Posted:
#1
In my personal opinion I would never take a road team at -165. Then again most people see value because chances are if you are getting a road team at -165 they are obviously far and away the better team. Why else would they have so much juice away from home? And then I see that the Toronto Blue Jays are -165 at New York. What? Two teams in a race to be division champs. The two best offenses in baseball. And you're giving the road team a -165 line? Yeah, yeah , yeahh, David Price this, David Price that. I don't care. This Yankees team is 40-29 at home and they're facing a Toronto team who is 32-35 away from home. The current Yankees roster (with Teixeira out) has a combined .274 BA against Price in 248 at-bats, so it's not like he's unhittable. Quite a few Yankees have had success in their career against Price including Chase Headley (.500 in 14 ABs), Brian McCann (.435 in 23 ABs), and Jacoby Ellsbury (.333 in 57 ABs). And how about this Yankees lineup this year against lefties. 1st in the MLB in runs scored, 4th in OBP, 4th in Slugging %, and 3rd in OPS. To give you an idea of the clip that the Yankees have been scoring against lefties, they have put up 220 runs this year on left handers and the team closest to them is the Texas Rangers with 212.. and the Yankees have 212 less at-bats vs. lefties than they do. And we can't forget about the young stud Severino for the Yankees who has looked very impressive so far in his first year. He currently holds a 2.04 ERA thru his first 6 starts in the MLB. He has made half of those starts at Yankee Stadium where he has a 1.56 ERA, only giving up a total of 3 earned runs in 17.1 innings. He faced the Blue Jays once this year already at the Rogers Centre. Severino gave up 3 runs in 6 innings of work while striking out 9, which I would consider a solid start in that stadium where the Jays score 5.6 runs per game. He was able to blank them for two innings, gave up all 3 runs in the third due most in part to a home run, and then settled down to hold them scoreless for 3 more innings. They hit .238 off of him in 21 ABs, its not like they had too much success. Really I've been following this kid and I love what I've seen from him. And he's pitching at home where he's looked good so far, on a team who plays very well at home, who happens to be in contention for 1st in their division. I'm gonna take the Yanks +145 at home regardless of who's on the mound opposite them. People love them some David Price and I've seen many, many people all over the Jays today because he's on the mound but I think its a sucker play with this much juice. I think the obvious value play is the Yankees tonight.
0
David Price has failed all too often this year when he has been heavily favored.
Hot Forum Topics
