To Tail, Or Not To Tail?

To Tail, Or Not To Tail? With all due apologies to Mr. Shakespeare, that is the question. I will open this blog with the opinion that, like most things on Covers, there has been more misinformation posted to date than truly worthy information. Every time the subject comes up there appear many posts criticizing tailing and saying “do it yourself.” What those posters seem to ignore is, do you have the time, resources and analytical ability and application talent to “do it yourself”. The two most dominant methods of handicapping are statistical analysis and game/player observation and there are people competent one way or the other that can do quite well.

 

Where does this leave the guy or gal that knows they lack one, several, or all of the necessary prerequisites?  Should they simply refrain from putting a few bucks on a few games? Personally, I don’t feel that way. As far as I am concerned, anyone that keeps their wagering well within their means is doing nothing different than the people that choose to spend their disposable income on movies, spas, expensive clothes, expensive restaurants, cars and vacations. It is their money and their choice, BUT; winning is more fun, and less expensive, than losing. So, if they choose to tail a handicapper they have established faith in, who is to tell them not to?

That being said, what should be the non handicappers’ criteria for tailing? The following is my humble opinion and anyone that agrees and religiously follows this method is welcome to report back in October and tells us if it was a worthy opinion or not, after all; beauty is in the eye of the beholder.

Choose, 5 to 10, not less nor more, handicappers to chart through April, possibly May or June, if there is no reason to change any of the original group. My suggestions would be people that have a tendency to write up an analysis, at least one paragraph, and tend to post early in the day, and retire for that day. People that pop up late, or throughout the day, especially with late games on the West Coast, are people that are not getting their work done efficiently and may by necessity not be getting deeply enough into their analysis of their choices. This is especially true of late posts on West Coast games, where the poster may well be chasing early losses, instead of calling it a day and eating his loss. Go to bed, tomorrow is another day. If one of your chosen group does post later it is important that the results get included in your chart, so revisit the posts of the people you follow the next morning, to be sure you did not miss a late pick. This will also alert you to people that consistently post late, a forewarning that will plant a little warning flag or speed bump in your own mind, for future reference.

Chart your selected handicappers daily and without fail. I can not emphasize this enough. If you have time to look over the games yourself or attempt any mathematical, analytical analysis, you certainly have time for this. If you are looking to tail good handicappers you already have doubts about your own analytical ability anyway, so the time is probably better spent on the charting.

Disregard, W-L record, Units, and the handicappers quoted line.

W-L is irrelevant. A guy can go 10-6 and lose money if his average line was -175.

Units are subject to interpretation and mean different things to different people.

The quoted line is the single easiest thing to fudge and it is amazing how people justify it. “I played it last night.” “That’s what my local quoted me.” “Available at (insert book) at the time I played.” All nonsense, because it may or may not be available as you are reading the post. What matters to you is the line at the time you are reading the post and can actually get down on.

Return on Risk, versus the lines you were able to get, is the only criteria that will completely level the playing field. Very, very easy to compute and chart. If the line you are able to get is -175 the return on risk for a winner is .5714 or $57.14 for a $100 wager (100/175). If the line is -145 the return on risk is .6897 or $68.97 for a $100 wager (100/145). It absolutely does not matter if you are an “add the juice” player, “flat amount player” or “add the juice, short play the dog” type of player, the results will always be the same and as accurate as mathematics can get. So; if the “add the juice player” wagers $175 to make $100, the return on risk is still .5714 (100/175).

Now, that being said, the next problem is what to do with the handicapper that plays 1, 2, 5, 10 or 20 “STARS” per game? I will leave it to the judgment of the individual to decide if the handicapper should be credited-debited for 1, 2, 5, 10 or 20 plays, but for our purposes here I am going to ignore that, other than to say; always be leery of people with wide variances in the “stars” attached to a pick, it is often another way to manipulate results. The method is often used by services that offer 4 or 5 different levels of service so that 1 or 2 will look like a winner at any given time, and those are the 1 or 2 they will quote in the advertising. The oldest and possibly best attitude is that if you can’t win at 1 unit per pick, you probably aren’t a winner at all and the rest is just manipulation.

Observation: During the early part of my work career I trained a lot of apprentices. I always found it better, or at least more comfortable, to train raw rookies as opposed to some with “a little experience.” The basic reason was that way I avoided the probability of having to retrain out some bad habits or techniques the kid may have learned from someone else. So; a lot of guys here are trying to gain some handicapping insight or training. That’s OK, just be careful who you listen to and ignore. That being said, what would I choose for an “apprentice” or raw rookie to bring from the ground up? Frankly, I would not care if that person (ladies eligible) had any sports or wagering knowledge at all. I would start with a fully trained Actuarial. One of those folks employed by insurance companies to determine the true probability of any given thing happening. All of gambling is a match of true probability versus quoted odds, so that being out of the way, we could progress quickly to the true impact of any given stat or condition on the probability of it affecting the outcome. Anyone here an actuarial?

Best Of Luck 2 All

Very good post Keyelement..

Last season I found myself following different cappers each time and as a result lost money.

I will decide to pick just one capper this time but I guess I am impatient to want to start following from day 1 as opposed to monitoring for the first month or so then picking one

diop: You could easily choose 3 or more to chart while following 1 from day 1 (March 31). You would be in action immediately, but your mind would be open to change. Being open minded is something not seen often on posting forums.

Good Stuff.

A good read, hopefully will help people to make better informed decisions and not just jump on bandwagons

Put your ego aside and tail somebody if they are better than you. Plain and simple.

The stupidest comment I have read here is cap your own games. And I've read that hundreds of times. Why the hell should I try to cap a college football game when I know for a fact 100% that there is somebody out there better than me and will make me more money than I will make myself? It makes zero sense.

People that pop up late, or throughout the day, especially with late games on the West Coast, are people that are not getting their work done efficiently and may by necessity not be getting deeply enough into their analysis of their choices.

Line ups are not usually posted in the early morning. So people who are making plays the night before or early in the morning have no idea whats leading up to game time, and what the manager is thinking. So this statement is not accurate. Most people when playing baseball need to do the homework early and if they feel comfortable with any line up the team can put out there they can make a pick. However many teams do not have the same line up every day. What happens when there's a bench player that's been sitting for a week waiting for his start, now his team faces a pitcher in which hes hitting .600.  A person making a pick "early" wouldn't get that info or may not have seen him inserted into the 2 hole. Now he plays against him and he comes up in the 3rd and hits a 3 run bomb. ooopss didn't see that one coming. People who make picks early are just trying to sell garbage they "hope" is a good pick throughout the day. Sometimes the best picks are the picks made 5 minutes before the first pitch.

With all that said I like your write up. I just had to pick this part apart because I felt you dropped off a bit right there. Maybe you rushed it...


I do my homework, I do the research, I make good picks and I can win for you. Ill write up my opinions (sometimes i write too much) and more times then not, they seem to work out. Send me a message and i can add you to the list of people i send my info too. If i lose, you can follow my name on this site and bash all you want. Don't play my picks, just read and follow and see what happens. Maybe I catch a streak and you jump on board. Baseball is a game of runs.

BigGame90: I can see your point too, but official lineups often are not available until 20 minutes before game time. The person posting, and the one intending to follow, would have a very hard time being available at a precise time like that on a consistent basis, especially if the follower is attempting to to chart 5 to 10 handicappers Most good handicappers (posters) have a feel for that or consider it heavily, like a day game after a night game when one or more veterans are likely to get the day off. Some guys even post a conditional pick, like "going to play team A if players abc and xyz are out for Team B." Some things are hard for both capper and follower to make an allowance for, but the burden is greater on the potential follower because he probably can not monitor the board all day waiting for 3, 4, 5 separate posts. Nothing is perfect and that one is hard hard to handle.
BOL 

my ? would be why--just dont see the fun or excitement invovled in following someone else thruout the season,,your coin, your call--natch--no way for me,,I want to make my own plays

Awsome thread....

I understand one's desire to make his own plays in each sport he bets, and if you are doing this strictly for entertainment and capping is the part that entertains you (as opposed to making money per se) then that person shouldn't bother to tail... obviously. 

However, why increase your risk of loss by sticking to your own capping when others are demonstrably better in a given sport, year in year out...? 

If winning  is what matters to you you'd be a damn fool not to seriously consider tailing those who specialize in a given sport and do DAMN well at it on a consistent basis IMO.  To take it even further, there are some guys who can bang out the totals for a profit but can't pick sides to save their life ... I see this time and again - check out the contest pages and most guys will be way up in one or the other but also way down in the other category lol... Anyway, good idea for a thread, glad to see it here. 

Thank you all for your contributions. I just wanted to defend the guys that are looking for one or more handicappers to follow for the season so they can turn a substantial profit. Those guys should not be turned off by the threads suggesting a DIY attitude.

Not everyone here on Covers or any other forum should:
Tear down his transmission if it is making noise,
Slaughter a steer if he wants a good steak,
Attempt high wire walking, or,
Cap his own games.

I think if the dedicated follower will just track 5 to 10 handicappers through April, possibly May or June, and chart them by return on risk, he can have a very enjoyable and profitable season, while learning more himself from the write ups by those handicappers.

Most folks are competent these days in Excel and it is very easy to set up charts as I have suggested. If anyone that has decided to do this needs suggestions for the chart I will be glad to help. Just post the request here or private message me and we will get it going. In any case, I hope now that there will be fewer guys that feel some sort of stigma about being followers. Only one author wrote War And Peace, but millions of readers have enjoyed it without feeling they could do it themselves.
BOL

Great stuff, KeyElement: Nobody likes to be talked down to or made to feel inferior. I've been betting pro and college football and cbb for a long time and I've done well over the years, but I still listen to other successful cappers.  As for betting baseball I'm smart enough to know being an avid fan for years, and being a veteran gambler in those other sports, does not make me a competent bb capper. For someone like me there are many benefits to tailing, Learning the complexities of bb betting while at the mercy of my book on a trial and error, learn as you go approach, would be, potentially, financial suicide. I've recently stated betting pro bb and have been tailing a poster named Bodio, along with a couple others, and have done quite well. My point in relating all this is if anyone that might be hesitant to tail, for whatever reason, such as ego or being told to 'do it yourself' forget that shit. Tailing can hasten the learning curve, save or win you money. A smart bettor uses all the tools, information, whatever at his disposal. IMHO and thank you for your post.

If you were offered $10000 to get the ball in the basket from the line and you had the choice of taking the throw yourself or having LeBron take it for you, which way would you go?

Nevertheless I still like backing my own picks - probably more fool me!

I prefer to make my own plays. I feel I have a strong knowledge of baseball and will live and die with my own picks. If you don't understand handicapping the game then maybe this sport isn't for you. But thats just my opinion. I mean, I know nothing about horse racing, so I wouldn't just start betting ponies and tailing somebody else.

Last season I was on fire in April and May, I basically reached all my season goals in the first 2 months after a hot start.

Well, from June through September, everything sank, and I ended up losing money.

Now, I didn't post plays but if I did I'm sure most would have started tailing me after my successful start.........but they would have tailed after I reached my peak and would of tailed my downfall.

Lets face it. Everybody has ups and downs, hot and cold streaks. So, my question is if your going to tail, how do you know when to jump in and when to jump out.

JoeKool: "Lets face it. Everybody has ups and downs, hot and cold streaks. So, my question is if your going to tail, how do you know when to jump in and when to jump out."

The original and still operative suggestion was to chart 5 to 10 cappers by Return On Risk and I would think it would become obvious to the follower who is hot and who is not. Given 10 at the start, 3 or 4 would separate themselves from the pack by June and it is unlikely all would streak at the same time, up or down, win or lose. It is also unlikely that since the follower started with 5-10 good reputation cappers they would stay down and blow early profits, as will definitely happen with those that just got a little lucky at the start of the season, or those that were touting their W-L record or "Units", both of which I pointed out were poor guidelines compared to Return On Risk, which is infallible.

What it really boils down to is: If you are not a good handicapper, don't bother to handicap the games, handicap the handicappers.
JMHO. BOL

Phenomenal post, Key. Look forward to your stuff this year.

What it really boils down to is: If you are not a good handicapper, don't bother to handicap the games, handicap the handicappers. 

I haven't shot a basketball in 6 years, but I would put my money on myself in a FT competition with LeBron.  It boggles my mind that professionals can't all shoot 90%.

hey key i found your article very useful...and i agree with a lot of your points due to the fact that i also tail cappers...i friend requested you so i can send you a PM about a few questions regarding your thread here...hope you still sign on here! thanks dude!

Tailing is fun and dangerous.  I work a lot and I remember I was doing crazy hours at the beginning of the NBA season and found a thread one night with some guys that were making these insane 1Q and half totals in NBA.  I briefly checked his last thread and he seemed to do well so I thought, this is great, I'll wait till he posts the plays and tail him.