Posted:
#1
+ Juice record
9-8
+5.92 units
SEA/SD under 7 +100
SEA/SD under 3.5 1st 5 +100
SEA TT under 3.5 +105
Man I see the whole forum on Seattle and I'm looking at the numbers and I just don't know. Everyone seems to be aware of how bad Stults is. That's good. But is everyone aware of how bad the Mariners offense is? Let's have a look at their last 3 games against a lefty starter. They faced Nuno at home, Saunders at home, and Bedard on the road. Here's the SIERA for each pitcher including Stults.
Stults 4.61
Nuno 4.26
Saunders 4.48
Bedard 4.31
SIERA is just a pitching metric that doesn't paint a complete picture but for our purposes, let's just say that all the pitchers I just listed suck balls in terms of sabermetrics. Now the game results for the Mariners versus those pitchers.
@ home vs. Nuno loss 3-2
@ home vs. Saunders loss 4-3
@ TB vs. Bedard loss 4-0
@ home vs. Stults ?
I will grant you that Stults is worse than all 3 of the pitchers listed above, but not that much worse.
Dig a little deeper and look at the splits for Stults. Yes lefty batters hit .313 off him this season but righty batters hit him much harder. 11 of his 13 HRs given up were to righty bats. ALL of his walks!!! this season were to righty hitters. That's right...his K:BB ratio vs. lefty hitters is 7:0 in 2014.
The two BEST BATS (Cano and Seager) in the Mariners lineup are lefty. So that means the best hitters for Seattle have a low chance of hitting a HR and a low chance of getting walked.
In my opinion the under is the play today. In the Mariners last 12 games against a lefty starter the under 7 is 9-2-1. The under 7 is 4-0-1 in their last 5 vs. a lefty starter.
Seattle has scored 3 runs or less in 5 straight games against a left handed starter.
To me this looks like a 3-2 game either way. It's a game Seattle can lose but I'm not putting money on SD given how bad that offense is. I think people expecting a Mariner blowout will be disappointed.
BOL
9-8
+5.92 units
SEA/SD under 7 +100
SEA/SD under 3.5 1st 5 +100
SEA TT under 3.5 +105
Man I see the whole forum on Seattle and I'm looking at the numbers and I just don't know. Everyone seems to be aware of how bad Stults is. That's good. But is everyone aware of how bad the Mariners offense is? Let's have a look at their last 3 games against a lefty starter. They faced Nuno at home, Saunders at home, and Bedard on the road. Here's the SIERA for each pitcher including Stults.
Stults 4.61
Nuno 4.26
Saunders 4.48
Bedard 4.31
SIERA is just a pitching metric that doesn't paint a complete picture but for our purposes, let's just say that all the pitchers I just listed suck balls in terms of sabermetrics. Now the game results for the Mariners versus those pitchers.
@ home vs. Nuno loss 3-2
@ home vs. Saunders loss 4-3
@ TB vs. Bedard loss 4-0
@ home vs. Stults ?
I will grant you that Stults is worse than all 3 of the pitchers listed above, but not that much worse.
Dig a little deeper and look at the splits for Stults. Yes lefty batters hit .313 off him this season but righty batters hit him much harder. 11 of his 13 HRs given up were to righty bats. ALL of his walks!!! this season were to righty hitters. That's right...his K:BB ratio vs. lefty hitters is 7:0 in 2014.
The two BEST BATS (Cano and Seager) in the Mariners lineup are lefty. So that means the best hitters for Seattle have a low chance of hitting a HR and a low chance of getting walked.
In my opinion the under is the play today. In the Mariners last 12 games against a lefty starter the under 7 is 9-2-1. The under 7 is 4-0-1 in their last 5 vs. a lefty starter.
Seattle has scored 3 runs or less in 5 straight games against a left handed starter.
To me this looks like a 3-2 game either way. It's a game Seattle can lose but I'm not putting money on SD given how bad that offense is. I think people expecting a Mariner blowout will be disappointed.
BOL
0
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