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Tue (7/2): "The Good, the Bad, the Ugly"

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Posted: #1
Good: 

BAL (-120)

Hammel is 6-1 AWAY this season.  CWS is 1-5 in Danks’ last 6 starts.  If Hammel implodes early, rest assured that BAL has the bats to compensate for it.

Bad:  MIN Bullpen

NYY (+110)

MIN’s bullpen allowed 7 runs in the last 2 innings last night after Diamond gave them a quality start.  The same thing will probably happen to Deduno.  Although NYY is just 1-7 in the last 8 Hughes starts, Hughes has limited opponents to 6 hits or less in 6 of those 8 outings.  NYY could have easily been 4-4 in that span had they provided just 4 runs of support for him in 3 of those games.  Hughes pitched well for 8.0 IP in his last start, a 2-0 L to TEX.  MIN is batting just .212 vs. Hughes in his 4 career meetings.

Ugly:  DET Bullpen

TOR (+130)

DET is reeling right now.  I’m going to quit trying to chase a DET road win.  Wang is 5-0 in 6 career starts vs. DET.  He got rocked at Fenway in his last outing, but now he will be back at HOME.  DET is 1-7 in Fister’s last 10 starts.  TOR has shown that they can still run up the score without Encarnacion and Lind in the line-up.    

“Trouble with the Curve” (O/U): 

LAD/COL U9

The UNDER 9 is 13-1-3 in Kershaw’s starts and 2-0 in Oswalt’s starts this season. 

PHI/PIT O7.5

The OVER 7.5 is 7-0 in Pettibone’s last 7 starts and 3-0 in Locke’s first start of each month this season. 

 
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Posted: #2
I know you do not pick huge favorites becaues juice is far too much but what big dogs do you give the best chance to win tomorrow. For me it is marlins (and I hope I am wrong) and rockies.

I have red sox nats and diamondbacks as near locks. I am a little nervous if dbacks will come to the park tomorrow thinking about their massiave mess up tonight but I can not bet against corbin.
 
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Posted: #3

Adding chalk plays: 

TEX (-165)

Saunders is 1-5 AWAY and 3-9 vs. TEX in his career.  Grimm is 2-0 vs. SEA in his career.

PIT (-170)

PIT is 5-1 in the last 6 of the series.  Locke is practically unhittable at HOME.  Pettibone is 1-2 in 6 AWAY starts with a 6.39 ERA, 1.68 WHIP, .328 BAA. 

CIN (-155)

SF is 10-20 when DOG AWAY.  CIN is 25-13 when FAVE HOME.  With Sandoval struggling, where are SF’s runs going to come from?

UPSET ALERT: 

HOU (+1.5)

Price is back, but TB was just 2-8 when Price started.  Price had a 4.56 ERA, 1.36 WHIP AWAY before he went on the DL.  In his only meeting with HOU, he posted a 9.00 ERA, 1.80 WHIP, .300 BAA.  Bedard is undefeated at HOME and has an 11-5 record vs. TB in his career.  HOU is 4-2 in Bedard’s last 6 starts.  The +1.5 RL is 7-2 in Bedard’s last 9 starts.  HOU has to snap their losing streak sometime…

 
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Posted: #4
Quote Originally Posted by ineverwinbutitry:

I know you do not pick huge favorites becaues juice is far too much but what big dogs do you give the best chance to win tomorrow. For me it is marlins (and I hope I am wrong) and rockies.

I have red sox nats and diamondbacks as near locks. I am a little nervous if dbacks will come to the park tomorrow thinking about their massiave mess up tonight but I can not bet against corbin.

I love the Red Sox and Nats tomorrow but at (-200) and (-265), what are you really winning?  You almost have to play the alternate -2.5 run line to get any value out of them.  Corbin will pitch well again, but ARI's pen may blow it for him so I would stay away.

CHC (+170) with Feldman on the mound vs. Griffin could be a good upset opportunity.  CHC just won their series @ SEA pretty convincingly.  

I wouldn't worry about Koehler repeating what he did @ SF.  He still leaves too many pitches hanging for HR's.  ATL will run it up on him at HOME.  Medlen has been pretty solid as of late.


 
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Posted: #5
rmb5w i been on here for quiet a bit and looking at people picks to see what I like a lot........i wanna put 2k to 3k on a game in the next 2-3 days but im looking for the right game(looking for a SLIGHT underdog)

I looked at the dodgers on wed with Greinke pitching vs Colorado or STL or Miller pitching vs the Angels !!!

Any insight ???

Thanks
 
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Posted: #6
Quote Originally Posted by brnada109:

rmb5w i been on here for quiet a bit and looking at people picks to see what I like a lot........i wanna put 2k to 3k on a game in the next 2-3 days but im looking for the right game(looking for a SLIGHT underdog)

I looked at the dodgers on wed with Greinke pitching vs Colorado or STL or Miller pitching vs the Angels !!!

Any insight ???

If you want a slight DOG, tomorrow you can get TOR (+120) at HOME vs. a struggling DET road team.  I wouldn't lay that much money on a slight DOG AWAY.  I would try to find a slight DOG HOME.  

Chatwood has been quietly pitching lights out this season.  Miller has struggled lately, losing 3 of his last 4 overall and 3 of his last 4 AWAY.  I wouldn't feel comfortable with either LAD/STL tomorrow.

Thanks
 
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by brnada109:

rmb5w i been on here for quiet a bit and looking at people picks to see what I like a lot........i wanna put 2k to 3k on a game in the next 2-3 days but im looking for the right game(looking for a SLIGHT underdog)

I looked at the dodgers on wed with Greinke pitching vs Colorado or STL or Miller pitching vs the Angels !!!

Any insight ???

Thanks

If you want a slight DOG, tomorrow you can get TOR (+120) at HOME vs. a struggling DET road team.  I wouldn't lay that much money on a slight DOG AWAY.  I would try to find a slight DOG HOME.  

Chatwood has been quietly pitching lights out this season.  Miller has struggled lately, losing 3 of his last 4 overall and 3 of his last 4 AWAY.  I wouldn't feel comfortable with either LAD/STL tomorrow.
 
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Posted: #8
Thanks a lot buddy well im looking for a game in the next several days the best one possible its tough and its my last 3k in my betting account and I wanna hit it and take it out....But damn its a tough decision on what I wanna lay it all on 
 
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Posted: #9

Adding: 

CHC/OAK U7.5

The UNDER 7.5 is 10-1 in Griffin’s last 11 starts and 3-1 in 3 of Feldman’s last 4 AWAY starts.

 
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Posted: #10
i really love the Baltimore pick..thats the one that jumped at me the most...im trying really hard to just do one game a day for the start of july...what you think go all in baltimore..i just dont see the whitesox matching with them at all...
 
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Posted: #11

BOL tonight!!!

T-9

 
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Posted: #12
Love your picks tomorrow and reasonings, as always. BOL on your wagers sir, and thanks for the daily posts! 
 
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Posted: #13
GL RMB
 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by xFoxHoundx:

i really love the Baltimore pick..thats the one that jumped at me the most...im trying really hard to just do one game a day for the start of july...what you think go all in baltimore..i just dont see the whitesox matching with them at all...
 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by xFoxHoundx:

i really love the Baltimore pick..thats the one that jumped at me the most...im trying really hard to just do one game a day for the start of july...what you think go all in baltimore..i just dont see the whitesox matching with them at all...

I agree with lil_b_swag.  The reason the line is so close is because Danks has a 2.11 ERA, 0.70 WHIP, .187 BAA at HOME in his 3 starts.  You don't want to get caught with your entire bankroll locked up in a tie game in the 7+ innings with either O'Day or Johnson in relief.  Find a HOME team for laying that kind of bet.
 
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Posted: #16
excellent insight and write ups!! Thank you!
 
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Posted: #17
I generally stay away from parlays but are placing any today rmb?
 
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Posted: #18
Yep. Pairing up most of them. The 3 chalk picks will be in a 3-teamer. Also, parlaying RL's of the chalk picks for more value. My biggest parlay is BAL, TEX RL, PIT.
 
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Posted: #19
Why not play Bal, Tex, and Pitt all on the runline?
 
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Posted: #20
BALTIMORE  
 
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by kev808:

Why not play Bal, Tex, and Pitt all on the runline?

Because...

Hammel is just 2-6 when covering the -1.5 RL in his last 8 starts.

Locke is just 3-7 when covering the -1.5 RL in his last 10 starts.
 
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Posted: #22
good luck today.  

I on the o's, toronto, fish but on opposite side of the stros
 
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Posted: #23
Roy O has given up 9 ER in his last 11 IP. I'll go with LAD TT Over
 
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Posted: #25

Cumpton is now pitching in place of Locke so What do you think of the Over and Pit line due to the change or are they both no plays.

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