Win-loss records this year for team with this starting pitcher:
Chi-Pitt-- Hendricks 16-12; Morton 13-7
Mia-Wsh-- Cosart 4-6; Roark 4-4
StL-Mil-- Lackey 15-14; Nelson 14-15
A's-Chi-- Nolin 1-1; Quintana 14-15 (5-0 last 5)
KC-Clev-- Ventura 13-11 (8-2 last 10); Kluber 11-18
Balt-TB-- Tillman 12-15 (1-6 last 7); Moore 2-6
Hst-Tex-- McCullers 8-10; Lewis 14-15
LA-Minn-- Santiago 14-14; Milone
11-9
Tor-Atl-- Estrada 14-10; Wisler 6-9 (0-6 last 6)
Let’s compare Santiago’s last 5 home and away starts:
L5 home: 1.3 K/BB; 1.6 HR/9; 3.2 ERA
L5 away: 1.7 K/BB; 2.2 HR/9; 7.4 ERA
He hasn’t pitched well in either location, but has been lucky enough to maintain a lower ERA at home than on the road. Overall though he ranks as my 164th starting pitcher out of 164 (dead-last) over the last 30-days. His BB-rate of 17% is higher than his K-rate of 16%, he’s allowing almost 2 HR’s per 9 innings, and his SIERA of 6.3 is a full run higher than his 5.3 ERA during this time-frame. I have Santiago’s eERA (expected ERA) at 6.6 based on his performance over the last 30-days. By comparison I have Milone’s eERA of 3.6, a full 3 runs lower. Milone is pitching well right now keeping the ball on the ground (48% GB-rate), inducing a strong SwStr-rate of 10% (league average is about 7.5%), and keeping the ball in the park (0.6 HR/9). He’ll also be facing an Angels lineup that ranks 26th against lefties on the year and 29th overall offensively in the last month. By comparison, Twins are 15th against left-handers. I’ll take the BP’s out of this one as LA has a strong advantage there (Twins rank 28th and still don’t have their closer Perkins back) and will play this one for 1st 5 innings only.
Vegas Butcher
Established in 1995,
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