@Strych9
Your typical 7,8,9 hitters are not studs and a lot of them should still be playing double and triple a ball. Payroll for the Yanks and payroll for the A’s are on 2 different planets. So yeah the Yanks should be -300 fave over the A’s in a home game situation with a pitcher who is 10-2 team win/loss in his 12 starts and 6-0 at home. We play spreads in football and basketball all the time but always wanna shun the -300 faves in MLB when those games it’s the spread or the dog ML because yeah teams will not win every game in a series when they’re priced at -300 in all 3 games of a series. Astros last year at home against the Tigers comes to mind
@Yabbo1979
Take it we are the same age. Anyway, as someone who has played this game all my life and spent 6+ years playing AA ball I can assure you that 95% of the guys that are in the bigs are "dudes" buddy. I dont care where they bat in the lineup they can all play ball at a high level. Nowadays, guys spend less time playin A ball and there time it takes to get to the bigs is accelerated, so you may see some really young kids that maybe aren't ready for the show just yet. But make no mistake about it they are there for a reason and can play ball!
Also, in a bunch of mlb lineups there is very minimal difference b/t the leadoff and 8 or 9 hitters. A common misconception is that guys batting 8 or 9 are batting there b/c they are the worst hitters on the team and in many instances that's not the case at all. They are put there b/c they are high obp + contact + spd guys.
Detroit shite the bed. Really stinks b/c I think we had a good shot at that parlay. If Gallen can find some f'n control maybe we can get over our HA prop. He has plunked 4 of the first 8 batters and that is going to hurt us on the prop b/c he is already at 54 pitches in the 2nd. Not looking good, but we will see what happens.
@Yabbo1979
After doing some research. I've changed my position on this. I was wrong! I found this below which supports your arguement:
Moneyline to Percentages Conversion Chart
Favorites
+/-100 = 50%
-110 = 52.4%
-120 = 54.5%
-130 = 56.5%
-140 = 58.3%
-150 = 60%
-160 = 61.5%
-170 = 63%
-180 = 64.3%
-190 = 65.5%
-200 = 66.7%
-210 = 67.7%
-220 = 68.8%
-230 = 69.7%
-240 = 70.6%
-250 = 71.4%
-260 = 72.2%
-270 = 73%
-280 = 73.7%
-290 = 74.4%
-300 = 75%
Underdogs
+/-100 = 50%
+110 = 48%
+120 = 45%
+130 = 43%
+140 = 42%
+150 = 40%
+160 = 38%%
+170 = 37%
+180 = 36%
+190 = 34%
+200 = 33%
+210 = 32%
+220 = 31%
+230 = 30%
+240 = 29.4%
+250 = 28.6%%
+260 = 27.7%
+270 = 27%
+280 = 26.3%
+290 = 25.6%
+300 = 25%
And so I would certainly agree that in some instances there are games where a team is about a 75% probability to win a game. BUT, my position was that with 2 MLB teams the difference in talent IS NOT that big of a difference in 95+% of the games to warrant a money line of > -300.
The ghost runner in extras is just to speed the game up without depleting the 14 man. Way to many games were going into the 13 inning and past and this was causing bullpen to be depleted. Leading into higher scoring games during that week, which led to longer games.
The mlb believes people don't watch or attend baseball bc the games are to long.
Established in 1995,
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