Thx Vegas & Geniuses 8/11/12

Dear Vegas-
Thanks for the win on Friday with the Phillies. I see that the same situation has occurred with a different pitcher on the hill for the Phil's.  "St Louis Can't lose two in a row, right?"  Nice lure!
Sincerely,
Seabiscuit

PHI -133

Shiny Lures
30-17

Fulcrum
2-0

I know this fits the criteria, but aren't you worried about Stl hitting very well vs lefties??

To be perfectly blunt, no. 

My response back to people who think this way is two things:

1) aren't you worried about teams averages versus lefties regressing towards the norm?

2) aren't you worried about Cliff Lee's history towards the end of a season and how he absolutely steamrolls teams? 

...this play is not about an argument.  It's simply a worse record, higher ERA, favored, and consensus has overloaded on the dog.  4 rubrics - plain and simple.

I'm actually seeing this play stronger when the either the road team is favored or when the home team is favored by 120 or more. 

BOL 

i like the play

Been tailing you for a little now, and as a Cards fan it's tough for me to place the bet (like last night), but I think you are right here and will be tailing again. BOL taft

DOM

Ringer

The linesmakers know all of these stats and 100 more when they make the lines.

With ya on this one, tafter.

Precisely! 

I won't deter from my money management strategy, but this makes me want to play it even harder now! 

BOL 

JEZ

You've got a point there. I'm not following nor fading, just would like to get a bit more insight as this angle will be in my tool box in the next season. Than again, at 30-17 who needs scratching beneath the surface?? ;-)

Good luck today.

Cardinals only win this game if it were in October

Love this spot for cliff 

Gogic...
Different styles work in different parts of a season, especially baseball.  In April, look more for dogs; in July, look more at favorites.  If I tried posting this play in April, it probably would have gotten its ass kicked.  Either way, unfortunately, each season takes on its own flavor too.

Also, 47 games is not a huge sample size; however, I'm happy with the results.  I didn't post the units, but these favorites have never been more than 150, and most of them are around the 125 range even though we've seen them come up as -108, -110 -117 etc.  These favorites, I believe, and correct me if I'm wrong guys, seem to average between -120 and -130

I've learned, in my own experience, that different things work in different times of the season, and not all good ideas transfer over to other sports. 

BOL

I can't say I disagree. 

One For The Money!

I'd like to see this play get to 40 wins before it gets to 20 losses!

Like what you've got going here.  

Much respect Tafter, I remember seeing your very first post here with your plays and your strategy for reading lines.  I admit I was very apprehensive of your approach, but it has definitely worked out for you.  Impressed.  Keep it going. 

CP Graves

Silly

Doctered

Some people swear by momentum.  My question to these momentum players is this...

Why don't 1/2 the teams end up 162-0 and the other half 0-162? 

Things always change!  Funny how, in december, we cannot seem to recall hot and humid it gets in the summer.  And, how, in July, we just cannot seem to remember how freakin cold it is in January! 

I learned my lesson a few years ago when I faded an absolutely fired up West Virginia team in the Fiesta Bowl. 

This is what I learned.

1) never fade a bowl team with a new coach
2) never bet on a team with a freshmen quarterback in a bowl game
3) never bet on a team that's disappointed in their bowl game spot
4) never bet with money you cannot afford to lose

I learned the value in going the opposite way that night, and I'LL NEVER FORGET IT! 

Everyone was on OKC.  I took the plus money with Lebron James and Dwayne Wade.  How was this opposite way? 

Everyone was betting with RESENTFUL MONEY, not smart money; they were betting to get even with MIAMI because they got their asses kicked against DALLAS the previous year.

Dallas was the dog, they won.

Miami was the dog, they won.

NYG dogs, they won.

GB huge favorites, sucked in game 1 of the playoffs. 

Chicago Bulls sucked against the 76ers. 

I hope LA Lakers make it to the finals against Miami again.  Miami will be dogs again! And I will win AGAIN by taking Miami! 

Nash, Kobe, Gasol are old, and D. Howard is grossly overrated.
The square play is the lakers!

BOL

Thanks.  I believe you're referring to my first baseball post for this season, right?

Because I can tell you that I was posting play for NFL, NBA, NHL, and NCAAB a couple years ago.  I believed that I found numerical patterns that no one else knew.  I started a blog.  I had a list of 20 plays across all the various sports.  I was a huge hit.  I had over 1000 page views per day because I was posting winners consistently.  Then on super bowl sunday, I predicted that GB would win by 7, and they won by 6.  On this same day, all 3 of my NCAAB totals plays were winners. 

Maybe it was a matter of chance, but I preceded to get absolutely steamrolled in NHL, NCAAB and NBA for the rest of the season.  I was completely embarrassed.    What did I learn? 

I'm not posting the exact details of all my plays anymore. 

The fulcrum play will not be explained.  I'll post it, but I'm not defining it.  I defined the shiny lures play, but it's still only going to work in certain parts of the season. 

BOL

Tafter you seem to have a solid head on your shoulders -- I applaud you for that.