:
Well I am sure this will be the most public play on Friday's slate, but
I simply can't help but pull the trigger. If I have fallen for the bait
then so be it. The fact of the matter is the Reds are on a different
wavelength then the Pirates. The pitching match up in this one is about
even with the Pirates getting the nod, but the offensive advantage for
the Reds is a landslide and that is where the problem lies for the
Pirates. The Pirates offense is just flat out awful and that will be the
major reason they regress from their 2012 season imo. If the Reds can
get the early lead in this one that could spell trouble for the Pirates
who definitely don't have team designed to play catch up style baseball.
Burnett enters this game 0-2 on the season with an era of 3.27, a whip
of 1.36 and batting average against of .243. He has pitched well but
against the Pirates offense is just flat out anemic. Burnett is 5-5 in
his career against the Reds with a 4.06 era, 1.30 whip and .237 batting
average against. Leake will be getting the starting nod for the Reds in
this one. His opening start of 2012 wasn't the greatest, he allowed 4
runs on 6 hits in 6 innings of work against the Nationals. That start
came at home where Leake has struggled due like many pitchers due to the
fact Great American Ballpark is very hitter friendly park. Leake has a
4.69 career era at home, and a 3.74 era on the road. In 2012 his home
era was 5.54 compared to his 3.65 era on the road. In 2012 Leake made 2
starts at the friendlier PNC Park, posting a 2.08 era, 1.11 whip and he
held the Pirates offense to just a .174 batting average. I did also like
the fact Leake has held the only true real threat the Pirates have
Andrew McCutchen to a .200 average, 6-30, 5 of them being singles and
just 1 home run. This won't be the first or last bet I win or lose, but I
definitely feel like I am getting my money in good on the much better
team at a good price. I think if the Reds muster up a couple runs of
support for Leake, that's all it might take against an ice cold
offensively challenged Pirates team.
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