Buehrle-CHW vs. Chen-KC -- runline

One-star pick:

Buehrle-CHW -- 9 innings, runline

Can you believe it?  We like the White Sox in back to back games -- on the road.  Indeed, this pick might be two stars, if we had a bigger track record for KC's Chen this season. 

Still, there's plenty to justify an investment in the Sox even after last night's 5-inning push on Contreras, the White Sox getting to Sowers, but not until the later innings (something Sowers is working into more and more, by the way.)  

   Buehrle-CHW LHP -- first five innings -- 2hw(KC)- 1hw(Minn)- 2aw(TB)- 2hw(Tor)- 3al(Tex)- 1hl(Oak)- 0hw(Det)- 4al(Clev)- 0hw(Minn)- 1hw(Pitt)- 2al(KC)- 1hl(Oak) - 3hp(Det) - 3aw(Milw) - 0aw(Cinn) - 3hw(CHC)
   first 5 wlp: 10-5-1,  away: 3-3-0, 9 inning team wlp: 11-4, runline cover rate 8-3. 
   (Note:  Last 5 Buehrle wins against Kansas City all covered runline.  Last 11 White Sox wins against Kansas City -- all of 2008-2009 -- covered runline.)
   Chen-KC LHP -- first five innings -- 3al(Pitts) -

   Pitching notes:  Buehrle's notoriously good at home, so-so on road -- but he's also very solid against the Royals.  He's ruled Kansas City with 8 Sox wins in his last 10 appearances against them, despite a so-so 3.5 ERA.  Sox 20-6 vs. Royals when Buehrle starts; he's won 6 of last 8 in KC.
   Chen by contrast is 1-1 against the Sox -- who seem to thrive on pitchers they've seen before this year -- mostly in relief appearances with the Orioles. Career ERA vs. Sox, 5.7.
   The splits are marginally good for Buehrle tonight too.  Chen's daytime ERA is 4.0; nighttime, 5.0.  Buehrle's day-night splits are virtually the same, and he's 0.3 points higher on the road -- but as we observed, seems to pitch well in KC.

   The bats:  White Sox now hitting .400 last 10 games against left-handers, scording more than a dozen runs per 9 innings.  And against three decent lefty starters:  Wolf of LAD, Lee for Indians, and Sowers (who's starting to put up some very low first 5 numbers -- you want to get some action on 9 innings when he's pitching, as he often gets roughed up in the 6th or 7th -- or gives way to the, *ulp*, Indians bullpen.)
   KC, by contrast, scoring 1.7 runs per 9 innings -- not a typo, one-point-seven -- against southpaws.  And Buehrle is surely a better-than-average southpaw. 

   Injuries:  Sox will be missing SS Ramirez Thursday (rest.)  KC still missing several lineup players, however, notably including Crisp, Buck, and Jordan. 

   5 vs. 9 vs. runline -- Always a question for us these days, as some pitchers do extra well in the first five (Halladay, Billingsley, Greinke -- fewer losses than in 9 innings) -- while others actually exceed over 9...  and-or, manage to cover the runline (again, Halladay, Billingsley, and others.) 
  With this game, we like 9 innings a little more than 5, and we like the runline.  Sox last 11 wins vs. KC have been by two runs or more.  Ditto Buehrle's last 5 wins over KC.  Buehrle's the kind of pitcher that isn't always lights-out first 5, but nearly always gives you 7 or so innings with 3-4 runs allowed.  Sox should be able to pound Chen for more than that, making the best value of the three a 9-inning runline, though people with different tastes may like the 5 inning or 9 inning moneyline too. 

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