Weeble's Wednesday Picks

Luke Scott’s rbi single in the bottom of the 9^th to get me at least a push on my 2-unit Bal/Chi over bet.

Alex Cintron flying out with the bases loaded to end the game and prevent the over.

Greg Smith allowing 4 runs in the 3^rd to basically screw my Angels team total bet before the game was an hour old.

A scoreless 5^th through 8^th at least let me hit my game under, though.


: Atl/Fla O8.5, Cle/Det O8.5, LAA/Oak U7
: Tex/KC O9, LAA TT U4.5


All picks = 1 unit.  1 unit = whatever the hell you want it to be.

Yesterday: 3-2-1, +0.73 units. 

Week to date: 4-6-1, -3.68 units. 

Since All Star Break: 129-106-12, +13.61 units.


Stats provided below each pick are only a guideline, and are not the only reason for the bets themselves.

White Sox Team Total Over 6, -114  (2 UNITS)
Orioles/White Sox Over 11, +110
The over is 11-0 in Liz’s last 11 starts on grass
White Sox destroying RHP in their last 10 games
Orioles, despite a recent tail off, still hitting well lately
Liz has an 8.74 ERA in his last 8 starts
Liz has a 7.32 ERA in his last 4 home starts
An average of 14.44 runs have been scored by both teams in Liz’s last 9 starts
An average of 11 runs have been scored by both teams in Danks’ last 8 starts
Danks has a 5.12 ERA in 2 career starts vs Baltimore
Tim Welke is the plate ump (averaging 10 runs/game and 6-2 to the over in the past 2 months)

Astros Team Total Over 5, +101
Fogg has an 11.20 ERA in his last 8 career starts vs Houston (talk about having someone’s number)
Fogg has a 9.55 ERA in his last 5 starts
Fogg has a 9.28 ERA in his last 5 road starts

Indians/Tigers Over 8.5, -118
Verlander  has a 7.74 ERA in his last 10 starts vs Cleveland (9-1 to the over)
Verlander has had 2 quality starts in a row (but they were vs Bal and KC). He had a 9.97 ERA in his prior 4 starts
Verlander had given up 13 ERs in 8.1 IP in his 2 home starts prior to his start vs Baltimore 10 days ago
An average of 14.57 runs have been scored by both teams in Carmona’s last 7 starts (6-1 to the over)
An average of 10.71 runs have been scored by both teams in Carmona’s 7 career starts vs Detroit
An average of 12.5 runs have been scored by both teams in Reliford’s last 6 games behind home plate

Padres Team Total Under 3, -101 (First 3 stats courtesy of BetCrimes)
Padres have scored 2 runs or less in 15 of their 22 games at home vs LHP this season
Since the break, the Padres have scored a total of 2 runs in their 5 home games vs LHP
Padres are averaging 2.6 runs/game in their last 10 home games vs LHP without Peavy as their starter
Randy Johnson has a 1.96 ERA in his last 9 starts
Randy Johnson has given up 2 ERs in 12.1 IP in his last 2 starts this season vs San Diego
Randy Johnson has a 2.95 ERA in his last 8 career starts vs San Diego


As always, GL to all.