As expected, the San Diego 2nd half resurgence was short lived. After sweeping San Fran over the weekend, which had the best record in baseball, the Padres fell flat on their face with a 10-2 loss last night. Despite the euphoria of their weekend success, the long-term message to the team was made clear when they traded starting pitchers, Shields and then Pomeranz, prior to the All-Star Break. There is not much hope in this pitching matchup with Colin Rea toeing the rubber for the Padres. Rea has been sporadic at best this season with a 4.59 ERA. In his last outing vs. Arizona, he lasted just 4 2/3 IP allowing 4 runs and 8 baserunners. His road ERA is now a bloated 5.52. He has faced St. Louis twice, allowing 8 runs in 9 innings.
At the other end of the spectrum is St. Louis’ starter, Martinez. Suffering from an upper-respiratory infection, Martinez struggled in a trio of May starts, allowing 14 runs in 15 IP. Since that time, however, Martinez has been outstanding. In 8 outings, he has a dominant 1.02 ERA. His last start saw Martinez allow just 1 run in 5 IP vs. Milwaukee while authoring 11 Ks. In yesterday’s analysis, I mentioned that the BUY sign was still in effect for St. Louis. St. Louis currently has a record of 48-44, trailing the Cubs by 8 games for the NL Central lead and in the thick of the Wild Card race with Miami, the Mets, Pittsburgh and LA Dodgers. Yet, their OPS numbers tell quite a different story. St. Louis is No. 4 in batting with a .780 OPS and No. 5 in relief pitching with a .660 OPS. That means with their best starter Martinez on the mound, they should dominate every phase of tonight’s game against San Diego. There is plenty of room for improvement with a home field where they are 21-28, after posting an MLB-best (home wins) last season.
We are comfortable laying the runs, knowing that 41 of 48 St. Louis’ wins have come by 2 or more runs. I invite you to put the MLB odds in your favor and join me in my MLB pick on St. Louis again tonight.
J.Gavazzi
Tampa Bay has shown promise at times this year. Like in the beginning of June, when they had a 9-2 surge! It made their record commensurate with their OPS numbers. Since that time, however, it has been all doom and gloom. The Rays enter tonight on a 4-24 slide with no hope for the season with a 33-57 record, as one of 4 teams who are playing sub .400 ball. Tonight’s Tampa starter is Blake Snell, who is 1-4 with a 3.69 ERA. Snell comes off an outing on July 7th against LA Angels, in which he allowed just 2 runs in 6 IP. Control, however, has been a major issue for Snell, who has issued 17 free passes in 31 2/3 IP.
There is plenty incentive for Colorado, who has outperformed preseason expectations with their 43-49 record. The Rockies have won 3 of 4 since the All-Star break. With last night’s 7-4 victory, they boosted their home field record to 21-22. They will have plenty of incentive to get to the .500 mark at home when their best starter, Chatwood, takes the mound. His last trip to the mound saw Chatwood allow 4 runs in 5 IP against Philadelphia. That defeat, however, was only his 2nd loss since early May. Chatwood is still 8-5 for the season with a solid 3.29 ERA. Not bad for a pitcher who will make half his starts at mile-high altitude!
We are eager to make this play on the run line. 21 of 25 recent Tampa Bay losses have been by 2 or more runs. For Colorado, 36 of 43 victories, including 18 of 21 home wins, have been by 2 or more runs. I invite you to put the MLB odds in your favor and join me in my MLB picks on the Colorado Rockies tonight.
By J.Gavazzi
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