Wednesday's Plays
Pirates/D'Backs U 9 (+103) 1 Unit
Similar
to the KC Royals game on Tuesday, I really wanna back the D'Backs in
this spot but the ML is way too much juice and I don't trust the Arizona
offense against left handed pitching enough to play the RL. The 2013
season for Arizona offensively looks very similar to how 2012 was, in
that the D'Backs roped right handed pitching but then they couldn't hit a
beach ball to save their lives against lefties. The D'Backs enter
Wednesday's game batting just .118 against lefties (compared to .302 vs
righties). They do have a decent chance to improve upon that # against
Sanchez who hasn't been anywhere close to the same pitcher he once was
with the SF Giants. The sample size in 2013 is small, but I am
comfortable knowing those #s are pretty accurate since this was a major
problem the D'Backs had in 2012. Meanwhile we have the Pirates, who
before Monday's series opener had been in single digits with just 8 runs
scored. The offense came alive a bit scoring 11 runs in the past 2
games, both of which resulted in wins. Only problem for the anemic
offense that is the Pirates, is the fact both of those came against
right handers. The Pirates are batting .171 against righties, and are
batting a eye opening .081 against lefties. Of course albeit a small
sample size. On Wednesday they won't be facing some average left handed
pitcher either, they will be facing an above average southpaw in Wade
Miley. The young lefty got his 2013 campaign started with a dominating
performance against a good offense in Milwaukee. In that game Miley went
6 innings, allowing just 1 run on 5 hits, walking 1, and striking out 8
batters. Miley will be facing the Pirates for the 3rd time in his
career and he has fared very well thus far. In the 2 outings Miley is
1-1 with a 1.64 era, 1.18 whip, 2 walks and 5 Ks. Miley has also enjoyed
pitching in day games so far in his young career. In 7 day starts Miley
is 6-0 with a 1.64 era, 0.98 and teams are hitting just .185 against
him. He should have a great chance to continue his success against a
dreadful Pirates offense. Now focusing on Sanchez, who is the only fear I
have with this under play. As many people know, I am a very big Giants
fan, so I have seen Sanchez pitch alot. It's literally mind boggling to
me that fact he has completely fallen off the map. This guy has great
stuff, but his command just isn't their and he lets his anger and temper
get in the way of his ability to pitch. He is capable of throwing gems,
but he is his own worst enemy. He will be making his 18th career start
against the D'Backs, and is 7-7 with a 4.88 era, 1.58 whip and the
D'Backs are hitting .255 against him. Obviously those aren't great #s by
any means. I did dig into some individual #s though, and I did find it
promising that their is only 1 Arizona player vs Sanchez that stand out.
Miguel Montero is batting around .400 in 16 plate appearances, but
beyond that their isn't much experience and/or success. Like I mentioned
before, I do like the D'Backs in this spot, but their is no way I am
laying -160+ juice on them, and I like the under a little bit more then
the RL due to the D'Backs recent struggles in the past few seasons
against left handed pitching.
Giants ML (-135) 1 Unit
In
the series finale between the Giants and Rockies, we will be seeing
Barry Zito taking the hill against Jeff Francis. Zito kicked off his
2013 season with an impressive debut against the team he helped
eliminate in 2012, the St.Louis Cardinals. In the outing Zito went 7
scoreless, allowing just 3 hits, walking 3 and striking out 4. He will
look to build off that start against a team he has done very well
against in his career. In 18 career starts against the Rockies, Zito is
7-2 with a 2.6 era, 1.13 whip and the Rockies are hitting just .213
against him. In 2012 Zito pitched 3 games against them going 2-0, with a
2.70 era, 1.20 era and a batting average against of .269. A large part
of Zito's success against the Rockies is the fact he has been able to
shut down the big offensive weapons the Rockies have in their line up.
Let's start with the unbelievable Carlos Gonzales, he is 8-27 for a .296
average, just 1 HR, and 2 XBH, anytime you can keep Cargo below .300
you are doing something right. More impressively was the fact in 2012,
Cargo went 0-8 against Zito. Next up Troy Tuluwitzki, he is 6-41 for a
.146 batting average, just 1 hr, and 8 strikeouts. He is 1-12 in his
last 13 plate appearances, with 0 XBHs. Dexter Fowler is 5-23 for a .235
average, just 2 XBS, and 5 strikeouts. Zito should have a ton of
confidence heading into this start not only for his recent overall
success but his success against the Rockies. On the other side of the
hill the Rockies will be sending Jeff Francis. Let's not make his 2013
opening start more then it really was. Sure, Francis did have a good
performance (6 innings, 1 run, 5 hits, 1 walk, 5 Ks), but that came
against a Padres team who had been ice ice cold at the plate. He will
have a much tougher task doing against the Giants who even despite
struggles from Posey, have started to put some runs on the board in the
past couple games. In his career Francis has struggled against the
Giants, hell he has struggled against everyone because he simply isn't a
good pitcher. In 19 starts against the Giants, Francis is 7-9 with a
5.38 era, a whip of 1.40 and a .288 batting average against. In 2012 he
was 0-3 with a era of 10.03, a whip of 2.14 and a batting average
against of .400, yes you read that correctly .400 team average haha.
Francis doesn't like pitching in the daytime either, in 2012 in 5 day
starts, Francis was rocking an 8.14 era. The Giants big bats have had
success against him as well. Posey is 5-8 for a .625 average (he is also
expected to be in the line up Wednesday after resting on Tuesday) and
Pando is 4-9 for a .444 average with 3 of those hits being XBH. I try
and throw my biased opinions on the Giants out the window when it comes
to betting, and I don't bet on my team too often, usually the juice is
too high for me to do so. But on Wednesday a good opportunity presents
itself and the juice isn't too bad so I am gonna back my boys and
hopefully it plays out accordingly.
. Good luck today, i'll be chasing that Dback RL.
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