Posted:
#26
GOOD LUCK BOB
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Thirsty Thursday 5 inning plays,,,,,,,,,,7-1-2 yest
Posted:
#28
gregg need your thoughts ,,,,,
GREGG i just rec e mail from CHINA we can get a great deal on Electric scooters 26 in container but i need to send money,,,,as said these electric scooters are all electric and you need no license or insurance to operate here in USA and are great for running around locally they do not go any faster than 30/35 MPH and we can get them at a great price ,, wish we could find another guy with intrest to get this biz on track,,,i see them being sold for 1,000+ and we are far below that with ocean frt and duty into usa ,,,
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Posted:
#29
Quote Originally Posted by gfoss59:
i started by focusing on the F5, but after looking and thinking, i like buehrle over 9 innings, and on the runline... so it may not be relevant, or even heretical... but here's my reasoning, just in case someone is interested.
i started by focusing on the F5, but after looking and thinking, i like buehrle over 9 innings, and on the runline... so it may not be relevant, or even heretical... but here's my reasoning, just in case someone is interested.
Buehrle-CHW vs. Chen-KC -- runline
One-star pick:
Buehrle-CHW -- 9 innings, runline
Can you believe it? We like the White Sox in back to back games -- on the road. Indeed, this pick might be two stars, if we had a bigger track record for KC's Chen this season.
Still, there's plenty to justify an investment in the Sox even after last night's 5-inning push on Contreras, the White Sox getting to Sowers, but not until the later innings (something Sowers is working into more and more, by the way.)
Buehrle-CHW LHP -- first five innings -- 2hw(KC)- 1hw(Minn)- 2aw(TB)- 2hw(Tor)- 3al(Tex)- 1hl(Oak)- 0hw(Det)- 4al(Clev)- 0hw(Minn)- 1hw(Pitt)- 2al(KC)- 1hl(Oak) - 3hp(Det) - 3aw(Milw) - 0aw(Cinn) - 3hw(CHC)
first 5 wlp: 10-5-1, away: 3-3-0, 9 inning team wlp: 11-4, runline cover rate 8-3.
(Note: Last 5 Buehrle wins against Kansas City all covered runline. Last 11 White Sox wins against Kansas City -- all of 2008-2009 -- covered runline.)
Chen-KC LHP -- first five innings -- 3al(Pitts) -
Pitching notes: Buehrle's notoriously good at home, so-so on road -- but he's also very solid against the Royals. He's ruled Kansas City with 8 Sox wins in his last 10 appearances against them, despite a so-so 3.5 ERA. Sox 20-6 vs. Royals when Buehrle starts; he's won 6 of last 8 in KC.
Chen by contrast is 1-1 against the Sox -- who seem to thrive on pitchers they've seen before this year -- mostly in relief appearances with the Orioles. Career ERA vs. Sox, 5.7.
The splits are marginally good for Buehrle tonight too. Chen's daytime ERA is 4.0; nighttime, 5.0. Buehrle's day-night splits are virtually the same, and he's 0.3 points higher on the road -- but as we observed, seems to pitch well in KC.
The bats: White Sox now hitting .400 last 10 games against left-handers, scording more than a dozen runs per 9 innings. And against three decent lefty starters: Wolf of LAD, Lee for Indians, and Sowers (who's starting to put up some very low first 5 numbers -- you want to get some action on 9 innings when he's pitching, as he often gets roughed up in the 6th or 7th -- or gives way to the, *ulp*, Indians bullpen.)
KC, by contrast, scoring 1.7 runs per 9 innings -- not a typo, one-point-seven -- against southpaws. And Buehrle is surely a better-than-average southpaw.
Injuries: Sox will be missing SS Ramirez Thursday (rest.) KC still missing several lineup players, however, notably including Crisp, Buck, and Jordan.
5 vs. 9 vs. runline -- Always a question for us these days, as some pitchers do extra well in the first five (Halladay, Billingsley, Greinke -- fewer losses than in 9 innings) -- while others actually exceed over 9... and-or, manage to cover the runline (again, Halladay, Billingsley, and others.)
With this game, we like 9 innings a little more than 5, and we like the runline. Sox last 11 wins vs. KC have been by two runs or more. Ditto Buehrle's last 5 wins over KC. Buehrle's the kind of pitcher that isn't always lights-out first 5, but nearly always gives you 7 or so innings with 3-4 runs allowed. Sox should be able to pound Chen for more than that, making the best value of the three a 9-inning runline, though people with different tastes may like the 5 inning or 9 inning moneyline too.
where do you get all your stats, i sent you a friend request can you accept it
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Posted:
#30
Quote Originally Posted by goallinebob:
from buehrles # he appears he was a better play inn 6-9 in may than june
re: Beuhrle
thanks, bob --
yes, buehrle's not been lights out lately. lots of 3s in those first five lines... but unlike cliff lee, who has much better "numbers," there's a key letter i like next to them (the way i keep the stats) -- and that letter is "w."
this is a combination play based on the sox sticks against ineffective lefty chen, after they've just decimated cliff lee andother quality lefties.
he's not a 0-0-1-0-1-0-0 first five guy -- he's a big, steady, 7 inning, 3-4 runs allowed guy playing for a team that is now pounding lefties.
i'm reminded a lot of andy pettitte -- whom i can't stand watching these days, so many walks, so many behind in the counts -- but one of the best money winning pitchers in baseball.
and i do like the 9 and the runline, for reasons explained. (same for angels tonight -- with certain teams and pitchers, i want those last four innings; i want my bullpen against theirs; &tc.) --
so it may be sort of a heritcal post for this forum -- not really a five inning play. but it's funny, i arrived at that conclusion from starting to look at it as a F5 play, and "wound up" thinking, nah, it's a 9.
i see value in our specializing, but i also see value in looking at certain propositions and saying, "you know what -- in my usual shoebox, 5 innings, this doesn't work -- or let's say, it's only soso -- but in this other box, it works pretty well."
cheers, gfoss
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Posted:
#31
by the way, here are those money winners --
it's all over 9 innings, but it would not be hard to approximate it for first 5s -- im pretty sure halladay, freedman, and billingsley would be top 3, with greinke, cueto, cain, lincecum right up there.
it's all over 9 innings, but it would not be hard to approximate it for first 5s -- im pretty sure halladay, freedman, and billingsley would be top 3, with greinke, cueto, cain, lincecum right up there.
| 1 | Matt Palmer | LAA | 9-2 | 81.8 | $1064 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| 2 | Tim Wakefield | BOS | 12-3 | 80.0 | $933 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 |
| 3 | Josh Johnson | FLA | 13-4 | 76.5 | $889 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 0 |
| 4 | Jeff Niemann | TB | 11-4 | 73.3 | $799 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Jason Marquis | COL | 11-5 | 68.8 | $786 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 1 |
| 6 | Josh Beckett | BOS | 12-4 | 75.0 | $641 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 1 |
| 7 | Rich Hill | BAL | 7-2 | 77.8 | $585 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 |
| 8 | Eric Stults | LA | 7-2 | 77.8 | $585 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 9 | Andy Pettitte | NYY | 12-4 | 75.0 | $561 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 3 |
| 10 | Mark Buehrle | CHW | 11-4 | 73.3 | $560 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 3 |
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Davis was in wayy to many deep problems just to succeed with a push,,,,,
,,,,,strike him out with bases loaded ,,some how i survived with both sides
Posted:
#33
Quote Originally Posted by allamay1608:
where do you get all your stats, i sent you a friend request can you accept it
Allamay -- hail fellow well met. I'll send you a PM too, but just so anyone else who's interested knows:
1. I compile the 5 inning line by brute force. I compile things like the Beckett daytime line -- which kept us off Beckett, and off the under, in the Red Sox game Wednesday -- by brue force.
It's a lot of work, and I'm interested in partnering with anyone who would like to share the load. I wanted, in part, to be able to demonstrate in real time that all this "stuff" works -- so far, so good. We are 43-18-10 "two star plays," and 56-38-10 on "one star plays," the latter of which are often small favorites, underdogs, runline plays, that sort of thing. Up about 40 units on the above 175 or so propositions....
2. The stats on splits are readily available at MLB.com, Covers, Yahoo Sports, and so on, if you know where to click. I find Yahoo easiest to navigate for individual players, while covers has the best trend and team splits, or splits for this season.
3. GoallineBob keeps a lot of 5-inning stats and is usually happy to share. If you have a request he'll usually share whatever data you want, within reason. Best if you can give him a few days notice -- we're all busy on game day.
4. For weather, I go to Yahoo. Don't count on Covers for weather -- their weather reports stink. I try to avoid games if there's a really solid chance of a rainout -- but more especially, if its certain guys, or a close proposition. I know it sounds paranoid, but I stayed off C.C. Sabathia against Florida -- I knew that fat tub of lard wouldn't want to put down his bag of cheetos and pitch during a day game under the hot Florida sun.
5. For injury reports, I check both Covers and Sportsnetwork.com. The latter is generally better, but someones one has something that the other doesn't, both ways. Sportsnetwork also posts lineups about 45 mintues to 90 minutes pre-game. Very valuable. You never know: Sometimes they rest someone important, or his pinky doesn't heal, and it only comes up last minute.
Hope this helps -- and as I say, I'm open to forming a partnership of fellow laborers in the vinyard... guys who are willing to put in those extra minutes or hours of time that can lift your wins up to 63 percent from 58 percent -- or whatever.
Cheers, gfoss
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Posted:
#34
gregg i used to use that a lot last year but i'm not sure how well it applys in first 5
i will review and post what is see
Palmer 5-4-1,,much better in 9 inn
Wakefd,,10-3-1,,for some reason i only have 14 games so i must missed one
Johnson,,,,11-3-3
Niemann,,9-4-2
Marquis,,9-4-3
Beckett,11-3-1
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Posted:
#35
Bob, so you know, Zito has struggled against the Cardinals a bit -- I know we don't care, &tc., but it's something to consider:
Barry Zito (L) Previous Starts vs. St. Louis
| 05/30/09 | STL | 2-6 | 140/7 | L/O | 6.2 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 116 | 17.4 | 1.60 |
| 04/11/08 | STL | 2-8 | 122/7.5 | L/O | 6.0 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 98 | 16.3 | 0.60 |
| 07/08/07 | @ STL | 0-7 | -108/9 | L/U | 4.0 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 84 | 21.0 | 0.29 |
| 06/15/04 | (OAK) @ STL | 4-8 | 105/9 | L/O | 5.0 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 115 | 23.0 | 1.33 |
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Posted:
#36
Quote Originally Posted by goallinebob:
gregg i used to use that a lot last year but i'm not sure how well it applys in first 5
i will review and post what is see
Palmer 5-4-1,,much better in 9 inn
Wakefd,,10-3-1,,for some reason i only have 14 games so i must missed one
Johnson,,,,11-3-3
Niemann,,9-4-2
Marquis,,9-4-3
Beckett,11-3-1
Hey, now we're talking -- I think this is very useful. Certainly, a component for us to conisder. I'm surprised Marquis is as good for 5 innings as that.
And Palmer -- well, like I say, in many cases, I think we want the cross-bullpen exposure, we want the extra innings. The Angels are a better team than Baltimore... so, statistically, the more times we flip the coin, the more the results should close in in the mean.
I betcha Pettitte is much better in 9 innings.... Greinke better in 5... and so on.
Cheers, gfoss
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Posted:
#40
Here's Wellemeyer against Giants -- he's never lost to them, fyi.
Todd Wellemeyer (L) Previous Starts vs. San Francisco
| 04/18/08 | SF | 11-1 | -133/7.5 | W/O | 7.0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 107 | 15.3 | 0.88 |
| 04/12/08 | @ SF | 8-7 | -104/7.5 | W/O | 6.0 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 93 | 15.5 | 1.50 |
| 07/08/07 | SF | 7-0 | 100/9 | W/U | 5.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 80 | 16.0 | 0.62 |
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