Fellas, there's nothing fishy about this. In fact, the opening line was too high... the -118 was offensive to Vargas. This line should be in the -105 to -110 range in favor of San Francisco.
Notice how the line has already dipped to -105/-105 at most shops.
I was all over the Mariners at +110.
Fellas, there's nothing fishy about this. In fact, the opening line was too high... the -118 was offensive to Vargas. This line should be in the -105 to -110 range in favor of San Francisco.
Notice how the line has already dipped to -105/-105 at most shops.
I was all over the Mariners at +110.
Think of it this way...
Kershaw was just -135 on the road against Vargas... so how high do you think this line should be? -140? -145? You have Vogelsong power rated higher than Kershaw?
Based off a -105/-105 neutral line, home field is worth 15 cents... meaning if all things are equal (pitchers, lineups, bullpen), you get a -120/+110 line for the home team. If Kershaw is facing off against Vogelsong, you're probably getting a -150/+140 line in favor of Kershaw in LA or -110 to -115 for Kershaw in San Fran... I have Kershaw power rated about 25 cents better than Vogelsong.
Therefore, based off Kershaw's -135 line against Vargas in Seattle, I have Vogelsong -110 tomorrow night. The opener of -120/+110 presented value on the M's.
Think of it this way...
Kershaw was just -135 on the road against Vargas... so how high do you think this line should be? -140? -145? You have Vogelsong power rated higher than Kershaw?
Based off a -105/-105 neutral line, home field is worth 15 cents... meaning if all things are equal (pitchers, lineups, bullpen), you get a -120/+110 line for the home team. If Kershaw is facing off against Vogelsong, you're probably getting a -150/+140 line in favor of Kershaw in LA or -110 to -115 for Kershaw in San Fran... I have Kershaw power rated about 25 cents better than Vogelsong.
Therefore, based off Kershaw's -135 line against Vargas in Seattle, I have Vogelsong -110 tomorrow night. The opener of -120/+110 presented value on the M's.
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