Posted:
#1
Last time out: 1 - 0, + $272.37
MLB YTD
Record: 88 - 63
Avg Bet: $201
Profit: $5244.76
Return on Risk: 17.3%
09-10-2015
Cards @ -131 (Pinnacle): Risking $200 to win $152.67
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TheActuary - MLB 09-10-2015
Posted:
#2
Where in Quebec are you from?
Also is there a reason why you always risk a flat amount such as $200 instead of risking $262 to win $200 here? Or instead of $196.50 to win $150?
Also you seem to do very well with your mlb picks. Do you use a lot of math for your plays? I found it very interesting when someone mentioned how a game you bet last time Seattle where ML went all the way up to +140 or so when you bet them pretty much close to even money... that you said you actually considered betting more but wanted to keep conservative. So basically line movement doesn't matter at all to you? Because normally if someone person bet seattle -110... then it gets to +140, there are definitely many that don't like their earlier bet and some might even want to eat some juice.
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Posted:
#5
Quote Originally Posted by Drewish:
Where in Quebec are you from?
Where in Quebec are you from?
Also is there a reason why you always risk a flat amount such as $200 instead of risking $262 to win $200 here? Or instead of $196.50 to win $150?
Also you seem to do very well with your mlb picks. Do you use a lot of math for your plays? I found it very interesting when someone mentioned how a game you bet last time Seattle where ML went all the way up to +140 or so when you bet them pretty much close to even money... that you said you actually considered betting more but wanted to keep conservative. So basically line movement doesn't matter at all to you? Because normally if someone person bet seattle -110... then it gets to +140, there are definitely many that don't like their earlier bet and some might even want to eat some juice.
Hey Drewish,
1) From Montreal
2) It makes no sense to vary my bet size amount just for the fun of it. If I put $262 rather than $200, it would be because the return on risk of that particular game is higher and I should risk more dollars on it. By doing what you suggested, it can actually distorts my results for the good or the bad.
I will occasionally put $100 or $300 if I calculate a lower or a higher return on risk on a particular game.
3) Line movement not caused by a particular news (lineup, wind,...) can be taken into account but I have more confidence on my capping ability than what the market thinks. Most of the time, the line will move in my favor. I recall one instance earlier in the season when the line moved against me and I increased my bet of $100 given the new probability implied.
I use a lot of maths in my picks. One of the mistake that most cappers do is to use stats that are not credible (not recent experience or not enough data).
At the end, the most important measure is the return on risk (ROR) you get when you play a game. The return on income (ROI) is totally irrevelant in betting. A bettor that can achieve a return on risk between 5% and 10% during a full season without varying too much the bet size is an excellent and a very profitable capper. A return on risk over 10% is just remarkable!
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Posted:
#6
Thank you very much for that information. I lived in Montreal and liked it there quite a bit.
I'm curious but how long have you been betting for? You been posting plays for close to 1 year now? What was your record last year if you did? I assume you been betting for many years now? So only baseball mostly? I'm sure you bet NHL right? Canadians love hockey i know when i was in Montreal. Do you bet similar amounts in different sports?
Also do you think your return on risk is sustainable? Is 10 percent really sustainable you believe? You are going at a much higher rate than that at the moment. Because from reading what others mention, the people who bet heavy money... it seems for them 2 percent would be a lot of money already for ROR. Obviously 2 percent on smaller amounts would be very little. Im talking about those sharps who bet big amounts of money.
Have you bet size always stayed roughly the same that you been betting throughout this time? Because i would figure you would probably increase it the bigger your bankroll goes up? Or you don't feel comfortable laying more than say 300 a game? Also, do you ever have more than a few plays a day if you find an edge? Or is 3 plays pretty much the most plays you would find some type of edge.
I had figured you are a math guy with that username.
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Posted:
#7
MLB - It's my first full season of MLB betting.
NFL - I have never posted on the NFL forum. I didn't track my results but I'm profitable. I will post on covers NFL forum this year. My goal is to achieve a 10% return on risk, but would be very pleased with a 5% ROR.
NHL - No serious NHL betting yet but did a survivor (prize amount $10k) and won it. With the hedge, net profit of a little over $6k.
5% is achievable in the long run. You have some cappers in this forum that have done it few years in a row.
I don't really have a bankroll. I have a few thousands spread in my accounts and I withdraw (deposit) when my account goes up (down). I wager based on my personal wealth. I have a very good salary and so is my wife, but I can't afford betting more than that. Maybe in a few years but not short term.
I would bet all games in a given day if I find a considerable hedge in those games. Usually it is between 0 to 3 games (sometimes 4 games but pretty rare).
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Posted:
#8
Hey thanks for that information. I thought you bet mlb last year since your join date. Is there any other sports that you bet besides these? So basicaly mlb and nfl only? I assume no nba or college basketball or football? Do you use the same type of math in nfl similar to mlb? I assume math works the best in mlb right?
Ah okay i got it with the bankroll thing. Because since you seem to do very well and use math in your betting, i'm surprised you aren't betting a lot more on these games.
But don't you keep your betting bankroll separate from everything else? Or do you just cashout when you want to get the actual profit as oppose to just leaving your balance there.
Also are almost all your bets openers? Seems like most of your bets are all on pinnacle. Do you use any other books? I assume that and bet365 and bodog? Do you bet openers because you feel the line is good now so you don't wait till the line moves against you? And what about days where you post plays during the day the game starts. is it because not enough time before or no bets were good according to your math on opening lines.
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Posted:
#17
Quote Originally Posted by Drewish:
Hey thanks for that information. I thought you bet mlb last year since your join date. Is there any other sports that you bet besides these? So basicaly mlb and nfl only? I assume no nba or college basketball or football? Do you use the same type of math in nfl similar to mlb? I assume math works the best in mlb right?
Hey thanks for that information. I thought you bet mlb last year since your join date. Is there any other sports that you bet besides these? So basicaly mlb and nfl only? I assume no nba or college basketball or football? Do you use the same type of math in nfl similar to mlb? I assume math works the best in mlb right?
Ah okay i got it with the bankroll thing. Because since you seem to do very well and use math in your betting, i'm surprised you aren't betting a lot more on these games.
But don't you keep your betting bankroll separate from everything else? Or do you just cashout when you want to get the actual profit as oppose to just leaving your balance there.
Also are almost all your bets openers? Seems like most of your bets are all on pinnacle. Do you use any other books? I assume that and bet365 and bodog? Do you bet openers because you feel the line is good now so you don't wait till the line moves against you? And what about days where you post plays during the day the game starts. is it because not enough time before or no bets were good according to your math on opening lines.
Yes math works better in MLB. In other sports too, but you havr to look at individual matchup and balance it in your decision factor.
Pinnacle / bet365 / bodog for now. I will eventually add other books.
I prefer to bet on opener. I will rarely wait for a better line unless it's a dog and I feel that the public will hammer the favorite. If I post during the day, it's because I didn't have time to cap games the night before or I'm concerned about a team sitting key players.
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Posted:
#21
Just curious but when did you start using math to cap games? I assume you started betting many years ago but was just someone who just picked games? But now you are using math? Or you never bet games even when you started and picked games you liked and always bet with some type of math approach.
Quote Originally Posted by TheActuary:
Yes math works better in MLB. In other sports too, but you havr to look at individual matchup and balance it in your decision factor.
Pinnacle / bet365 / bodog for now. I will eventually add other books.
I prefer to bet on opener. I will rarely wait for a better line unless it's a dog and I feel that the public will hammer the favorite. If I post during the day, it's because I didn't have time to cap games the night before or I'm concerned about a team sitting key players.
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Posted:
#24
Quote Originally Posted by bob110:
Hi Actuary,
Would you post the calculation for Return on Risk please. Also, why is RoR the better ratio than Return on Investment? I'm not a math person at all and new to sports wagering.
Thank you.
Return on Risk = Profit / amount wagered
In my case, return on risk = 5244.76 / 30 400 = 17.3%
ROI (return on income or return on investment) is irrelevant. I have started with $1200 this season. I didn't have to deposit as I had a good start to the season. My ROI would be 5244.76 / 1200 = 437%!!! The calculation is distorted with the bankroll you start with. This calculation is better suited for the investment world, not for betting. When you use a return on risk, you know exactly what is your return for each bet you place. Let's say you have a ROR of 10%, you make in average $20 of profit for each bet of $200.
Hope it helps 
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