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This is who Vegas likes today.

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Posted: #1
Colorodo-1.5 +110
Florida+1.5-150
Over 10 CWS
Pitt+1.5 -160
Houston+1.5-140
Boston-113
Yankees-113
Under 9 Arizona/Mets
Under 9 +110 Atlanta/Dodgers
 
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Posted: #2
Lets look at the LA/Atlanta line.   
1.  Throw every stat out the fucking window.  You cant find a stat they dont know about.  Look at the line.
2.  Notice they are making the Runline 100 cents of juice on both sides This means they see a low scoring game.
3.  Notice they are not coming off the #9 total and applying the juice instead.  They dont want to go to 9,5 and discourage action on the over(although they will have to eventually). 
4.  Only sure thing in life is death and taxes.
 
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Posted: #3
Atlanta-175  but+125
Dodgers+165  BUT -145
 
With a 9 over 30
 
Tell me thats not one of the goofiest lines you've ever seen.   They are telling you plain as day they like the under.
 
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i already got 9.5 under  at -115 for LAD/ATL


its still there also
 
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Los Angeles Dodgers/Atlanta Braves under 9½ -115 for Game
 
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[Quote: Originally Posted by CANEMATAD0R] Los Angeles Dodgers/Atlanta Braves under 9½ -115 for Game
[/Quote    I dont mind the 9.5 -115  but in THIS instance I'd rather have the 9+110.  I dont think a .5 of a run is worth 25 cents juice here.   Apples and oranges.  But ask yourself what that .5 run is worth?
 
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by MistakeHitter:

Lets look at the LA/Atlanta line.   
1.  Throw every stat out the fucking window.  You cant find a stat they dont know about.  Look at the line.

 

 

That might be the biggest fallacy in all of sports betting, that the oddsmakers know everything.  There are an endless number of stats that they don't know about.  It's not that they don't try to do their homework, it's just that there are only so many hours in the day.  A bettor can definetely come up with stats and trends that they don't know about and that haven't been factored into the line.

 
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I got 3 more lines that are similar...they're not that rare...from this do you think vegas likes the over in the WAS/PIT and ARI/NYM game? and under in the HOU/STL game?
HOU/STL game O/U 9

O 9 -130
U 9 +110

WAS/PIT game O/U 8.5

O 8.5 +110
U 8.5 -130

ARI/NYM game O/U 9.0

O 9.0 +110
U 9.0 -130

 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by MrBator:

 

 

That might be the biggest fallacy in all of sports betting, that the oddsmakers know everything.  There are an endless number of stats that they don't know about.  It's not that they don't try to do their homework, it's just that there are only so many hours in the day.  A bettor can definetely come up with stats and trends that they don't know about and that haven't been factored into the line.

Mr bator that may be true in october when there is over 100 games on the board but not on a day where there is only 15 MLB games.
 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by MrBator:

 

 

That might be the biggest fallacy in all of sports betting, that the oddsmakers know everything.  There are an endless number of stats that they don't know about.  It's not that they don't try to do their homework, it's just that there are only so many hours in the day.  A bettor can definetely come up with stats and trends that they don't know about and that haven't been factored into the line.



Give us one for today. I know you've got one.
 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by JTmonayyy:

I got 3 more lines that are similar...they're not that rare...from this do you think vegas likes the over in the WAS/PIT and ARI/NYM game? and under in the HOU/STL game?
HOU/STL game O/U 9

O 9 -130
U 9 +110

WAS/PIT game O/U 8.5

O 8.5 +110
U 8.5 -130

ARI/NYM game O/U 9.0

O 9.0 +110
U 9.0 -130

First off I've stated the Under in Arizona/Mets already.  Second Vegas doesn't have an opinion of every game.  And third the pitt/nats line isn't similar to the LA/Atl line.  
 
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Posted: #13
That Atlanta game might go over in the first inning.  But Las Vegas has more information than 99.9% of bettors and are masters of steering the action.  Gl
 
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Posted: #14
Runline 100 cents of juice on both sides ... what does that mean? sorry...
 
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Posted: #15
why are they bating unders on atl tm total if they like under and close??
 
5 is a high team total and juice is -130 seems like they're baiting unders to me???
 
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Quote Originally Posted by JTmonayyy:

Runline 100 cents of juice on both sides ... what does that mean? sorry...
   JT you need to go read a book, sportsgambling for dummies or something.  I'm serious, I dont mean that as a joke.   Look at ATL moneyline, its -175, then look at ATL on the runline, its +125.  That is a 100 cent difference in juice. 
 
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Posted: #17

Quote Originally Posted by MistakeHitter:

Mr bator that may be true in october when there is over 100 games on the board but not on a day where there is only 15 MLB games.

 

 

I disagree bigtime.  On an average day during baseball season, with the usual 15 games on the card, there are loads of stats and trends that the oddsmakers don't know about.  Again, there's only so much research they can do in a 24-hour span.

 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by 53percent:

why are they bating unders on atl tm total if they like under and close??
 
5 is a high team total and juice is -130 seems like they're baiting unders to me???
i see 5 over -19   under +03.  not 30????  Maybe your book is getting hit on the atl game.
 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by MrBator:

 

 

I disagree bigtime.  On an average day during baseball season, with the usual 15 games on the card, there are loads of stats and trends that the oddsmakers don't know about.  Again, there's only so much research they can do in a 24-hour span.

Lets talk about an actual game.   If you are a stat and trend guy you must love the under in the NY/CWS game.    Cellular field is a notorious under balllpark and the under has hit in richards last 11 starts.   Yet the books opened the line at 10 and it went up to 10.5.   If this was just because squares bet the yankees over then the sharper action would of bet it back down but that didn't happen.(yet)   That line tells me the books like the over.
 
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by MistakeHitter:

That Atlanta game might go over in the first inning.  But Las Vegas has more information than 99.9% of bettors and are masters of steering the action.  Gl

 

 

Today's Las Vegas doesn't know shit.  The real brains of sports betting oddsmaking now work outside of the United States, and on this forum, we've chosen to refer to them as the "Pirates of the Caribbean."

 

 
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by MrBator:

 

 

Today's Las Vegas doesn't know shit.  The real brains of sports betting oddsmaking now work outside of the United States, and on this forum, we've chosen to refer to them as the "Pirates of the Caribbean."

 

i agree with that 100%   I say vegas just out of habit.  All the brains and all the money is offshore.
 
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Posted: #22

Quote Originally Posted by Mike_NYC:



Give us one for today. I know you've got one.

 

 

Okay.  The Nationals have failed to cover the +1.5 runline eight times in a row this season when they're up against a team that's on a losing streak of at least 3 games.  In other words, when a struggling team gets the Nats, they don't waste the opportunity!

 
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Posted: #23

Quote Originally Posted by MistakeHitter:

   JT you need to go read a book, sportsgambling for dummies or something.  I'm serious, I dont mean that as a joke.   Look at ATL moneyline, its -175, then look at ATL on the runline, its +125.  That is a 100 cent difference in juice. 


Thanks for the explanation, I appreciate it...really I do...I didn't necessarily need the chirping, however, coming from a guy with 26 posts...

I'll admit i'm fairly new to MLB betting, I'm pretty successful in hockey and football season, but they're not in season right now...

Either way...here's a lesson...don't start talking like that because you will get torn apart in this forum.

 
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Posted: #24

Quote Originally Posted by MistakeHitter:

i agree with that 100%   I say vegas just out of habit.  All the brains and all the money is offshore.

 

 

That's understandable, but I'm hoping to get people to break that habit.  Today's Las Vegas sports betting scene no longer deserves such respect.  Or any respect.

 
 
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Pirates are a different team at home then away also. Night and Day different!
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