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WEDNESDAY HOMER PLAYS(17-1 run last 18 posts)

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Posted: #1

HOMER PLAYS 15-1+15.85 Units

I'm not going to bullshit you I've been EXTREMELY lucky during this run but my eyes have been opened and I now believe they are the single biggest factor in wagering on a game.  These guys are ego maniacs and I think MLB agrees and that is why they have appointed new supervisors this year and you will probably see instant replay next year.  All you guys who already have your money on sides and totals I strongly recommend you wait until the umps are posted.  I've only been betting the Homer umps but will expand to Over/Under plays as well. Will post later today as the assingments come out. Good luck and happy hunting.  MH

 
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Cant wait to see the plays
 
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Posted: #4
Quote Originally Posted by MistakeHitter:

HOMER PLAYS 15-1+15.85 Units

I'm not going to bullshit you I've been EXTREMELY lucky during this run but my eyes have been opened and I now believe they are the single biggest factor in wagering on a game.  These guys are ego maniacs and I think MLB agrees and that is why they have appointed new supervisors this year and you will probably see instant replay next year.  All you guys who already have your money on sides and totals I strongly recommend you wait until the umps are posted.  I've only been betting the Homer umps but will expand to Over/Under plays as well. Will post later today as the assingments come out. Good luck and happy hunting.  MH


I'm new to this thread and naturally very impressed with your record. Do you simply play on a home team who has a plate umpire with a favorable home team record or do you also factor other things in i.e. pitchers etc? Any explanation of your methodology would be greatly appreciated. And how do you plan to approach totals, the same basic way? Thanks in advance.

 
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Posted: #5
Quote Originally Posted by tommetrojan:


I'm new to this thread and naturally very impressed with your record. Do you simply play on a home team who has a plate umpire with a favorable home team record or do you also factor other things in i.e. pitchers etc? Any explanation of your methodology would be greatly appreciated. And how do you plan to approach totals, the same basic way? Thanks in advance.

I've capped absolutely nothing.  Just bet on Home teams(obviously) with an Umpire with a more than 66% win rate for the home team.  With Overs I'll be looking for umps calling less than 62% strikes, AL teams mainly in Hitters parks.  Unders will be Ump calling more than 63% strikes, NL games in pitcher parks. 
 
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Posted: #6
The totals wont have to meet all criteria.  I didn't post it but had a huge bet on the Under in philly because it was Halladay vs pitt with an ump with a huge K zone(not to mention the tarp on the field kept both teams from getting any BP)
 
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Posted: #8
Where u get this umpire numbers MistakeHitter? thanks, and Good Luck today.
 
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by chicawowwow:

Where u get this umpire numbers MistakeHitter? thanks, and Good Luck today.
Covers.com in matchups and statistics and MLB.com
 
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Posted: #10
thats a very interesting approach, i'm going to follow you today MH. been having a off week. GL!
 
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Posted: #12
when do the umpires usually come up

 
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Posted: #13
mistakehitter, can you accept my friend request?
 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by WillyWonka:

when do the umpires usually come up

When there is a new series they dont post til an hour (sometimes less) before the game.  It sucks and I dont know any way to get them sooner and have asked A LOT of people.
 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by BarryZuckercorn:

mistakehitter, can you accept my friend request?
Yeah.  I dont see it in my space though
 
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by MistakeHitter:

Yeah.  I dont see it in my space though


I sent a request a few days ago but I just realized I can pm you without being friends. Check your messages in a couple minutes.
 
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Posted: #17
can't wait to see your play MH,
 
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Posted: #18

Quote Originally Posted by MistakeHitter:

I've capped absolutely nothing.  Just bet on Home teams(obviously) with an Umpire with a more than 66% win rate for the home team.  With Overs I'll be looking for umps calling less than 62% strikes, AL teams mainly in Hitters parks.  Unders will be Ump calling more than 63% strikes, NL games in pitcher parks. 

Which AL parks do you consider hitter friendly and which NL parks do you label pitchers yards?

 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by tommetrojan:

Which AL parks do you consider hitter friendly and which NL parks do you label pitchers yards?

https://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor
 
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Posted: #20
Hoping for an Under ump in that White sox game and that Oakland game
 
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Posted: #21

My first totals play is Over 9-111(mb) in Pitt

Ump 5-2 over and a tight strike zone, 60.86% strikes with 2 pitchers who may struggle.

 
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Posted: #22
BOL MH
 
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Posted: #23

Keep up the good work & GL MH

 
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Posted: #24
Doesn't look like we'll get much action today on the 7 pm games hopefull there's a homer or two in the later action.
 
 
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Posted: #25

Totals play  Under 9-101(mb) in NYM/Nats

Umpire timmons 2-6 Under with a 63.29% k rate

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