TB and Why Gm 5

The Rays came thru and they put up some runs, just a beautiful game.   Let's look at some numbers:

155 LA  Kershaw    -3

      TB  Glasnow    -3  

The line opened up as a 155 fav for LA, currently around 162.   I give Kershaw a rating of -3 and Glasnow a rating of -3 as well.   We have had a a couple of playoff games with pitchers having these ratings - one was with these two last Tuesday.  We know the result was LA and the over.   In addition, we have had regular season games with these situations and an opening line of 155.  

One may suspect if these two matched up before - why not the same result - the difference between Tuesday and tonite - the opening line.   Tuesday it opened at 160 tonight it's 155 - based on how I track things it may seem small but the opening line i find is a key component of how I handicap games. Every number in that line means something.    My data says the home team (bottom team)  - usually pulls it out.  Since we are dealing a with neutral field and some uknowns like have BOTH teams moved on from lastnight or are they still feeling the affects (hard to quantify), i'm taking TB +1.5 - 118 it's not a bad price eventhough i hate laying juice.  Not sure about the Over Under.    My plays:

1. TB +1.5 -118

2. small Parlay TB +152/Sea -3.5 Football   

Good luck all

Excellent write up. Same thoughts here. TB just needs to have a great pitching session with all their pitchers. BOL to you!

Max, Melo, Gochu - thanks and back at ya

112 pitches last game. over 5 ERA on 4 days  somehpw 

Very unlikely 112 pitches last game over 5 era on 4 days rest i think he gets shelled

Hi it's me again...surprised you don't understand what lines mean and line movement..you should talk to managers at any Vegas Sports Book or wherever you live and they most likely will not deny they look to set lines where they protect their 10% juice..like your example about craps, they look for that edge, they do not ever try to trap anyone..if they went -135 tonight, they'd get way too much Dodger money, -175, too much Rays from the sharper betters..

It moves in reaction to the money flow not the amount of bets..

Surprised you completely ignore hitting too and these days what you do look at Starting pitchers, sometimes they only go a few innings..

I think this series is long enough like the Dodgers-Braves where the insanity of the Braves young pitchers was finally exposed..Wright, their game 4 starter was a complete joke where he threw 4 mph over his highest speed, he didn't pitch all season on their team..last night a player not even on their ALCS roster with 2 AB's all month in the bottom of the 9th in the WS hits a good closer..ok sure you'll see that happen again...

The Astros had so much less pitching than the Dodgers, only 5 hitters and they almost beat TB and if you take out the unbelievable hot streak of Arozerena who the league will figure out how to pitch to, they are much weaker-his presence alone affected the last inning..

Tuck - i just go by numbers - you could be right.

Hoya - Hi Back.  i get lines and line movement - what'i'm saying is - know one in here knows the exact reason or what the weights are that they use in vegas to come up with the OPENING line i.e. 155, 175, 200, 131, 119 - we speculate but know one knows exactly what those weights are except the folks that put them together.   I think it's the best kept secret.     I read a book by Art Manteris - Superbookie manager of a sportsbook a long while ago - in his book he says that the opening line on a a baseball game - 95% is based on the starting pitcher - one year he dropped that to 90% and they got killed.   That to me means - look at starting pitching forget hitters.  I think the starters set the tone and the team follows.   I use to look up all sorts of things - Batting avg, Lvs right, day of the week, etc.    i figure a lot of that stuff is already in the opening line  or it doesn't matter as much as I may think it does and thus don't look at it anymore.   Once again it's simply my belief - not saying what you do is right or wrong.   

I've had situations where i wish i would have done the f5 - where it might have worked out but then again i've had situations where they get it on the back and would have screwed my self if i did f/5.

Nice discussion - enjoy the game.

well if both teams are mighty n high then wouldn't the line be -110?

I see any lines over -150 in the regular season and I see how much Vegas is protecting a team that is obviously the more dominate teams.

Same goes with any other sports on the ml. 

The line is saying that lad got the advantage somewhere.   Kershaw is good for -200

Lol -200?  I must be smoking but that line is usually for an ace pitcher vs a gas can.  

but furthering my point in the better approach in offense by the Dodgers, the 2 bases taken by Seager especially 3rd created the 2nd run..or he doesn't score...working pitch counts, you don't see anyone doing this. The Rays have very few runs created...I personally witnessed one of the best teams in this the 2002 Angels..who moved runners all the time and I saw a tremendous comeback in Game 6 of that WS down 5-1 to Barry and Dusty and Spiezo just kept fouling off pitches and finally drilled a 3 Run homer and all 60,000 of us knew the Giants had no chance in game 7...

The Dodgers do more of this than the Rays..hopefully they get rewarded

I wish you well

Hoya - they must have listened to ya .... as they are trying to manufacturing runs.

nfl- that’s my point - you believe the favorite has SOME advantage ..... and we can all speculate what that might be .... but we don’t know for certain what that number really represents. 

ny plays today?