Posted:
#1
Sunday 3-2: Got the positive result I was looking for to cap off the week. The Cardinals and Tigers handled business in the morning games. Meanwhile my prop under 24.5 in the Giants/Braves game became a sweat in the 9th but it ended up holding on. The 2 losses came on the Dodgers RL and a small dumb bet on no score in the 1st inning in the SF/ATL game. I took the beginning of last week off and I felt like I was starting to heat up as the week went on... here's to hoping to that rolls into this week.
77-58 Last 135: (57.0%)
Season: 175-166-4
ML:95-88
RL: 30-19
Totals: 35-45-3
Prop: 14-15-1
Monday Bases
Royals (+105): This is mainly a pure fade of Dice K returning from the DL and making his first start since July 2nd. On the year Dice K is 1-3 with a 6.65 era in five starts. In his 5 starts this season he has only lasted a combined 22 innings and has only pitched past 5 innings just 1 time. Even dating back a little further into his 2011 starts, the results were pretty similar. In his last 4 outings of 2012 he lasted a total of 15 innings and once again only made it past the 5th inning 1 time. So beyond a situational fade of Dice K coming back from the DL, I like fading a guy that hasn't pitched past the 5th in 7 of his last 9 outings. In his last outing before being placed on the DL, Dice K was lit up by the Oakland A's. He surrendered 5 runs on 4 hits and 2 homers and was pulled after 1 inning of work. Luke Hochevar will be taking the hill for the Royals and will be looking to follow up his best start of the year last week against the Rays. In that start Hochevar went 8 scoreless innings, allowing just 1 hit, while striking out 10 batters. He also did that against a Rays team that was very hot at the plate heading into that game. That's definitely a confidence building start for a pitcher. In his last 3 outings Luke's 4.43 era is right on par with his seasonal era, However his WHIP of 0.98 has been good. Luke's make or break outing has a lot to do with the long ball. If he is able to limit the homers, he is very capable of having strong outings. Looking at his career #s against Boston, it could scare lots of people away. I am fully aware of those #s, but I truly don't see a whole lot of value in them. Luke will be facing a much much different Red Sox team this time around. Only 2 players in the Red Sox line up (Pedroia and Elsbury) have had success against Hochevar. David Ortiz of course is out and many of the Red Sox offensive weapons are no longer here. This will be as good of a chance as any for Luke to have a strong outing at Fenway. He should also have a much better chance in today's game at limiting the HR's with those power options being gone. Cody Ross will probably pose as the biggest power threat he will face today. It's hard for me to say the new Sox line up is that big of advantage over KCs. Sure they definitely have the edge, but not by much. I think the pitching mismatch in this game with Hochevar vs Dice K is substantial. DL return or not, they're is a pretty good chance Dice K won't be in this game very long. Meanwhile the Royals will have the advantage in bullpen play. I think they're are enough positive possibilities and outcomes that could go the Royals way that it's worth a shot on the small dog. Trust me, if the Royals lose this game, I won't be whaling my arms in the air wondering what the hell happened. If you back a team that is below .500 and they play that way, you can't be mad. I just feel the Royals get the job done. No work for me today, so I gotta have some action on the am game
gonna be back later on with some afternoon plays... locked n loaded in the am... where's my coffee!!!
77-58 Last 135: (57.0%)
Season: 175-166-4
ML:95-88
RL: 30-19
Totals: 35-45-3
Prop: 14-15-1
Monday Bases
Royals (+105): This is mainly a pure fade of Dice K returning from the DL and making his first start since July 2nd. On the year Dice K is 1-3 with a 6.65 era in five starts. In his 5 starts this season he has only lasted a combined 22 innings and has only pitched past 5 innings just 1 time. Even dating back a little further into his 2011 starts, the results were pretty similar. In his last 4 outings of 2012 he lasted a total of 15 innings and once again only made it past the 5th inning 1 time. So beyond a situational fade of Dice K coming back from the DL, I like fading a guy that hasn't pitched past the 5th in 7 of his last 9 outings. In his last outing before being placed on the DL, Dice K was lit up by the Oakland A's. He surrendered 5 runs on 4 hits and 2 homers and was pulled after 1 inning of work. Luke Hochevar will be taking the hill for the Royals and will be looking to follow up his best start of the year last week against the Rays. In that start Hochevar went 8 scoreless innings, allowing just 1 hit, while striking out 10 batters. He also did that against a Rays team that was very hot at the plate heading into that game. That's definitely a confidence building start for a pitcher. In his last 3 outings Luke's 4.43 era is right on par with his seasonal era, However his WHIP of 0.98 has been good. Luke's make or break outing has a lot to do with the long ball. If he is able to limit the homers, he is very capable of having strong outings. Looking at his career #s against Boston, it could scare lots of people away. I am fully aware of those #s, but I truly don't see a whole lot of value in them. Luke will be facing a much much different Red Sox team this time around. Only 2 players in the Red Sox line up (Pedroia and Elsbury) have had success against Hochevar. David Ortiz of course is out and many of the Red Sox offensive weapons are no longer here. This will be as good of a chance as any for Luke to have a strong outing at Fenway. He should also have a much better chance in today's game at limiting the HR's with those power options being gone. Cody Ross will probably pose as the biggest power threat he will face today. It's hard for me to say the new Sox line up is that big of advantage over KCs. Sure they definitely have the edge, but not by much. I think the pitching mismatch in this game with Hochevar vs Dice K is substantial. DL return or not, they're is a pretty good chance Dice K won't be in this game very long. Meanwhile the Royals will have the advantage in bullpen play. I think they're are enough positive possibilities and outcomes that could go the Royals way that it's worth a shot on the small dog. Trust me, if the Royals lose this game, I won't be whaling my arms in the air wondering what the hell happened. If you back a team that is below .500 and they play that way, you can't be mad. I just feel the Royals get the job done. No work for me today, so I gotta have some action on the am game
gonna be back later on with some afternoon plays... locked n loaded in the am... where's my coffee!!!
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