I love a good situational bet, so I'm looking ahead to Tuesday when the Phillies and Mets play - their first games back from London. Generally speaking I'm looking for reasons to fade the Phillies or Cubs based on travel, out of routine and less focus on baseball overall in the past week. If history is any indication on how they'll fare, I will be fading the Phillies specially and ignoring the Mets series (reasoning below).
In 2023, the Cubs, who won the first game and then were up 4-0 in the 2nd game and lost, were then swept 0-3 upon returning to home soil. This plays into a similar situation with the Phillies who won the first game this year in London and had an improbable loss in game 2. Both the Cubs and Phillies had won their last game prior to the London series as well. The Phillies will be facing the Boston Red Sox in a 3-ame series which should set up for a home dog in game 1 with Zack Wheeler vs Kutter Crawford and additionally the Red Sox may be without Devers who didn't play last game, providing us with an even better price. Whether Devers plays or not, we'll be getting a great price on Boston ml vs a Phillies team who have been exceptional as of late, but fall into this London return from home trap, but important to note that Boston won their last game without Devers so they know this new lineup can succeed already. And just like Boston who won their last game, so did the 2023 Phillies prior to playing the Cubs upon their return. Also it's likely the Phillies are due for a little regression overall and if they are ever in a position to have a let down game/series on the year, this could be it. I'll be on Boston ml and rl in game 1 and likely the same each game, but also I'll be betting for them to win the series with Pivetta going Wednesday who's been sharp and Tanner Houck on Thursday who's sporting a 1.91 ERA and 0.92 whip including 4 ER total in last 4 starts. Kutter is definitely the worst of the 3 for the series, but again the price we'll get vs Wheeler in this situation will be too good to pass up.
I'm ignoring the Mets series because the 2023 London games team (Cardinals) who won the 2nd game came home and won game 1 of their series despite losing the series itself 1-2. But also the Mets are playing the Marlins so much less talent to rely on vs Red Sox, and also the Marlins are on the road.
Let me know your thoughts.
GL
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