Texas vs Detroit (First 5), 4/18/24

Posted Record: 10-3-1 (+8.84 units)

 
Good morning all. The 1st 5 experiment started well yesterday. So gonna give it another go today.

Big prospect, Jack Leiter will debut this afternoon. While I think he’ll have a solid career, I have to fade him here, particularly vs a savvy veteran in Kenta Maeda. 

The step up in class combined with nerves is often too much to overcome. Just ask Jackson Holliday and his .040 batting avg how it’s going.

Occasionally this angle backfires, but more often than not, debuts are tough on young kids, whether they’re a big time prospect or not.

Detroit (First 5) at -110 for 2 units 

LFG

@Kaufee

 yes sirrrr, Lets get it this afternoon

@Kaufee

 yes sirrrr, Lets get it this afternoon

@lik122

 Let’s get it Lik 

 thank you Sir Kaufee

@Shortporch

 Let’s do it Shortporch 

@money_come2me Cheers money 

Let’s gooo!!!

kind of a funny line for this known angle isnt it? I mean if a prospect making their debut is a PK or small favorite vs. Saavy veteran..and on the road as the favorite dont you have to wonder why? Why isnt texas +120 or +140 here on the road with a rookie prospect who has terrible numbers in double A ball?? 

Its because if theres any team that can make him look like an Ace its the detroit tigers and their team batting average of .210 lol. They have guys in their line up batting under .100......meanwhile maeda is deffinitely no ace and far from his prime. I could argue while texas may have the lesser exp. Pitcher...their hitting / defense / bullpen and experience all make up for what their starting pitching may or may not do.

Tread lightly friends. Looks like more bait

@Kaufee

GL Bro

GL Bro

Lets make this money! 

@kevinc004 -

Thanks for your opinion. You seem like the conspiracy type that believes the books are baiting us. Bait is a fallacy and in your head. The line makes perfect sense to me. Detroit has never seen Leiter and he's a big time prospect. And Maeda isn't an ace, just a solid vet. I wouldn't expect anything else than an even split. They play the game for a reason and we def can't win em all. But this is an angle I've played for years and it typically delivers good results.

@OO7CRUSHER -

@pcollins -

@Speckless -

KAUFEE 

maybe bait was the wrong term. I just find it odd least my book has texas -109 det -101 and yesterday with skubal he was only -140 to -150. Normally when an Ace pitcher goes up vs a non Ace you see lines that are much higher than that esp at home..Books might value texas much more than detroit would be the only explanation i could have, and even then texas did get 4 off of the ace yesterday. I think i like the under today more but i do think theres value in the texas line just because i would have them higher than -109 pitching is a big part of it but not everything. Youre right thats why they play the game well see! I just thought it was a strange line considering the pitchers and teams 

I hear you. Texas has the better lineup and they could def get to Maeda. But in today's lineup, only Adolis Garcia has seen Maeda more than 3 times in his career, and he's 2 for 7 with 5 K's. The rest of the team isn't familiar with him.

@Fuse - Thanks Fuse to you as well

@Kaufee

 nice record, SIR!