Posted:
#1
YTD: 0-0-0
Disclaimer: I have bet on MLB this season, and I am setting my YTD record at 0-0-0 only because I am going to being posting a daily thread and it simplifies everything. If you are worried that I'm trying to cover up a history of losing, feel free to check my post history. I'm coming off a recent challenge where I doubled a $5,000 bankroll in only five days.
Philosophy: I believe that less is more. On some days I will make a number of plays, but I will almost never make more than one play on a single game. There can be value in doing that, but I would argue that in the long term it would be better to just bet a little more on whichever bet you prefer (if you are a good handicapper). I also don't mind laying some juice. Some posters here seem to be incredibly afraid of it, but I think it's a rash decision to avoid juice even where it is justified. In terms of bet sizing, I can be a little bit erratic. There is an argument to be made for always using the same bet size, but that's just not my style.
Current Card
8:10 PM ET Chicago White Sox RL (-125), risking $1,000 to win $800.
First of all, Sale is rock solid, that's just a fact. Further, the White Sox are pretty strong at home and the Twins struggle on the road. Obviously, the starter for the Twins having a 7.88 ERA is a huge plus, but it becomes massively important when you realize that he went up against the White Sox on July 26th (his only MLB start) and gave up 7 runs in 5 innings. Better yet, that 7-0 win for the White Sox came with Sale at the helm.
One of my favorite betting opportunities is to take a pitcher who beat the opposing pitcher very recently. I suppose this is obvious but I think there is not only a statistical value, but also a very clear psychological one. There is no way that Darnell is going to come into the game tomorrow with his head in the right place. The fact that he knows his team is by far the weaker offensively should have him somewhat of a basket case. After putting on two terrible performances in his first two chances to pitch in MLB, I expect Darnell to be afraid to throw anywhere near the middle of the strike-zone tomorrow, and that should lead to many walks and big time scoring for the White Sox.
10:10 PM ET Braves/Padres O7.0 (-116.28), risking $500 to win $435.
I wrote a long explanation for this pick but my laptop decided to malfunction, so I will keep it short and sweet. While neither team brings in runs at an alarming rate, both of these pitchers give whatever team they face the opportunity to score a ton of runs. Stults is one of the worst pitchers in the game, and the Braves love to feast on lefties. Minor is overall a good pitcher but he looks completely lost lately, and will offer up some walks if the Padres will only take them. He has really struggled with his command.
Another key fact is that this pitching match was played on July 26th and ended with 11 runs, a full 4 runs over this total. Additionally, in Minor's last 9 starts, the total number of runs scored has been at or over the set total for this game. Basically, either of these pitchers could give up 8 runs alone on a bad day, and hopefully they will work together to help the over land tomorrow. I'm only betting a medium amount on the game because both teams have solid bullpens.
It's late, but I will almost certainly put on a couple more plays tomorrow. Talk it up, I value the opinions of people who take the time to analyze games and post here.
Good luck! 
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