Posted:
#1
From the What-Have-You-Done-For-Me-Lately (and FWIW) dept:
Many casual fans--and even some bettors--I imagine will look at the ERAs of the two opposing pitchers as a key starting point in assessing tonight's game. But they were to look beyond the surface stats, they'd note that Brett Anderson is not the same pitcher he was weeks ago. For one thing, his Ks have markedly increased while his BBs have diminished (although he can still stand improvement there). His 4.33 ERA is misleading: His expected ERA (XERA) is well under 4.
Look carefully at his last five starts: In his most recent outing, he went 6 and was scored on 3 times. Pretty averaage, until you also see he K'd 8 batters and allowed just 4 hits. His undoing? Yep, walks. That game was at Boston, by the way, not exactly batting slouches. The start before that, he went 6.2 innings, K'd 7, but gave up 4 runs, although he walked just two. That as at the Yankees. Start before that, a complete game shout at homw against the Angels. Last full game before that was a complete game shut-out of the BoSox--at Boston.
What's also interesting to note is his flyball to grounder ration in those games: He's been keeping the ball on the ground to the tune of almost 2-1. Before July, he was giving up a homer nearly every 6 IP; that's now down to 1 per 9.
This kid is just 21, and he'll have thew growing pains any rookie pitcher does.
But given his recent performances against very formidable foes, I'm taking the bit of chalk on Oakland against the Rangers tonight (yes, I know the Texas offense is "due."), as well as under the 8.5 (well, it was 8.5 when I made the selection--see plays, as usual, in my profile).
Again, just my humble opinion. YMMV and all that. Good luck to all.
Many casual fans--and even some bettors--I imagine will look at the ERAs of the two opposing pitchers as a key starting point in assessing tonight's game. But they were to look beyond the surface stats, they'd note that Brett Anderson is not the same pitcher he was weeks ago. For one thing, his Ks have markedly increased while his BBs have diminished (although he can still stand improvement there). His 4.33 ERA is misleading: His expected ERA (XERA) is well under 4.
Look carefully at his last five starts: In his most recent outing, he went 6 and was scored on 3 times. Pretty averaage, until you also see he K'd 8 batters and allowed just 4 hits. His undoing? Yep, walks. That game was at Boston, by the way, not exactly batting slouches. The start before that, he went 6.2 innings, K'd 7, but gave up 4 runs, although he walked just two. That as at the Yankees. Start before that, a complete game shout at homw against the Angels. Last full game before that was a complete game shut-out of the BoSox--at Boston.
What's also interesting to note is his flyball to grounder ration in those games: He's been keeping the ball on the ground to the tune of almost 2-1. Before July, he was giving up a homer nearly every 6 IP; that's now down to 1 per 9.
This kid is just 21, and he'll have thew growing pains any rookie pitcher does.
But given his recent performances against very formidable foes, I'm taking the bit of chalk on Oakland against the Rangers tonight (yes, I know the Texas offense is "due."), as well as under the 8.5 (well, it was 8.5 when I made the selection--see plays, as usual, in my profile).
Again, just my humble opinion. YMMV and all that. Good luck to all.
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