Tuesdays MLB Tips

By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com

Hottest team: Astros (10-2 past 12)

The Houston Astros doubled up the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim at the Big A Monday night, as Collin McHugh recorded a quality start. They turn to 6-foot-7 veteran SP Scott Feldman to make the start in the second game of the series, as SP Lance McCullers (blister) was scratched from his start. Houston is still locked in as a road favorite, and the public likes them at about a 60-40 clip. Houston has won four of their past five road games, and they're 16-5 in their past 21 games against a team with a losing overall record. Their hot streak will be put to the test, however, as the 'Stros are 0-6 in Feldman's past six starts.

Coldest team: Nationals (2-7 past 9)

The Washington Nationals picked up an 11-4 victory to kick off their homestand, but it was just their second win in the past nine games. The first-place Nats are so desperate to hang onto the perch in the National League East that they pulled the trigger and called up top prospect SP Lucas Giolito to make the start Tuesday against the Mets. The Nationals have been equally ice-cold against the Mets at home, dropping five of the past six meetings with their divisional rivals at Nationals Park.

Hottest pitcher: Zack Greinke, Diamondbacks (10-3, 3.61 ERA)

Greinke and the Arizona Diamondbacks look to rebound after being humbled 8-0 in the opening game of the series Monday night. Greinke is the perfect stopper, as he enters 4-0 with a 1.47 ERA in five starts over the past 30 days while striking out 31 batters in 39 innings with a .180 opponent batting average and 0.85 WHIP. Arizona is 12-2 in Greinke's past 14 assignments, including 4-0 in his past four starts at home. In addition, the Snakes are 7-0 in Greinke's past seven outings against a team with a losing overall record.

Coldest pitcher: Chris Archer, Rays (4-10, 4.70 ERA)

Archer leads the majors with 10 losses through 16 starts, and he has a career-worst 4.70 ERA and 1.43 WHIP despite ranking among the best in the majors in strikeouts per nine innings ratio (K/9). To make matters worse, Archer is 1-7 with a 5.67 ERA in 12 career outings against the Boston Red Sox, his most losses against any opponent. In his only meeting against Boston this season, he was tuned up for six earned runs, eight hits and three walks in just 4 1/3 innings in a loss back on April 20.

Biggest UNDER run: Cardinals (7-3-2 past 12)

The Cardinals have had a little bit of a power outage on their current road trip, and they have scratched out four or fewer runs in 10 of their past 12 games. The under is also 5-2 in their past seven matchups against a right-handed starter, while going an impressive 35-15-5 in their past 55 against American League Central squads. Total bettors will also be interested in the fact the under is 4-0-2 in their past six trips west on Interstate 70 to Kansas City, and 8-1-4 in the past 13 meetings overall between these Show-Me State rivals.

Biggest OVER run: Rockies (7-0 past seven)

The Colorado Rockies are enjoying a little home cooking, posting overs in each of their five home games, and seven straight games overall. They are averaging 8.8 runs per game over the past five, and with SP Eddie Butler on the hill another over result is in the offing. The over is 4-1-1 in his past six home starts, while the over is 10-3 in their past 13 games at Coors Field against left-handed starting pitchers. The over is also an impressive 17-5 in Colorado's past 22 interleague home games against teams with a winning overall mark.

Matchup to watch: Mariners vs. Pirates

The Seattle Mariners host the Pittsburgh Pirates in the second game of their interleague series. The Mariners are two games under .500 in 36 games at Safeco Field this season, but they came alive with a series win against the St. Louis Cardinals over the weekend. The M's were resting on an off day Monday, while the Pirates were busy playing an afternoon game against the Dodgers in Pittsburgh to conclude their wrap-around series at PNC Park. The Pirates have dropped their past five on the road, and they're a dismal 3-12 in their past 15 against right-handed starting pitching. The Mariners have won five of the past seven starts by Hisashi Iwakuma, and they're 8-2 in their past 10 interleague battles.

Betcha didn’t know: The biggest reason for the struggles of the Minnesota Twins this season has been their inability to win inside their own division. The Twins are a dismal 5-22 in their past 27 games against American League Central Division foes. Something's gotta give against the Chicago White Sox, as the Pale Hose are just 5-17 in their past 22 games inside the division. Looking at head-to-head statistics, trends point to Chicago. The Twins have won just one of their past five trips to U.S. Cellular Field, and the Twins have dropped six in a row against the White Sox.

Biggest public favorite: Indians (-165) at Braves

Biggest public underdog: Cardinals (+115) at Royals

Biggest line move: Indians (+150 to +165) at Braves

MLB Tue Top UNDER pitchers: Quintana 2-13 O/U (Cws)... Eickhoff 4-11 O/U (Phi)... Sabathia 3-8 O/U (Nyy)... Harvey 5-10 O/U (Nym)...

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MLB Tue Top OVER pitchers: Wacha 11-4 O/U (Stl)... Iwakuma 10-5 O/U (Sea)... Anderson, Porcello 9-5 O/U (Mil, Bos)... Hamels 9-6 O/U (Tex).

V.King

The Indians are 0-11 RL after a road game in which they scored runs in at least five separate innings.

Killersports

The Mariners are 0-10 RL as a favorite in a series opener after allowing 6+ runs.

Killersports

he Twins are 11-0 RL in a series opener after a road game in which they hit more home runs than their opponent.

Killersports

The Brewers are 0-23 SU as a home dog when they won the last two games their starter started.

Killersports

The Brewers are 17-0 OU as a dog after a home loss in which they left more than 16 men on base and scored more than one run.

Killersports

The Tigers are 14-0 OU when their line is within 20 cents of pickem after a loss that dropped them to 500.

Killersports

The Marlins are 15-9-1 since Apr 28, 2016 as a dog, that is
15-9-1 o/u

The Cubs are 10-0 SU on the road vs a divisional opponent that is behind them in the standings.

Killersports

The Rangers are 22-10-1 since Sep 04, 2013 as a road favorite
that is 22-10-1 o/u

The Padres are 10-0 OU as a dog after being shutout on the road.

The Angels are 17-6 since May 12, 2016 at home
that is 17-6 o/u

They have scored 34 runs in 7 games - with two of those games against Arrieta and Hammel - on the current road trip. That's a power outage?

Harvey 4-12. Harvey UND 10-5. Cubs vs NLC 22-8. Cubs Tues 27-10. Lester 11-4. Lamb 5-14. Milw hm dog +110 to +150 8-21. Anderson 3-9.

Dod Tues 8-0. Greinke June hm 13-2. Phi dog 6-23. Hamels 20-6. Tex vs (L) 7-2. NYY hm dog off loss 4-17. Feldman rd 7-18 Feldman F5ML 3-12-4

Det IL OV 10-2. ATL dog vs team that won L2 games 12-6. Wacha OV 19-4. KC IL 36-18. KC hm 27-10. KC hm -100-150 48-18. KC off win 16-5.

Ventura hm 24-7. Happ 18-7. Happ F5ML 10-3-2. Colo IL 24-51. SD vs (R) 7-19. Pitt 5-15. Pitt IL rd 17-45. Sea IL 8-2.

Oak rd 10-21. SF 32-11. SF IL UND hm vs (R) 18-9-2. SF IL hm 20-9. Lincecum F5 OVER 14-3-1.

Atlanta has played much better since current manager, Snitker, took the reins. Atlanta is 17-22, including current runs of 10-8 and 8-4, after a terrible 9-28 start. Atlanta continues to struggle on this field with an 11-30 record in no small part because of a .634 OPS on this field which is 29th in MLB and over 100 points lower than the MLB home average of .743 OPS. Handing the ball to Wisler will not solve those Atlanta woes on this field. For, Wisler is 1-5 from this mound with a 4.45 ERA. In his most recent 5 outings, Wisler is 0-3 with a 4.60 ERA.

With the 8-3 victory over Atlanta on this field last night, Cleveland has now recorded 10 straight wins. There was a concern last night that they may have a letdown following (3) 3-game sweeps of AL rivals, CWS, Tampa Bay and Detroit, whom they defeated by combined final scores of 59-18. No such letdown occurred and Cleveland has now outscored their last 10 opponents 68-22 for an average margin of 6.8 to 2.2 RPG. In fact, the Tribe has scored 6 or more runs in each of their last 7 games.

With the recent run, Cleveland is now at 45-30 (.600) and is leading the AL Central by 5 games over Kansas City. The .756 YTD OPS and .684 bullpen OPS give Cleveland clear advantages in both of those categories. Kluber will look to continue his excellent run, buoyed by the outstanding starts of other Cleveland members of the rotation, including Bauer, who was dominant last night. In his last 7 starts, Kluber is 5-2, while for the year, he has posted an outstanding road OPS of .558. Kluber is also 10-2 with a 2.30 ERA vs. National League opponents. 

We comfortably make this MLB Pick on the run line, knowing that 18 of 22 Cleveland road wins have come by 2 or more runs, while 39 of 50 Atlanta losses have come by 2 or more runs, a number that is reinforced by the fact that in the last 2 years, 58 of 69 Atlanta losses have come by 2 or more runs.

J.Gavazzi