Scott Feldman's been brilliant in his last three starts, all of them on the road, allowing just one lonely earned run in 19.1 innings. That along with his glittering 11-1 road record makes him a god today in the eyes of many bettors. But is he really as good as those bettors believe? I don't think he is.
Let's look at all of his road starts this season:
4/25 at Baltimore - 5IP, 4H, 1 ER as the Rangers won, 6-5
5/6 at Oakland - 6IP, 4H, 2ER as the Rangers won, 3-2
5/23 at Houston - 6.2IP, 5H, 3ER as the Rangers won, 6-3
6/3 at the Yankees - 6.1IP, 5H, 2ER as the Rangers won, 4-2
6/19 at San Fran - 6IP, 8H, 5ER as the Rangers lost, 4-6
6/25 at Arizona - 6IP, 4H, 3ER as the Rangers won, 9-8
7/10 at Seattle - 6.2IP, 7H, 2ER as the Rangers won, 6-4
7/24 at Kansas City - 8IP, 4H, 0ER as the Rangers won, 2-0
8/7 at the Angels - 6IP, 8H, 4ER as the Rangers won, 11-6
8/13 at Cleveland - 6IP, 7H, 1ER as theRangers won, 4-1
8/23 at Tampa Bay - 7IP, 4H, 0ER as the Rangers won, 4-0
8/29 at Minnesota - 5.2IP, 4H, 0ER as the Rangers won, 3-0
9/4 at Baltimore - 6.2IP, 4H, 1ER as the Rangers won, 5-1
Nothing shabby about any of that but does it really measure up to the awesomeness of an 11-1 road record? Basically Feldman on the road in 2009 has been a reliable 6 inning pitcher who gets plenty of run support when he needs it and less when he doesn't. In other words, he's been both lucky and good. Bettors are gazing admiringly in his general direction as if he's some kind of unstoppable force on the road, but he isn't. He's a guy who's been delivering his 6 innings of work, giving up his 3 earned runs or less, all the while watching his teammates get him enough runs to win. Good stuff, but this guy is far from a candidate for the Cy Young Award.
Meanwhile, Feldman's opponent today, Fausto Carmona, isn't highly regarded by anyone outside his own family, yet in his five home starts since being recalled from Triple A at the end of July, he's put up numbers that mirror the ones Feldman's been putting up on the road. Check it out:
7/31 vs. Detroit - 5IP, 4H, 2ER as the Indians won, 6-5
8/6 vs. Minnesota - 6IP, 6H, 1ER as the Indians won, 2-1
8/12 vs. Texas - 6IP, 5H, 2ER as the Indians lost, 5-0
8/18 vs. the Angels - 5IP, 10H, 3ER as the Indians lost, 4-5
8/23 vs. Seattle - 7IP, 5H, 1ER as the Indians won, 6-1
Very respectable efforts, but they've been forgotten by most because Carmona's last two starts have been on the road and both of them were Cleveland losses (including a very bad outing against the lowly O's in Baltimore).
So we've got two pitchers, the visiting pitcher performing well on the road and the home team's pitcher performing well at home, but one is nevertheless much more highly regarded at the moment than the other. The oddsmakers know this, obviously, which means Rangers backers will be paying a premium this afternoon while Indians backers will be getting a bargain.
In addition to Feldman's recent brilliance and that sparkling 11-1 road mark, bettors will also be swayed by the fact that Texas drubbed the Indians twice yesterday, scoring 21 runs while making victims out of Cleveland starters Carlos Carrasco (who made his 2nd major league start) and Aaron Laffey (who suffered the worst start of his career after a string of six decent starts). Will the Rangers be able to keep that up without Josh Hamilton and Michael Young? Will Marlon Byrd again bat .777 (like he did yesterday)?
The Rangers again look like contenders after having a great day at Progressive Field, and the fact that they went just 10-10 over their last 20 games prior to that is an afterthought. A sweep looks likely, or so it seeems, but the fact is that while the Indians were swept at home three times in the first half of the season, they haven't been swept once at home since the All-Star break, despite being far out of contention and despite having faced a bunch of teams who are in playoff races. As for the Rangers, it's obvious these guys have been doing most of their damage this season at home (44-25) and not on the road (34-35). Would you believe that out of 20 road series played this season of at least 3 games, the Rangers have only completed one sweep?
I won't make a final decision until morning, but close observers of my work will detect a lean to the homedog here in this series finale. And while I'm sleeping, I'll no doubt be dreaming of waking up to find this line pumped up to +140.
What? What do you dream about?
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