Posted:
#1
Wednesday: 3-1 + 2.03 Units
I had a good feeling heading into Wednesday's slate that I was gonna be in the green for the season at the conclusion of the night. The Giants, Rays and Nats TT made the hunch a reality. I was a little mad @ myself for talking myself out of the D'Backs RL and going with the under in that game, but those things are gonna happen and you just gotta move on. Let's hope I can keep the ball rolling and not look in the rear view mirror.
Season: 21-19-1 (+1.06 Units)
ML: 8-7
RL: 1-2
Totals: 11-8-1
Grand Salami: 0-2
Props: 1-0
Thursday Plays
Orioles ML (+109) 2 Units: Simply too much value in the underdog O's in this one. I was a big fan of Chris Tillman in 2012 and I think he is more then capable of continuing his domination of the Red Sox. In 2012 Tillman pitched in 3 games against the Sox, going 1-0 with a 1.93 era, with an awesome whip of 0.96 and the Sox hit just .200 against him. In 2011 he went 5 scoreless inning, allowing just 5 hits. The only reason Tillman's era is in the mid 2s against the Red Sox was 1 bad outing back in 2010. Beyond that he has dominated the Red Sox and he will be facing a weaker line up in his first meeting of 2013. On the other side of the mound the Red Sox will be giving the nod to former closer Alfredo Aceves. This should be interesting seeing how the guy has only pitched more than 3 innings 1 time since 2009. Aceves isn't exactly a fan favorite at Fenway either, as the Boston faithful booed this guy alot last season when he was awful at home. In 2012 Aceves had a home era of 7.03, to go along with his 1-7 record and 4 blown saves. In his relieve duty he faced the O's a total of 8 times last season, which worked out to be 14 innings, in those 14 innings, Aceves allowed 8 runs on 15 hits, a 0-3 mark and a 5.03 era. If I get beat by a weaker line up, bullpen and a ex closer making his first start since 2009, then so be it, but for + money give me the very live dog in the Orioles.
Tigers/Jays F5 U 4? 1 Unit: I am basing the F5 line being 4 with it being juiced at between -120 and -125. The full game total is set 8 with the juice currently at -120 (5Dimes). Once the actual line is released ill update accordingly. But it would take a major change for me not to fire this bet. That being said, I want no part of the full game total with the bullpens these 2 teams have and the amount of work they have done lately. I do like the first half under with Johnson on the hill against Fister. Both starters struggled in their respective opening starts but I don't see that happening on Thursday. Johnson will be facing the Tigers for the 1st time in his career which of course will give him the advantage the first few times through the rotation. Johnson was one of the only bright sports for an awful Marlins team last year and I think he will give the Jays a quality start in this one. The Tigers will be countering with strike out machine Doug Fister. He loves pitching at home where he went 6-3 with a 3.21 era, and a 1.21 whip last year. Fister really came on strong in the second half of the season last year going 8-4 with a 2.67 era and a 1.04 whip. He made 1 start in 2012 against the Jays and it was a very good one. In that outing he went 8 strong, allowing just 1 run on 7 hits, walking 2 and striking out 9 batters. He should be able to keep a Jays team who is batting just .202 against right handed pitching in check on Thursday. This is also getaway day for both of these teams, so I any line up changes should also help the under.
Angels ML (-127) 1 Unit: In the final game of the 3 game set the Angels will be looking to avoid being swept at home by division rivals the Oakland A's. The Angels have got to be the biggest disappointment so far in the early going this season. This team is stocked piled offensively but the big names haven't played like it and the team has struggled. I do think the skid stops on Thursday's and when it's all said and done they will have Jason Vargas to thank for it. Vargas will be making his home debut for the Angels following the off season trade from the Mariners. His opening start wasn't bad but it wasn't enough to get the job done in Texas. The big reason I like Vargas here is the fact he really enjoys pitching at home and he is a pitcher that really benefits from a pitchers park. Angel stadium isn't quite on the same level compared to Safeco field when it comes to a pitchers park, but it is definitely a tough place to score a lot of runs. I think Vargas will be able to use this to his advantage against an A's team he dominated in 2012. In 6 outings vs them during 2012, Vargas went 2-1 with a 2.18 era, a solid 0.82 whip and he held the A's to a .220 team batting average. The A's Griffin was lights out in his only start against the Angels last season, going 8 scoreless, allowing just 6 hits. Griffin is a good young pitcher but I think his sample size of 1 start in his career against the Angels makes it tougher to figure out if he can continue that success against the Angels. If you asking, why not just play the under then, well this is a situational play more then anything. The last 2 times decided to not play the side I liked and went with the under it ended up costing me both times. My gut tells me Vargas has a strong outing in this one. The last win the Angels got was a game I backed them in Texas, which I felt they needed to have it. This is the same exact spot I think the Angels are in on Thursday.
Best of luck to everyone on Thursday, I will be working so I don't plan on extending the card beyond these 3. As always the goal is 2-1 and turning a profit
I had a good feeling heading into Wednesday's slate that I was gonna be in the green for the season at the conclusion of the night. The Giants, Rays and Nats TT made the hunch a reality. I was a little mad @ myself for talking myself out of the D'Backs RL and going with the under in that game, but those things are gonna happen and you just gotta move on. Let's hope I can keep the ball rolling and not look in the rear view mirror.
Season: 21-19-1 (+1.06 Units)
ML: 8-7
RL: 1-2
Totals: 11-8-1
Grand Salami: 0-2
Props: 1-0
Thursday Plays
Orioles ML (+109) 2 Units: Simply too much value in the underdog O's in this one. I was a big fan of Chris Tillman in 2012 and I think he is more then capable of continuing his domination of the Red Sox. In 2012 Tillman pitched in 3 games against the Sox, going 1-0 with a 1.93 era, with an awesome whip of 0.96 and the Sox hit just .200 against him. In 2011 he went 5 scoreless inning, allowing just 5 hits. The only reason Tillman's era is in the mid 2s against the Red Sox was 1 bad outing back in 2010. Beyond that he has dominated the Red Sox and he will be facing a weaker line up in his first meeting of 2013. On the other side of the mound the Red Sox will be giving the nod to former closer Alfredo Aceves. This should be interesting seeing how the guy has only pitched more than 3 innings 1 time since 2009. Aceves isn't exactly a fan favorite at Fenway either, as the Boston faithful booed this guy alot last season when he was awful at home. In 2012 Aceves had a home era of 7.03, to go along with his 1-7 record and 4 blown saves. In his relieve duty he faced the O's a total of 8 times last season, which worked out to be 14 innings, in those 14 innings, Aceves allowed 8 runs on 15 hits, a 0-3 mark and a 5.03 era. If I get beat by a weaker line up, bullpen and a ex closer making his first start since 2009, then so be it, but for + money give me the very live dog in the Orioles.
Tigers/Jays F5 U 4? 1 Unit: I am basing the F5 line being 4 with it being juiced at between -120 and -125. The full game total is set 8 with the juice currently at -120 (5Dimes). Once the actual line is released ill update accordingly. But it would take a major change for me not to fire this bet. That being said, I want no part of the full game total with the bullpens these 2 teams have and the amount of work they have done lately. I do like the first half under with Johnson on the hill against Fister. Both starters struggled in their respective opening starts but I don't see that happening on Thursday. Johnson will be facing the Tigers for the 1st time in his career which of course will give him the advantage the first few times through the rotation. Johnson was one of the only bright sports for an awful Marlins team last year and I think he will give the Jays a quality start in this one. The Tigers will be countering with strike out machine Doug Fister. He loves pitching at home where he went 6-3 with a 3.21 era, and a 1.21 whip last year. Fister really came on strong in the second half of the season last year going 8-4 with a 2.67 era and a 1.04 whip. He made 1 start in 2012 against the Jays and it was a very good one. In that outing he went 8 strong, allowing just 1 run on 7 hits, walking 2 and striking out 9 batters. He should be able to keep a Jays team who is batting just .202 against right handed pitching in check on Thursday. This is also getaway day for both of these teams, so I any line up changes should also help the under.
Angels ML (-127) 1 Unit: In the final game of the 3 game set the Angels will be looking to avoid being swept at home by division rivals the Oakland A's. The Angels have got to be the biggest disappointment so far in the early going this season. This team is stocked piled offensively but the big names haven't played like it and the team has struggled. I do think the skid stops on Thursday's and when it's all said and done they will have Jason Vargas to thank for it. Vargas will be making his home debut for the Angels following the off season trade from the Mariners. His opening start wasn't bad but it wasn't enough to get the job done in Texas. The big reason I like Vargas here is the fact he really enjoys pitching at home and he is a pitcher that really benefits from a pitchers park. Angel stadium isn't quite on the same level compared to Safeco field when it comes to a pitchers park, but it is definitely a tough place to score a lot of runs. I think Vargas will be able to use this to his advantage against an A's team he dominated in 2012. In 6 outings vs them during 2012, Vargas went 2-1 with a 2.18 era, a solid 0.82 whip and he held the A's to a .220 team batting average. The A's Griffin was lights out in his only start against the Angels last season, going 8 scoreless, allowing just 6 hits. Griffin is a good young pitcher but I think his sample size of 1 start in his career against the Angels makes it tougher to figure out if he can continue that success against the Angels. If you asking, why not just play the under then, well this is a situational play more then anything. The last 2 times decided to not play the side I liked and went with the under it ended up costing me both times. My gut tells me Vargas has a strong outing in this one. The last win the Angels got was a game I backed them in Texas, which I felt they needed to have it. This is the same exact spot I think the Angels are in on Thursday.
Best of luck to everyone on Thursday, I will be working so I don't plan on extending the card beyond these 3. As always the goal is 2-1 and turning a profit
0
Hot Forum Topics
