Today Is Saturday, And WTF Am I Doing!?!?!

Phillies -121
Risking 2.42 units to win 2 units
Come on fellas...the Mets proved last night why they're not worth shit on the road. That loss bumped them to 21-36 on the road while the Phillies are now 33-17. Johan gets the nod to stop the bleeding for the Mets. He started off the season with a great start then a piss poor start. Then he strung a few great starts together and BAM...he gives up 10 in Philly and he starts to backtrack for 2 starts. Then he's dominant again. Then terrible again, then dominant again. See a pattern here? He's coming off 2 non quality starts. In his defense though, he was pretty dominant against the Braves aside from a few mistakes. The problem is that he was kept in to throw 115 pitches and he seems to have had problems bouncing back after throwing that many pitches. He has an ERA of 7.40 in starts after he's thrown 114 or more pitches. Note that it's inflated a bit because one of those starts were where he gave up 10 in Philly. So make this 4 starts, 3 non quality and 1 solid start following games where he's thrown 114 or more. This will be his first time facing the Phillies since that little outburst they had on him. I'm sure he'll come in with adrenaline but will that be enough? Will his 2.98 road ERA be enough? Will the fact that the Mets average only 3.2 runs per game in his starts hurt him? Or does the fact that the 3.2 runs per game goes down to 2.5 when he's on the road. Maybe the Mets being 3-9 will send a message. The Mets only hit .233 v lefties on the road this season and only .196 in their last 10 against lefties. Hamels, is indeed, a lefty. Now, he's coming off a few rough starts, like Johan only not as bad, but he has the better offense on his side and the fact that he's home. Also, the fact that he goes deep into games really adds to this play. He's gone at least 7 innings in 9 of his last 11 starts. And while he has 4 straight no decisions, the Phillies have won his last 5 starts but they are only 5-4 in his home starts on the season. It's certainly not his fault though as he has a 2.90 ERA at home this season. The Mets have been just playing horrible baseball lately. Remember when they were having a promising season? Where did they go? What happened? They're 8-19 in their last 27 starts with just 1 series win (at home against St. Louis). The Phillies are on a different streak. They've won 13 of their last 15. And, even without Howard, Utley and Victorino, this is still a much better offensive ballclub who went into Flushing at the end of May and got swept by a score of 16-0. Maybe not on paper, but compared to what was performing back then. The Phillies are raking against lefties lately as they've hit them at a .329 clip in their last 10 games. Add the fact that they're 32-17 at home and we have a nice, small lined, play.

Hell freezes over. G&G posts a play before the result is already known. This'll be interesting.