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Tuesday sticks

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Posted: #1
YTD
Sides 21-10
Totals 6-9
+22.75 units

Okay

Someone needed to tell me Heath Bell pitches for the TB Rays.  Friends don't let friends bet on Heath Bell.  I've seen a stripper shoot a ping pong ball out of her hoo ha with better accuracy (and velocity) than this sorry excuse of a relief pitcher ever could.  Heath mother fkking Bell pitches for the Rays.  That's a handy little bit of information right there. 

Lost 0.7 units (aka 35 bucks...1 unit for me is 50 clams..I'm a little fish) Monday after whiffing on the night games 0-2.  That ended a nice little 4 day win streak I had going.  Time to start another one.

No plays yet but early musings have me thinking Nova at home against Chen looks enticing.  Another game getting my nipples hard is the Red Sox vs. Rangers round 2, fight!  I can take the Red Sox off my auto fade list...for now.  What's interesting is both teams hit lefties very well and there's two lefties on the bump.  The string of Fenway unders might be coming to an end.  BUT...Martin Perez is a ground ball pitcher which might...might...limit the damage the Sox do to him.  Doubront is more of a fly ball pitcher and if Texas remembers that they aren't wearing Padres uniforms, Doubront might get hurt tomorrow.

I welcome anyone's thoughts and tidbits about that game...and any game for that matter. 

G'night


 
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Posted: #2
Oh, and I also like the Nats tomorrow even if the juice is pulpy.  The Marlins are 5-2 and yet the books open up a line at -183ish...that tells us what the books think of that 5-2 record.  The Marlins are still the Marlins and they were abysmal vs. lefties last season. 

As I go to bed I can't help but feel like that Yankees line stinks.  Chen usually loses to the Yankees....B'More usually loses to Nova...the Baltimore offense hasn't looked like it should yet....and the line opens at -130.  It has my spidey sense tingling.
 
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Posted: #3
First play:

Rangers team total over ? 4 units

I'm guessing it will be 4.5.

The Rangers own Doubront.  Here's the last 3 pitching lines for Doubront vs. Texas:

2013 @ TEX - 3.2 IP, 12 hits, 1BB, 6ER (Sox lose 7-0)
2012 @ TEX - 5 IP, 8 hits, 3BB, 6ER (Sox lose 9-1)
2011 vs. TEX - 0.1 IP, 2hits, 2BB, 3ER


 
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Posted: #4
TEX ML +130 (3/3.9).

I hardly ever make a wager the night before but with public money starting to come in a little on the Texas side I think this is as good as this line is going to get for me.  Pretty self explanatory pick considering my first wager.
 
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Posted: #5
GL today buddy. Taking the Yanks early
 
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Posted: #6
I am just getting going today, a little late for me but I will play a little devils advocate here. Haven't posted much last few days but first week ended nicely for me but yesterday was 1-2, first real losing baseball day. This game is no play for me but the Rangers numbers against Doubront are pretty much meaningless. Here are his numbers against Current Rangers that he might actually face today: Beltre 4-6 with 2 doubles, Moreland 3-9, Andrus 3-9, Arencibia 2-12 with a HR, Choo 0-4 and Prince 0-6.  The Red Sox only have 3 guys who have faced Martinez at all. Choo has never hit lefties well and Fielder is just declining period....the signs were there the 2nd half of last season in him. Something else with the Rangers the many are overlooking is the defense is a real downgrade with Fielder in place of Moreland and whoever at 2nd base for now in place of Kinsler. Arencibia is a downgrade from AJ...

Marlins just might be a little better than many think and Fernandez, Eovaldi and Tom Koehler will give them a chance to win on any given day. That said Henderson Alvarez is not one of those 3 and facing Gio, good luck with that. The thing you must consider here is that at -180 you must win 64.28 percent of the time just to break even. Do you have this match up being won by the Nationals at a higher clip than that? The answer for me on this one is yes I do but I rarely lay that kind of juice and Likely to have a couple of other games with less risk that I like more but like I said I am getting a late start today.

Neither Chen nor Nova was very impressive in their first starts. I didn't watch Nova's just have the box score and it is worse than what his results were. I watched Chen and he just didn't have his normal movement and they were able to slap the ball around on him. The ball did have eyes against him as there were several seeing eye just barely hits, but they were hits none the less and he wasn't missing anyone's bat.

Best of luck today.

 
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Posted: #7
I can tell you for sure I will be on the Brewers, simply put I have Lohse ranked  higher than Kendrick and can't pass him up at plus 102.
 
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Posted: #8
Tigermike I love hearing your take on things.  You make a great point about Doubront's history vs. Texas being meaningless, although I wouldn't say it's completely irrelevant.  Texas has been and still is a good lineup against LHP.  They're batting .304 against LHP so far in 2014.

In 2013 here's what current Rangers did against lefties:

Beltre .325 with 8HR
Rios .313 with 7 HR
Fielder .292 with 9 HR
Andrus .273 with 3 HR
Moreland .241 with 3 HR an 14 doubles

Choo is going to be a liability if Texas starts him at the top of the order today but they still have 5 batters that can do damage to lefties.  I still like my chances with Texas today.

I don't like the Yankees anymore.  Once again the guys that roughed up Chen in the past are no longer on the Yankees.  I'm getting the feeling that my wagers on Texas and Baltimore last night were 1 day early, as I can see them both cashing in today.  Just to spite the books I might put a small play in on the O birds.

As for the Marlins game the old me wouldn't want to lay that kind of juice.  The new me is different.  I like taking dogs but if I like a favorite enough I'll lay the juice no problem now.  The Nats are 9-1 in Nationals Park in their last 10 games and I'm not afraid of Alvarez.  Some of the other Marlins pitchers yes, but not Alvarez.
 
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Posted: #9

loved your heath bell post...had the rays.worked  a nightshift and saw the highlights in the morning.......wanted a   also

 

bol Pasteur

 
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Posted: #10
Updated Card:

TEX ML +130 (3/3.9)
TEX TT OVER 4 -115 (3.45/3) 
adding:
NYY TT UNDER 4.5 -135 (2.7/2)
WAS ML -174 (3.48/2)

In the last 8 games Chen started vs. the Yanks the NYY scored 3, 3, 6, 2, 8, 4, 2, 4 runs for those games.  So the TT over 4.5 would be 2-6, and I think they Yankees lineup is even less potent than it used to be.  The Yankees are batting .233 against lefties so far this season and are averaging 3.5 runs per game.  They've only hit 1HR in 7 games. 

And the Nats play we talked about earlier.  The Nats are 9-1 at home against the Marlins in their last 10, Gio was 3-0 against Miami last season with a 0.95 ERA, and Alvarez isn't a pitching I'm terribly afraid of (4.04 ERA vs. Wash in 2013).  I wouldn't take the run line in this game, just bet the ML.  A win is a win.

That might be it for me today.  After a losing day I think it's best to just bet what you really like and get back on track!

 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by cjm2008:

GL today buddy. Taking the Yanks early


I'd go easy on that one if I were you buddy.  They Yankees aren't what they used to be and they lost their closer now. 
 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by Tigermike1975:

I can tell you for sure I will be on the Brewers, simply put I have Lohse ranked  higher than Kendrick and can't pass him up at plus 102.


I like Lohse as well, I'm just not sure how many bets I want to make today.  I tend to go a little conservative after a losing day.
 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by trainwreck66:

loved your heath bell post...had the rays.worked  a nightshift and saw the highlights in the morning.......wanted a   also

 

bol Pasteur


You too buddy   I like my chances today

 
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Posted: #14
Great thread boys...
 
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Posted: #15
BOL
 
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Posted: #16
Nova has been fantastic at Yankee stadium, Like the Yankees early!
 
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Posted: #17
Pasteur you are quickly someone I enjoy discussing the game with as well. Can't fault the Rangers play, it is the only play on that game, no way would I lay the wood with Doubront....I jumped on the O's along with the rest of the free world apparently with how far that line has moved...beat the market nicely with the Brewers now hopefully they come through. Nats sure do look good and I agree no run line...I rarely play run lines anyhow. I may find my way on them as well, but I want to get these first two in first. I am making my way through the night games now...
 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by Tigermike1975:

I can tell you for sure I will be on the Brewers, simply put I have Lohse ranked  higher than Kendrick and can't pass him up at plus 102.


Did that line change?  I currently show Lohse -110 and Kendrick +102
 
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Posted: #19

Quote Originally Posted by Tigermike1975:

Pasteur you are quickly someone I enjoy discussing the game with as well. Can't fault the Rangers play, it is the only play on that game, no way would I lay the wood with Doubront....I jumped on the O's along with the rest of the free world apparently with how far that line has moved...beat the market nicely with the Brewers now hopefully they come through. Nats sure do look good and I agree no run line...I rarely play run lines anyhow. I may find my way on them as well, but I want to get these first two in first. I am making my way through the night games now...

im starting to think that the balt yanks over is the play rather than the side (rlm)

 

 
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by Pasteur:

   I'm getting the feeling that my wagers on Texas and Baltimore last night were 1 day early, as I can see them both cashing in today. 


I thought long and hard about Tex last night but just couldn't back Scheppers making his 2nd start and attempting the reliever to starter transition.

Gotta tell ya, that was an uphill bet all the way as Scheppers was in trouble all night long and he did a nice job of calming down and getting out of jambs, but that game could have gotten out of hand very early.  He was fortunate.

Rangers bats still haven't woken up as well.
 
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Posted: #21
Alt Tiger Fan: I jumped that last night when Brewers were -102 most places and I had an extremely favorable line compared to what was available. It was -110 Phillies Brewers Even when I got up this morning and has moved towards the Brewers all morning.
 
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Posted: #22
GL today Pasteur!
 
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Posted: #23
Thanks punk...gl to you as well my friend.

Mike I'm going to tag along with you on the brew crew. I'm not posting it as a play for me because I'm not sure I'd play it without you calling attention to it. But the pitching match up as well as the offensive probability both go to Milwaukee and the price is right.

Looking for one more dog play to add to the card. I have my eye on Arizona and houston. It will probably be houston. Toronto can't hit lefties and I feel there's no way Toronto should be laying that much cheddar against anyone, even the stros. Thoughts?
 
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Posted: #24
Oh and I also put a sprinkle on the orioles last minute. So far so good...
 
 
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Posted: #25
Good stuff hopefully O's keep rolling and Brewers come through...

My biggest concern with Houston is they were dominated pretty well by Wilson yesterday, a lefty who moves the ball around. Now they face another lefty who moves the ball around...Oberholtzer we have a small major league sample and he was relatively effective last year but I do have some concerns. His k/9 in the minors is lower then I care for and it is a key number that I look towards in projecting major league succes. At best I see him as a back of the rotation type, but we shall see. He throws strikes and that may not be the best thing facing the launchers Toronto throws up there. Buehrle has historically been a slow starter. Line is definitely too high but the game is a pass in my opinion.

Arizona I have no interest in Cahill whatsoever right now and I see the Giants with nice edges in Starting pitcher and bullpen today...factor in the way they have been swinging the bats and I would say Giants or no play...I am actually considering parlaying the Giants with the Nats. It is something I do very infrequently, as I am fully aware of the dangers and carnage parlays can cause to a bankroll but I will once or twice a month play a two teamer with bigger type favorites. In this instance I feel like the Nats are Very very likely to win and I can toss the Giants in try and and turn 1 unit into 1.6 or so....

Not a ton I am liking on the night games initially here, still have to run through the west coast night caps but life is getting in the way a bit today so I am way behind. The Mets maybe with Colon in a first five play, as I will not be playing the Mets full game very often with their bullpen make up, and especially not against the Braves. I don't think Harang is -130 to Colon, his great first start notwithstanding..

Mostly likely I am just staying with O's and Brewers and possibly the parlay I mentioned, and maybe a west coast night cap.

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