Tuesdays MLB Tips

• No player in the Yankees lineup has ever hit a home run off Lance McCullers Jr.
• The visiting team is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games in this matchup.
• The Yankees are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games in the playoffs.

Scoring stats point to some edges in this matchup. The game features the New York Yankees' No. 2-ranked scoring average of 5.25 runs per game, against a Houston Astros offense rated No. 1 and scoring 5.47 runs per game. The Yankees have averaged 8.93 hits per game to date this season, less than the Astros hitters have managed (9.74 per nine innings).

Pitching and defensive stats are important baseball handicapping betting factors and New York has the No. 3-ranked defense. In the other dugout, the Astros own the No. 9 mark in runs allowed.

1. The Yankees earned an 8-1 win in Game 3 behind three-run home runs by Todd Frazier (second inning) and Aaron Judge (fourth inning). They are 4-0 at home this postseason, compared to 1-4 on the road.
2. New York won comfortably in Game 3 despite eight walks issued by its pitchers, the franchise's most in a nine-inning postseason game since Game 1 of the 1978 ALCS versus the Royals (also eight).
3. After averaging 6.00 runs per game with a .333 batting average in the division series versus Boston, the Astros are averaging 1.67 runs with a .169 batting average through three games of the ALCS. They hit eight home runs in four games against the Red Sox, compared to one in three games versus the Yankees.
4. Jose Altuve's 11 career hits against Sonny Gray (11-for-30, .367) are the most all-time by any batter. He's hitting .481 this postseason, and has reached base safely (via hit, walk or hit-by-pitch) in all seven contests.
5. Lance McCullers Jr. will make his first start of the 2017 postseason after appearing in relief in Game 3 of the ALDS (3.0 IP, 3 H, 2 R). McCullers was winless over his last eight regular season starts, going 0-3 with an 8.03 ERA.
6. The Yankees are 16-4 since the All-Star break when Aaron Judge hits a home run, as he did in yesterday's 8-1 victory. Judge has homered (two), walked (seven) or struck out (21) in 30 of his 41 plate appearances this postseason.
7. Sonny Gray took the loss in Game 1 of the ALDS against Cleveland, allowing three runs in 3.0 innings. He is 4-3 with a 3.09 ERA in nine career starts against the Astros (all with Oakland).

• The Dodgers are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games against the Cubs.
• The total has gone UNDER in 6 of the Cubs’ last 7 games in the playoffs at home.
• The Dodgers are 7-1 SU in their last 8 games against right-handed starting pitchers.

Scoring stats point to some edges in this matchup. The game features the Chicago Cubs' No. 8-ranked scoring average of 4.98 runs per game, against a Los Angeles Dodgers offense rated No. 12 and scoring 4.78 runs per game. The Cubs have averaged 8.51 hits per game to date this season, more than the Dodgers hitters have managed (8.34 per nine innings).

Comparing defensive stats, Los Angeles owns the No. 2-rated road mark, allowing 3.83 runs per game on the highway. Chicago, on the other hand, rates No. 5 in scoring at home.

1. Teams with a 2-0 lead in a best-of-7 series all-time have gone on to win the series 84 percent of the time (67-13 record). The Dodgers are just 2-3 with such a lead in their history, however. And the Cubs are 0-5, with none of those series lasting more than five games.
2. Along with a three-game sweep of the Diamondbacks in the NLDS, the Dodgers have won their first five games of a postseason for the first time ever. They are the first NL squad to win their first five games in a postseason since the 2007 Rockies won seven straight.
3. The Cubs have just seven hits over the first two games of this series combined (.117 BA). That's tied for the fewest hits by any team all-time through the first two games of an LCS, along with the Twins in the 1969 ALCS (vs. Orioles).
4. Addison Russell's 19 career RBI in the postseason are the most all-time by a player before turning 24 years old. He surpassed Andruw Jones, who drove in 18 runs in the postseason when 23 or younger.
5. Kyle Hendricks threw 7.0 shutout innings against the Nationals in winning Game 1 of the NLDS, but gave up four runs on nine hits in 4.0 innings of a no-decision in Game 5. In two starts against the Dodgers in last year's NLCS, Hendricks allowed one run in 12.2 innings (0.71 ERA).
6. Justin Turner's three-run homer in the bottom of the ninth inning Sunday was the 50th walkoff homer in postseason history. It was just the second by a Dodger, along with Kirk Gibson's two-run shot off Oakland's Dennis Eckersley in Game 1 of the 1988 World Series.
7. Yu Darvish picked up his first career postseason win (in three starts) in Game 3 of the NLDS last week (5.0 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 7 K). His only career start against the Cubs came on July 16 last year with Texas (4.1 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 9 K, loss).

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading WWL:
Considering win order; ignoring site order: The team leading WWL irrespective of site order (Houston) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2017 NHL and NBA Finals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 306-76 (.801)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Semifinals round: 81-13 (.862)
series record, MLB only, all rounds: 32-12 (.727)
series record, MLB only, Semifinals round: 14-2 (.875)
Game 4 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 185-197 (.484)
Game 4 record, all best-of-7 sports, Semifinals round: 45-49 (.479)
Game 4 record, MLB only, all rounds: 25-19 (.568)
Game 4 record, MLB only, Semifinals round: 13-3 (.813)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1349 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2017 NHL and NBA Finals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading WWL @ HHV:
Considering win order; considering site order: The team leading WWL with site order HHV (Houston) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2017 NHL and NBA Finals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 258-51 (.835)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Semifinals round: 61-12 (.836)
series record, MLB only, all rounds: 25-9 (.735)
series record, MLB only, Semifinals round: 10-2 (.833)
Game 4 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 146-163 (.472)
Game 4 record, all best-of-7 sports, Semifinals round: 30-43 (.411)
Game 4 record, MLB only, all rounds: 18-16 (.529)
Game 4 record, MLB only, Semifinals round: 10-2 (.833)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1349 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2017 NHL and NBA Finals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 3: The New York Yankees hosted and defeated the Houston Astros 8-runs-1 to reduce the Houston Astros best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL series 1350 lead to 2-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Houston Astros have a series record of 1-0 and a Game 4 record of 1-0. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the New York Yankees have a series record of 8-4 and a Game 4 record of 9-3. The New York Yankees led the Houston Astros by eight runs after the first four innings of series 1350 Game 3. The eight-run lead after four full innings was the largest in a best-of-7 MLB Semifinals game since series 1020 Game 6, in which the host Boston Red Sox led the Cleveland Indians 10-runs-1 after three innings in the 2007 American League Championship Series. Trailing a best-of-7 MLB playoff series 2-games-1 (as they now do in series 1350), the New York Yankees own an 8-4 (.667) series record - among MLB/NBA/NHL teams to trail a best-of-7 playoff series 2-games-1 after three games (minimum five such series), only the NHL Carolina Hurricanes own a better series record (4-1 (.800) upon trailing 2-games-1). Series 1350 becomes the 1000th best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series to feature a 2-games-1 lead by one of the teams after three games. With the series 1350 Game 3 win, the New York Yankees end a franchise-record seven-game losing streak in best-of-7 MLB playoff competition (spanning the 2010, 2012, and 2017 American League Championship Series). In best-of-7 MLB playoff series, home teams winning Games 1-2 by one run each (such as the Houston Astros in series 1350) now have a perfect 0-6 Game 3 record.

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading 2-games-nil:
Ignoring win order; ignoring site order: The team leading 2-games-nil irrespective of site order (L.A. Dodgers) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2017 NHL and NBA Finals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 651-81 (.889)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Semifinals round: 165-14 (.922)
series record, MLB only, all rounds: 67-13 (.838)
series record, MLB only, Semifinals round: 25-3 (.893)
Game 3 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 350-382 (.478)
Game 3 record, all best-of-7 sports, Semifinals round: 85-94 (.475)
Game 3 record, MLB only, all rounds: 36-44 (.450)
Game 3 record, MLB only, Semifinals round: 12-16 (.429)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1349 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2017 NHL and NBA Finals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading 2-games-nil @ HH:
Ignoring win order; considering site order: The team leading 2-games-nil with site order HH (L.A. Dodgers) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2017 NHL and NBA Finals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 516-55 (.904)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Semifinals round: 114-13 (.898)
series record, MLB only, all rounds: 44-10 (.815)
series record, MLB only, Semifinals round: 13-3 (.813)
Game 3 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 262-309 (.459)
Game 3 record, all best-of-7 sports, Semifinals round: 54-73 (.425)
Game 3 record, MLB only, all rounds: 20-34 (.370)
Game 3 record, MLB only, Semifinals round: 4-12 (.250)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1349 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2017 NHL and NBA Finals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 2: The Los Angeles Dodgers hosted and defeated the Chicago Cubs 4-runs-1 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1351 lead of 2-games-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the Los Angeles Dodgers have a series record of 2-2 and a Game 3 record of 1-3. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the Chicago Cubs have a series record of 0-5 and a Game 3 record of 1-4. With their series 1351 Game 2 victory, the Los Angeles Dodgers improve their best-of-7 MLB playoff series Game 2 record to 5-0 upon having won Game 1. In the history of best-of-7 MLB Semifinals series, teams taking a 2-games-nil series lead irrespective of site have a 25-3 series record: One of the three series losers in that situation was the Los Angeles Dodgers, having led 2-games-nil but lost 4-games-2 to the St. Louis Cardinals in series 456 (the 1985 National League Championship Series). So it is that the 1985 St. Louis Cardinals set a favorable precedent for the Cubs in the 2017 National League Championship Series.

After Game 1: The Los Angeles Dodgers hosted and defeated the Chicago Cubs 5-runs-2 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1351 lead of 1-game-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Los Angeles Dodgers have a series record of 2-2 and a Game 2 record of 4-0. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Chicago Cubs have a series record of 1-9 and a Game 2 record of 5-5. With their series 1351 Game 1 victory, the Los Angeles Dodgers break a four-Game 1 losing streak in best-of-7 MLB playoff series. Trailing a best-of-7 MLB playoff series 1-game-nil, the Chicago Cubs have a 1-9 series record - the sole victory occurred in the Cubs' last such series (the 2016 MLB Finals, over the Cleveland Indians for the 2016 MLB championship).

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