So far on this short MLB Season, In 171 games out of 189 played, there has been a scoreless inning within the first 3 innings. This makes pretty profitable for a 1x - 2x - 4x progression. If you are selective in your choices and don't get greedy this can be a very profitable play while live betting on the Under 0.5 each inning until it hits. But not going past the third Inning. If there is no scoreless inning by the 4th then we will consider it a loss.
Early lines I like for Tuesday 4/19/2016 are:
Mets/Phillies
Nats/Marlins
Tigers/Royals
Cubs/Cards
I will confirm when it gets much closer to game time.
Good luck and hope everyone has fun following along.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
So far on this short MLB Season, In 171 games out of 189 played, there has been a scoreless inning within the first 3 innings. This makes pretty profitable for a 1x - 2x - 4x progression. If you are selective in your choices and don't get greedy this can be a very profitable play while live betting on the Under 0.5 each inning until it hits. But not going past the third Inning. If there is no scoreless inning by the 4th then we will consider it a loss.
Early lines I like for Tuesday 4/19/2016 are:
Mets/Phillies
Nats/Marlins
Tigers/Royals
Cubs/Cards
I will confirm when it gets much closer to game time.
Good luck and hope everyone has fun following along.
All are plays to win 2.5 units each. Once the play cashes then we quit. and remember you only play no runs until the end of the 3rd. If its a run scored each inning and its the 4th we count it as a loss.
GL
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Mets/Phillies
Nats/Marlins
Tigers/Royals
Cubs/Cards
All are plays to win 2.5 units each. Once the play cashes then we quit. and remember you only play no runs until the end of the 3rd. If its a run scored each inning and its the 4th we count it as a loss.
Today the MLB went 14-1 for teams having a scoreless inning in the first 3 innings of play. For a Daily 93.33% success rate. and bringing our season total to 185/204 or 90.69% seasonal win rate.
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https://prntscr.com/augb5l
Today the MLB went 14-1 for teams having a scoreless inning in the first 3 innings of play. For a Daily 93.33% success rate. and bringing our season total to 185/204 or 90.69% seasonal win rate.
The second inning can usually run up more to the -140 line but that depends on who batted in the first inning. On National league games the second inning can have some more juice since the pitcher bats as well.
BOL to you as well
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The second inning can usually run up more to the -140 line but that depends on who batted in the first inning. On National league games the second inning can have some more juice since the pitcher bats as well.
Yes, hypothetically lets say I wager to win 2.5 units for no run in the first inning at odds of -120. That would result in laying 3 units. one of the teams scores in the first inning causing our bet to lose. Bummer. Now we lay units to still win the 2.5 and make up for our loss. so if the odds were still at -120 we would lay 6.6 units to win 5.5. if that cashes we still have +2.5 units profit. Now if it fails then we are in the hole 9.6 units. so you can either risk units to break even if no run scores in the third which in our scenario would be to lay 11.52 units to win our 9.6 back if the odds stayed at -120. Or to try and still walk away with positive 2.5 units which would mean to lay 14.52 units to win 12.1 units if the odds were -120 throughout the scenario. If that fails we chalk it up as a loss of either 21.12 (If you played to break even in the third inning) or loss of 24.12 units if you played to win the 2.5 units still in the third inning. I remind you that there have only be 19 games with a run scored in the first 3 innings so far this season out of 204 games played. That is 9.31%
Quote Originally Posted by juveunits:
Horrible are you making money if you don't get it until the third inning?
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Yes, hypothetically lets say I wager to win 2.5 units for no run in the first inning at odds of -120. That would result in laying 3 units. one of the teams scores in the first inning causing our bet to lose. Bummer. Now we lay units to still win the 2.5 and make up for our loss. so if the odds were still at -120 we would lay 6.6 units to win 5.5. if that cashes we still have +2.5 units profit. Now if it fails then we are in the hole 9.6 units. so you can either risk units to break even if no run scores in the third which in our scenario would be to lay 11.52 units to win our 9.6 back if the odds stayed at -120. Or to try and still walk away with positive 2.5 units which would mean to lay 14.52 units to win 12.1 units if the odds were -120 throughout the scenario. If that fails we chalk it up as a loss of either 21.12 (If you played to break even in the third inning) or loss of 24.12 units if you played to win the 2.5 units still in the third inning. I remind you that there have only be 19 games with a run scored in the first 3 innings so far this season out of 204 games played. That is 9.31%
Quote Originally Posted by juveunits:
Horrible are you making money if you don't get it until the third inning?
Yes, hypothetically lets say I wager to win 2.5 units for no run in the first inning at odds of -120. That would result in laying 3 units. one of the teams scores in the first inning causing our bet to lose. Bummer. Now we lay units to still win the 2.5 and make up for our loss. so if the odds were still at -120 we would lay 6.6 units to win 5.5. if that cashes we still have +2.5 units profit. Now if it fails then we are in the hole 9.6 units. so you can either risk units to break even if no run scores in the third which in our scenario would be to lay 11.52 units to win our 9.6 back if the odds stayed at -120. Or to try and still walk away with positive 2.5 units which would mean to lay 14.52 units to win 12.1 units if the odds were -120 throughout the scenario. If that fails we chalk it up as a loss of either 21.12 (If you played to break even in the third inning) or loss of 24.12 units if you played to win the 2.5 units still in the third inning. Iremind you that there have only be 19 games with a run scored in the first 3 innings so far this season out of 204 games played. That is 9.31%
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Yes, hypothetically lets say I wager to win 2.5 units for no run in the first inning at odds of -120. That would result in laying 3 units. one of the teams scores in the first inning causing our bet to lose. Bummer. Now we lay units to still win the 2.5 and make up for our loss. so if the odds were still at -120 we would lay 6.6 units to win 5.5. if that cashes we still have +2.5 units profit. Now if it fails then we are in the hole 9.6 units. so you can either risk units to break even if no run scores in the third which in our scenario would be to lay 11.52 units to win our 9.6 back if the odds stayed at -120. Or to try and still walk away with positive 2.5 units which would mean to lay 14.52 units to win 12.1 units if the odds were -120 throughout the scenario. If that fails we chalk it up as a loss of either 21.12 (If you played to break even in the third inning) or loss of 24.12 units if you played to win the 2.5 units still in the third inning. Iremind you that there have only be 19 games with a run scored in the first 3 innings so far this season out of 204 games played. That is 9.31%
thanks. i like the idea, but lets see if its profitiable...
avg juice=-130 betting to win 1 unit
loss senario: 1.3...3...7.9=12.2 units lost in a losing chase
win scenaro=1 unit
even at 90% sucess youre losing money.
10 losses*12.2= 122
90wins *1=90
these are rough estimates, correct me if im wrong. I think where you could find value here is to isolate teams that have issues scoring in the 1st 3 innings and pitchers that excel in this time..especially ones that are not aces, as the juice will be even higher for them.
dont mean to rain on parades, just to inform. i like the idea as i said before, but doing the math it doesnt seem to work without more digging.
not trying to dissuade you in any way, only to inform. lord knows i like most on here have created more than one system to guide me, and all have failed in my case
BOL
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thanks. i like the idea, but lets see if its profitiable...
avg juice=-130 betting to win 1 unit
loss senario: 1.3...3...7.9=12.2 units lost in a losing chase
win scenaro=1 unit
even at 90% sucess youre losing money.
10 losses*12.2= 122
90wins *1=90
these are rough estimates, correct me if im wrong. I think where you could find value here is to isolate teams that have issues scoring in the 1st 3 innings and pitchers that excel in this time..especially ones that are not aces, as the juice will be even higher for them.
dont mean to rain on parades, just to inform. i like the idea as i said before, but doing the math it doesnt seem to work without more digging.
not trying to dissuade you in any way, only to inform. lord knows i like most on here have created more than one system to guide me, and all have failed in my case
Also, I'm not saying this is a guaranteed system. This is just something I like to play that I think others might like and enjoy. You can wager less units if you're more comfortable with that. It's not fool proof nor guaranteed. I just like that I'm getting odds with implied probability of 52-58% for the seasonal average of 90% hits. Feel free to modify this, or paper bet. etc Whatever you guys are comfortable with. And for games I like to look at pitching matchups and somewhat weak offenses. The games o/u 7.5 or below can usually be a good indication. also as we progress throughout the season and ERA's start to level out we can see the elite pitchers rise to the top. Current teams I try to avoid, Kc (Plays a lot of small ball, sac bunts, stolen bases, etc.) WSH + LAA (Big power lineups, multiple guys capable of putting a game out of reach early.)
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Also, I'm not saying this is a guaranteed system. This is just something I like to play that I think others might like and enjoy. You can wager less units if you're more comfortable with that. It's not fool proof nor guaranteed. I just like that I'm getting odds with implied probability of 52-58% for the seasonal average of 90% hits. Feel free to modify this, or paper bet. etc Whatever you guys are comfortable with. And for games I like to look at pitching matchups and somewhat weak offenses. The games o/u 7.5 or below can usually be a good indication. also as we progress throughout the season and ERA's start to level out we can see the elite pitchers rise to the top. Current teams I try to avoid, Kc (Plays a lot of small ball, sac bunts, stolen bases, etc.) WSH + LAA (Big power lineups, multiple guys capable of putting a game out of reach early.)
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